Here's Why Broncos Should be Able to Afford Re-Signing Key Defensive Free Agents

The Denver Broncos are expected to have $68.7 million in cap space for 2020 (which includes carryover, now that Over the Cap has adjusted figures with the trade deadline having passed) and fans will soon wonder where the Broncos will commit their cap dollars next season.

We'll talk more about potential free agents in the weeks to come, but let's ask ourselves the question about where money is best committed and see how the Broncos look in terms of their long-term cap commitment picture.

Player cap hits for veterans can be categorized into five types: premium (more than $15M), second-tier (more than $10M, up to $15M), mid-tier (at least $6M, up to $10M) lower-tier (at least $3M but less than $6M) and cheap (less than $3M). The highest cap charges for a draft pick are mid-tier (at least until fifth-year options for certain first-round picks come into play), but most will be cheap.

For the premium veterans, if you do a proper job of drafting and developing a quarterback, that quarterback will be one of the premium cap hits. The other should preferably be a pass rusher, because that's the most valuable position on defense.

A team that manages its cap space well and drafts well should be able to accommodate four second-tier hits, which should go to an offensive tackle, a cornerback, a wide receiver and the possibility of one other position of choice.

For that other position, ideally it's among interior offensive line, safety, off-ball linebacker or tight end. However, it should only go to one such position. Otherwise, you're better off looking at mid-tier cap hits for them whenever possible.

Running back and defensive linemen who specialize in run defense (mostly nose tackles) are really the positions in which it's best not to have a big cap hit but with running back, certain players are getting into the higher tiers.

How you are able to distribute your cap hits for veterans goes back to what the "non-veteran" part of the roster looks like. Players with three or fewer accrued seasons mostly get cheap contracts and cap hits each year, which is what makes them so desirable. The more you have who contribute to your team in important ways, the more flexibility you have to add other veterans to fill holes.

It's true the Broncos have multiple veterans that are under consideration for extensions and people will wonder how you can keep them all. But this is where we go back to looking at those players with three or fewer accrued seasons to see what they bring, along with veterans who will be under contract next season.

When you look at the Broncos roster, it's not hard to figure out that the Broncos should be prepared to invest cap space into the defense this coming offseason, whether that's through extending current players or finding other free agents.

Let's examine why by looking at each position, identifying who is under contract for 2019, the cap hit and any potential roster cuts.

Quarterback: Joe Flacco will have a $23.65M premium cap charge next season. As has been discussed multiple times, cutting him means $13.6M in dead money with $10.5M freed.

After that, the Broncos will have Drew Lock, who has a cap charge of $1.5M next season. Brandon Allen, who will be a restricted free agent, would have a cap charge of a little more than $2M if given the right of first refusal tender. If the Broncos decide to roll with Lock and Allen as their top two QBs next year, they are in a good position to commit cap dollars elsewhere.

But if the Broncos aren't convinced Lock is the answer, they will be targeting a QB in 2020 in the draft, which would also result in a cheap contract. And while it's understandable that people will be skeptical of John Elway, given his past habits with veteran QBs, he's reached the point in which he can't go with an expensive bridge QB — he's going to have to look for lower-cost veterans who are there to compete with a rookie for the job and more likely to spend the season as the backup.

With any luck, Lock and Allen will each do enough to convince the Broncos to go with them. That brings us to the rest of the offense, in which our examinations are more to the point.

Running back: Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman combine for a $1.7M cap charge. Having a quality duo that cheap is a great thing because the Broncos have the ability to commit cap space to other positions that demand more of it.

The only addition this offseason will likely be a running back added through the draft or UDFAs. A cheap veteran can't be ruled out, but you can definitely rule out the Broncos spending big money on a veteran.

Wide receiver: Courtland Sutton has firmly established himself as the No. 1 wide receiver and he comes with a cap charge of $1.8M next year. He'll remain cheap in 2021, too, before it's time to consider an extension. Every other receiver coming back next year won't take up much cap space — the next biggest will be DaeSean Hamilton at $830,060.

The Broncos might be looking for a receiver to pair with him, but the emphasis should be on a receiver with the speed that makes him a deep threat. Again, the draft is probably the best place to go, because free-agent wide receivers can get expensive.

Tight end: Jeff Heuerman has a lower tier cap charge of $4.5M, but the Broncos could gain $4M if they cut him. If that happens, Noah Fant would have the highest cap charge among tight ends at $2.8M, with the next highest cap hit at $810,000 for Jake Butt.

Because Fant has shown promise, it goes without saying the Broncos have no need to pursue a tight end in free agency. If they move on from Heuerman, better to replace him with a draft pick or UDFA.

Offensive line: Right tackle Ja'Wuan James has a cap charge of $13M, a second-tier hit. Unfortunately, the Broncos will have to ride it out with him next season.

The Broncos are also committing $3.5M in cap space to Garett Bolles (a lower-tier cap charge), but might consider it sunk costs, because chances are good they will draft a left tackle to replace him. They might also consider a cheap veteran in free agency, but that should only be a cheap one-year deal for a player who is either the bridge to a draft pick or becomes the swing tackle.

Ronald Leary has a $9.375M cap charge that is a higher-end mid-tier hit. The Broncos could ride it out for another year with him or decline his team option. It all depends on whether or not they think the $8.5M in cap space freed is needed to address other positions. If his option is declined, they are looking at a cheap deal for a young player to fill that hole.

Dalton Risner has a cap charge of $1.6M, great value for the left guard position. That leaves center, in which Connor McGovern is an unrestricted free agent. The Broncos could extend him, add a veteran center in free agency or roll with Austin Schlottmann, who has a $585,000 cap charge.

