PFF Forecasts Safety as Broncos' Biggest Remaining Need Entering NFL Draft
The Denver Broncos have made some waves this offseason by being arguably the most active team in what has been the most explosive free agency period in NFL history (including the number of monstrous trades that have occurred). While the amount of cap space the Broncos have remaining is fluid and could be manipulated easily by restructuring a few contracts here and there, Denver is most likely done with splash moves prior to the NFL draft.
Barring a surprise transaction, the eyes of Broncos Country should start to turn towards April and the 2022 draft. The Broncos do not possess their first and second-round picks anymore at picks 9 and 40, but thanks to the wheeling and dealing of GM George Paton, the team still has three selections in the top-100 and five selections in the top-120.
If last year’s draft class is any indication, fans can expect Paton and the scouting staff to identify some key contributors in the draft that the Broncos can select in this range. It’s unlikely the Broncos sit back and stay pat at their current selection given Paton's propensity to move around the board, but the question now becomes: which position will Denver target with its first draft selection, and are there any specific prospects the team may be focusing on
Pro Football Focus' draft-centric podcast Tailgate is hosted by Austin Gayle and Mike Renner and this week, they discussed which direction the Broncos can and should go on one of their latest episodes. Gayle discussed Denver's first need entering free agency as somewhat shored up by adding edge rusher Randy Gregory.
“The Denver Broncos you listed their position of need as edge defender. They signed Randy Gregory to a five-year, $70 million dollar deal. Not totally shoring up the need there. I always feel like you can add pass rushing help… Their biggest need now shifts to safety… Their first pick isn’t till pick 64. Maybe they lock into a Kerby Joseph, Illinois…Jaquan Brisker, Penn State, Nick Cross, Maryland.”
This is a rather deep safety class. Perhaps at pick 64, the Broncos are also hoping Baylor’s Jalen Pitre falls to them who would be a great fit for a team wanting to live in nickel and dime personnel as a more modern NFL defense.
Maybe Michigan’s Daxton Hill is a name that could fall, too. Less discussed but talented options at safety in this class include Cincinnati's Bryan Cook and Iowa Dane Belton.
A few ex-cornerback prospects, who used to be cornerback but might move to a nickel safety spot at the NFL level, include Tennessee's Alontae Taylor, Auburn's Roger McCreary, and Houston's Marcus Jones. The Broncos are reportedly interested in playing more dime personnel next season, so adding talent to the safety room is certainly an area the front office could and should look to.
In the AFC West, given the quarterback and pass-catching talent, there is no such thing as too much defensive back talent. However, could Denver still make a move in free agency to add another weapon for the defensive backfield?
Gayle thinks the Broncos should at least.
"Why not go get Tyrann Mathieu right now? He’s going to cost a lot of money and I get that… but I would really like to see them get Tyrann Mathieu to pair up with Justin Simmons. That would be sick.”
Adding Mathieu to the Broncos’ secondary would certainly be “sick," not only for his versatility but for the narrative aspect of going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos could use some tenacity on defense with Kareem Jackson still a free agent, and Mathieu would certainly add that as well as supreme versatility for first-time defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.
Renner pushed back, though, saying while Denver could look to add a safety, there are a few guys already on the roster to consider as well which could push Denver to look at other positions.
“Truthfully we liked Jamar Johnson a ton coming out of last year they got him in the fifth. Caden Sterns they got in the fifth. (if not safety) then I turn my eye to linebacker because Alexander Johnson is still a Free Agent. Baron Browning flashed a lot the second half of last year but I wouldn’t call him ready to be full-time starter just yet. So linebacker in this deep class could be where they look at 64. They could go offensive line. They could go a number of ways. I don’t think the Broncos really need to be pigeonholing into any one place. They could just add talent to this roster really anywhere.”
Ideally, entering the draft, a roster is so filled out without any massively gaping needs that the team can look at the entire draft board and simply sit back and take good players. Going into the draft at any pick (outside of first overall) and saying “we must draft position X” is a recipe for failure.
This becomes even more true the farther one gets into the draft. There are no sure things, so don’t limit your board to a singular position. You increase your odds for drafting a bust or missing superior talent by doing so. It’s simply a horrible process.
The Broncos could add an offensive tackle to develop and compete for the right tackle spot, or they could target a tight end to help replace Noah Fant. Denver could honestly add talent to any defensive spot at any point in the draft and it wouldn’t be a bad move for the team.
Paton should feel comfortable having maximum flexibility to fill out the roster. Any remaining holes can be addressed with cheap, short-term free-agent signings after the draft and closer to the season kicking off.
The Broncos may not have the No. 9 and 40 overall picks anymore, but after landing a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson and solving the rest of their most pressing and immediate needs, Paton and company can go nearly any which way come April’s draft.
It's a position every team ideally wants to be in, but not every roster affords the opportunity. With the flexibility the roster-building to date has given Paton, it’s anyone's best guess as to which direction the Broncos will go when they make their first official selection in the 2022 draft.
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