Predicting if Broncos Franchise-Tag DL Dre'Mont Jones
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The NFL informed teams that the 2023 salary cap would be $224.8 million, and with that, the numbers for the franchise tags are also now known. The Denver Broncos only have one plausible franchise-tag candidate.
Dre'Mont Jones is no longer under contract, and the word was the Broncos put a pause on all contract extension talks during the season. Jones had a solid start to the 2022 campaign, where he was among the top-5 defensive linemen in multiple advanced statistics, but things did start to fall off. Despite a team-high 6.5 sacks, Jones' up-and-down season has made the situation with his contract status a little more complicated.
So is the franchise tag an option for Jones? The Broncos can place either the non-exclusive or exclusive tag on him. The non-exclusive tag would allow Jones to talk with other teams, giving Denver the right to match any offer or take two first-round picks.
That seems the unlikely route, as it's doubtful a team would be willing to make a substantial financial commitment to Jones while giving the Broncos two first-round picks. Therefore, the amount for the two is the same.
Another option is the transition tag, which isn't as much as the franchise tag, and Denver would keep the right to match any offer. However, the Broncos would get no compensation if they didn't match the deal, so the lack of potential return with the team's salary cap situation, which is decent but not great, it seems like the exclusive tag is the way they go.
If Denver placed the exclusive franchise tag on Jones, it could look at trading him and getting something in return while not committing the amount of money. How much the tag would cost would depend on what position Jones gets classified as, with the Broncos likely to claim defensive tackle while he would likely push back as a defensive end. Odds are, he would win the dispute with where his snap totals are, with 510 of his 715 total snaps coming in a defensive end position.
So the question becomes, is Jones worth that, and if he isn't, what is he worth? According to Over The Cap, Jones' valuation is about $7 million, which feels relatively low.
However, when OTC breaks it down by week, six of the 13 weeks Jones played saw him garner a valuation of over $10 million and five over $14 million. So the higher portion of that range seems to be where he will ultimately fall, if not higher.
Cameron Heyward is making $16.4 million on an average-per-year basis, with Kenny Clark at $17.5 million. Jones will likely push for a figure in that range. So let's say he wants $15 million apy; the question switches to whether it's worth paying him about $4.7 million more to ensure he stays in Denver.
There is a legit concern that Jones wants out of Denver, especially after the Broncos traded away Bradley Chubb. As a result, he would be a hot commodity on the open market, which could see a price increase with a bidding war, which his agents will surely factor in.
If Denver were to place the franchise tag on Jones, it would make him the fifth-highest defensive lineman in terms of apy. Is that ideal? No, but sometimes it is worth paying a little more to keep a player.
Ideally, Denver gets a long-term extension done without using the franchise tag. However, using the tag also buys the Broncos more time, and they still have the option of trading Jones.
Either way, a franchise tag or long-term deal would be a good sign from Broncos ownership to players by rewarding Jones for his play. However, that's a concern since they traded Chubb, partially due to concerns about paying him and Jones this offseason.
Jones isn't worth the franchise tag, but it isn't significantly more than what he is worth to make a massive fuss over potentially committing more money to keep him. He has proven to be a difference-maker on the defense as he was in the top-10 in pass-rush win rate and pass-rush productivity among defensive linemen with at least 440 pass-rush snaps.
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