How Broncos can Overcome Melvin Gordon's Overpaid Contract

The Denver Broncos made a somewhat curious signing during the offseason, giving ex-Chargers RB Melvin Gordon a two-year contract worth $16 million with $13.5M fully guaranteed. This came on the heels of Phillip Lindsay posting his second straight 1,000-yard rushing season.

Despite my research into the subject, I'm still of the opinion the Broncos overpaid Gordon, particularly in terms of the fully guaranteed money, because of the idea that teams shouldn't pay big money to running backs on a second contract.

However, I did a little more research to see if I could understand why so many running backs haven't lived up to that second contract, and to understand why the Broncos thought it was still reasonable to pay Gordon. Along the way, I hoped to find out what was really the best way to utilize Lindsay, regardless of whether or not Gordon was brought on board.

First, I examined multiple running backs who, at one point or another, were considered to be among the better backs in the NFL. I particularly examined those backs that get utilized a lot in the offense, focusing on the number of games they played, the number of carries they had, and the yards they gained per carry.

Focusing on carries is more meaningful to determine how productive a back will be over time, because that's when they take more punishment from tackling. When a back is catching a pass, the back is less likely to enter situations in which, for example, he has to push multiple defenders in hopes of gaining more yardage.

Consider DeMarco Murray, for example. In his first season in the NFL, he carried the ball 164 times and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Over time, he got more carries, to the point that he carried the ball 392 times in 16 games, averaging 4.7 YPC, in his final season with the Dallas Cowboys.

The following season, Murray averaged 3.6 YPC on 193 carries in 15 games when playing for the Philadelphia Eagles. He was subsequently traded to the Titans, where he carried the ball 293 times in 16 games, averaging 4.4 YPC. The following year, his production dipped again, generating 3.6 YPC on 184 carries in 15 games.

We can see a pattern repeat itself when backs are asked to take a large workload. Doug Martin carried the ball 319 times in 16 games his rookie season, averaging 4.6 YPC. The following year, he played in just six games and averaged 3.6 YPC on 127 carries. He followed that with 134 carries in 11 games in his third season, averaging 3.7 YPC, then went up to 288 carries in 16 games, averaging 4.9 YPC.

No doubt Martin was productive in the years when he got a lot of carries, but it also wore him down.

Todd Gurley also got a lot of work in his first five seasons in the NFL. He averaged 253 carries per season and, while he was great in his three of his first four seasons, averaging nearly five YPC (the only season was his second, in which he averaged 3.2 YPC). But his production dropped to 3.8 YPC last season and he was subsequently cut.

Jump over to Ezekiel Elliott, who has been productive his first four seasons, but has carried the ball a lot. In three of those four seasons, he's carried the ball at least 300 times. The only time he didn't was his second season, in which he missed several games because of a suspension. But he still carried the ball 242 times in 10 games. Take that average number of carries and stretch it over 16 games and he has 387 carries that season.

While it's not a guarantee that Elliott gets 387 carries, it does indicate the Cowboys are likely giving him at least 300. That makes me worried that he's going to decline this season because he's been utilized so much.

A Pattern Emerges

I won't go over every example, but I found the pattern of backs getting carries that approach or exceed 250 per season shows that said backs don't stay productive for long. Also, if a back gets 300 or more touches in a single season, it's not unusual to see his production drop the following year. Consider that when you look at Derrick Henry, who posted a season-high 303 carries last year.

Now let's switch over to a couple of backs who were productive in their second contract.

Lamar Miller wasn't bad when he signed with the Houston Texans, after spending his first four seasons with the Dolphins. Miller didn't get a lot of carries earlier in his career, with the most being 216 carries in 16 games in his third season, in which he averaged 5.1 YPC.

The Texans, though, utilized him more in his first season with the team, in which he carried the ball 268 times in 14 games, averaging 4.0 YPC. The following year, Miller's production dipped to 3.7 YPC, with 238 carries in 16 games. He fared better in his third year with the Texans, averaging 4.6 YPC with 210 carries in 16 games, though he missed last season with injuries.

An even better example is Mark Ingram. He didn't see a lot of action earlier in his career, missing 11 games in his first three seasons. He played all 16 games in his second season but only carried the ball 156 times, averaging 3.9 YPC.

Ingram's fourth season is when he got more involved in the offense and he was productive, even after he got his second contract from the Saints. From his fourth to his eighth season in the NFL, he averaged at least 4.3 YPC each season — and he never got more than 230 carries in a season. His best season was his sixth as a pro, with 5.1 YPC on 205 carries in 16 games.

What helped Ingram was being paired with a good complementary back. Alvin Kamara, who was paired with Ingram his first two seasons, has never had more than 200 carries in a single season in his first three years in the NFL. Yet there's no question he gets results. For example, this past season, he averaged 4.7 YPC while carrying the ball 171 times in 14 games.