It's possible that a decision about Leary comes down to if the Broncos roll with a veteran cap hit at center — whether it's McGovern or another free agent — or if they go with Schlottmann.

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Offense summary: In 2020, the largest cap hits on offense are going to come from James and either McGovern or Leary — unless the Broncos are convinced that Flacco stays. (For the record, I'm not counting on that happening.) Otherwise, the Broncos will have mostly cheap options on offense.

And that could allow them to commit more to the defense. Let's summarize what to expect:

Interior defenders: The players who will be under contract next season are DeMarcus Walker ($1.6M), Dre'Mont Jones ($952,000) and Jonathan Harris ($585,000). Mike Purcell is a restricted free agent, but the lowest tender will be a little more than $2M, representing a cheap cap hit.

That means the Broncos do have the flexibility to keep one of Shelby Harris or Derek Wolfe and ride out a higher cap hit while they are able to benefit from cheaper players on offense. The Broncos should be able to keep that player at a second-tier cap hit.

Meanwhile, Adam Gotsis, the other pending free agent, would likely have to take a cheap veteran deal if he wants to stick around.

Edge rushers: The Broncos are set with Von Miller and his premium cap hit of $25.65M, and Bradley Chubb and his mid-tier cap hit of $7.4M, which is between mid-tier and second-tier but good value for a quality pass rusher. The other two, Malik Reed and Justin Hollins, are cheap cap hits that combine for about $1.2M. It goes without saying that the Broncos are set here and don't need to explore free agency at this position.

Off-ball linebacker: Alexander Johnson's emergence means the Broncos have a starter at a cap charge of just $660,000. Todd Davis will enter the final year of his contract and his $6M cap charge is at the lower end of the mid-tier. Backup Josey Jewell has a cap charge of $838,000.

There will be a decision to make about Joseph Jones, who will be a restricted free agent. If the Broncos don't keep him, finding either a cheap veteran, a draft pick or a UDFA will be necessary.

But with Johnson's emergence, there is now far less of a need to spend big money in free agency.

Cornerback: There is, of course, the decision to make about Chris Harris, Jr., who will come much closer to commanding a premium cap hit this time around. However, it should be possible for the Broncos to work that cap hit in if Harris wants to stay.

The Broncos will have to weigh their options with Bryce Callahan, who has $3.5M in fully guaranteed salary due in the form of a roster bonus. The Broncos are on the hook for that, but they might be able to renegotiate to otherwise reduce his mid-tier cap charge of $8.3M.

Otherwise, the Broncos have cornerbacks under cheap contracts, ranging from Davontae Harris (exclusive rights free agent, which should be about $660,000) to Isaac Yiadom ($884,000 on his draft pick deal).

With mostly cheap talent (other than Callahan) on the roster next year, the Broncos do have the flexibility to keep Harris or add a veteran in free agency.

Safety: The Broncos are committing a second-tier hit to Kareem Jackson, but the good news is that he's contributing in a big way. And this is where the advantage of having a cheap wide receiver and likely a cheap quarterback further comes into play.

It's no secret that Justin Simmons is going to be in line in for a big payday and likely command a premium cap hit. The good news is, because the Broncos are on cheaper contracts at other positions, they can commit the cap dollars to Simmons.

Jackson's deal runs out after the 2021 season, the same point at which Courtland Sutton will be up for an extension. You can thus use the cap space freed from Jackson's expiring contract to extend Sutton.

Of course, that means the Broncos have to think about drafting a safety in 2020, so they can groom somebody behind Jackson. That's particularly important with Will Parks set to hit free agency.

What it Means for the Future

So what does it all mean for 2020 and the future? We'll consider a scenario that illustrates how this works.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that you keep Chris Harris, Jr., Shelby Harris and Justin Simmons, cut Joe Flacco, keep Ronald Leary and let all other free agents depart. In that scenario, your cap dollars are mostly committed to Von Miller, Kareem Jackson, Ja'Wuan James, the two Harrises, Simmons and Leary, with other players taking up mid-tier, lower-tier or cheap deals.

In 2021, Leary's deal expires and Bolles' cap hit (which will apply in 2020 whether he's on the roster or not) will be gone and you will have the possibility to move on from James and Callahan. Thus, you'll have more cap dollars available and, if you draft well, you could find yourself with a cheap offensive line, but possibly add a veteran in free agency at one position. You can still keep Miller, the two Harrises, Jackson and Simmons.

In 2022, that's when it's time to extend Sutton and pick up Chubb's fifth-year option, but now the deals for Miller and Jackson have expired. Perhaps you keep Miller around a bit longer, but if you keep drafting well, you will have other cheap talent to work with while still being able to extend other players.

In other words, you don't need to be afraid to commit cap dollars to the defense this coming season. As long as the Broncos draft well and find more offensive players like Sutton, Fant and Risner (and, fingers crossed, Lock turns out to be the QB you can build around), they'll be able to keep more dollars committed to the defense until it's time to start extending those on offense who deserve extensions.

At the same time, they should still have enough cap dollars available to extend any of the younger players who are showing promise. Remember that when it comes time for somebody like Alexander Johnson or Davontae Harris to get extended, others could be nearing the point where it's time to move on.

But it's clear the Broncos need to take advantage of every player on offense with three or fewer accrued seasons as much as they can, because of the cheap deals they'll be under for the coming year. Therefore, they shouldn't be afraid to spend money on the defense this offseason.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.