Kamara was paired with Latavius Murray, another back who hasn't had a lot of carries in his career. Murray did carry the ball 266 times in 16 games in his third season, averaging 4.0 YPC. Otherwise, the most he's had in a single season is 216. Last season with the Saints, he carried the ball just 146 times in 16 games, but he averaged 4.4 YPC.

In other words, the Saints have avoided putting too much of a workload on their running backs in recent seasons. Instead, they've utilized Kamara a lot in the passing game. Ingram and Murray are solid pass catches, but that isn't their specialty.

Instead, the Saints have focused more on utilizing Kamara with Ingram (Kamara's first two seasons) and Murray (this past season) so they aren't wearing Kamara down because of over-utilization.

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Gordon's Trajectory

Let's now examine Gordon. He's had two seasons in which he's carried the ball more than 250 times. His second year, he carried the ball 254 times in 15 games, averaging 3.9 YPC. His third year, he carried the ball 284 times in 16 games, again averaging 3.9 YPC.

His fourth season saw Gordon's carries decline but his production per carry increase. He had 175 carries in 12 games and averaged 5.1 YPC. However, his fifth season saw his production dip, with 3.8 YPC on 162 carries in 12 games.

That does concern me and is why I say the Gordon contract is an overpay. However, I will acknowledge that Gordon is a good pass catcher and brings an element the Broncos have lacked from their backs in recent seasons.

Lindsay is, without a doubt, a great between-the-tackles runner. He averaged 5.4 YPC as a rookie, with 192 carries in 15 games. That year, his talents were well utilized but his carries were kept in check, which I believed maximized his production.

His carries went up a bit last year to 224 in 16 games, but he stayed productive at 4.5 YPC. The only issue is, last season, he didn't have the RB who complemented him well.

Royce Freeman looked the part as a rookie, but he suffered a high ankle sprain and has ceased to develop further. Devontae Booker wasn't bad when paired with Lindsay two seasons ago, but the coaching staff changed and Booker fell out of favor.

Lindsay isn't a bad pass catcher, but he's not a reliable one, either. He's best utilized as the guy who can run between the tackles and get out into open space, while catching pass once in a while.

But as we've seen, too much running between the tackles isn't good for a back's long-term prospects. Just look at DeMarco Murray, Todd Gurley and Doug Martin — and they aren't the only backs with that issue.

Saints' Model Offers a Blueprint

Now, look at what the Saints did when they had Ingram and Kamara together, and how they kept it going when Ingram moved on and Latavius Murray replaced him. They found a way to keep both backs fresh and maximize their production in the running game.

Of course, Broncos' OC Pat Shurmur hasn't really utilized a two-back set throughout his career — though it's worth asking if he would do it more often if given the chance. He did do that when DeMarco Murray played for the Eagles, when Murray was paired with Ryan Mathews.

Shurmur also did this with the Vikings during Dalvin Cook's rookie season, but after Cook was lost to injury, Shurmur utilized Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon in a split backfield.

But it's worth noting that Shurmur likes to have a running back who can catch passes. Mathews provided that with the Eagles and McKinnon provided that with the Vikings. That would explain the Gordon signing, because he is a good pass catcher, bringing an element that isn't among Lindsay's strengths as a player.

Broncos Still Overpaid

I still believe the Broncos could have gotten Gordon for less money, though. Going back to Mark Ingram, he signed with the Ravens last year for $15.5M over three years with $6.5M fully guaranteed. His previous second contract with the Saints (the one that followed his rookie deal) paid him $16M over four seasons with $6.1M fully guaranteed.

At the very least, I think the Broncos could have gotten Gordon for less fully guaranteed money — say, two years at $12M, $6M fully guaranteed, with incentives that would allow Gordon to earn more money.

Regardless, I can understand why Gordon was added, but in examining how backs have been utilized elsewhere — particularly looking at how the Saints have done it — one thing is clear: Gordon can't be carrying the ball 250-plus times in a season. And truth be told, neither should Lindsay, because it's not the best way to maximize his production.

Therefore, the Broncos should strive to keep Lindsay around 200-210 carries while Gordon has 180-190 carries, but Gordon gets utilized more in the passing game. Doing that would keep both backs from wearing down too much in between-the-tackles running, while still getting a return on investment for Gordon.

The key, of course, is both backs need to stay healthy (and the Broncos really need that from Gordon), because unless another back emerges who can be a good complementary piece, the Broncos could be forced to over-utilizing a back who is better served by not carrying the ball 250-plus times in a season.

We'll see what the Broncos have planned, but the smart money says that it's better to avoid over-reliance on a single back, because that only leads to the back declining sooner. Limit his carries and, regardless of how much you utilize him in the passing game, you'll get a better return on your investment, however much it is.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.