QB Guru Reveals How Drew Lock can Capitalize on Closing Window of Opportunity
John ‘J.T.’ Thomas O’Sullivan knows football, especially the quarterback position. Sullivan amassed a wealth of knowledge after playing two seasons in NFL Europe while suiting up for nearly half of NFL teams, including the Saints, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Patriots, Panthers, Lions, 49ers, Bengals, Chargers, and Raiders.
When the journeyman QB hung up his cleats, he launched a YouTube channel with over 91,000 subscribers called The QB School.
The QB School features in-depth analysis from O’Sullivan who completed his Ph.D. in Leadership Studies from the University of San Diego in 2017. He’s well-respected among NFL analysts, players, and coaches.
Unsurprisingly, O'Sullivan has evaluated Denver Broncos' QB Drew Lock in both 2019, and 2020.
In a conversation on Tuesday with Nick Ferguson and Cecil Lammey on 104.3 The FAN's Nick and Cecil show, the ‘Professor of QBs’ revealed his thoughts on the regression of Lock’s performance.
“So much of playing quarterback at a high level revolves around context and luck," O’Sullivan told Ferguson and Lammey. “You get to already go through a couple of coordinators and you’ve fought through some injuries, and you’re in a tough division. All of a sudden, this is not that easy of a Sunday gig. The consistency element of it needs to continue to show itself and be more present.”
For Lock, his sophomore year in the NFL can be described as disappointing. In last season’s five-game sample size, he boasted a 64% completion rate with a 7-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. However, in the five full starts under his belt this season, Lock’s completion percentage has dropped to 56% with a 6-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio.
With the Broncos sitting at 3-5, some fans suggest that Lock’s lack of progress and inability to win games translates to another failed QB in Denver. Others in Broncos Country feel that these painful and familiar defeats are to be expected and that the play-calling has been the major problem.
The truth with Lock’s play lands somewhere in the middle. While play-calling has been suspect, to say the least, from offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, Lock hasn’t done himself any favors with his mechanics and turnovers. But there have also been reasons for optimism and excitement about the prospect of Lock as the Broncos' future franchise QB.
“There are impressive throws. I mean, throws that make everybody go, 'Wow,'" O'Sullivan told the FAN. "If he can do that consistently and drive the ball like that, they’ve got a chance to be really special. At this point, the windows of opportunities for guys, it doesn’t matter where they are drafted, it seems like its shrinking and shrinking.”
Turnovers, third-down conversion rates, and establishing momentum are what have plagued the Broncos' offense. Poor coaching and poor execution also have resulted in Denver being outscored (121-64) in the first half of football games.
To put that in perspective, the Broncos average 22 points per game, but only eight of those points come in the first half of games. The inability to move the football early in games results in Denver scoring points late in the fourth quarter, which is often referred to as ‘garbage time.’
Since college, the knock on Lock has always been about his mechanics, specifically his footwork. At times, he shows the ability to clean it up and deliver dimes to his receivers. But more often than not, it appears Lock reverts to old habits, forcing the football downfield and throwing off of his backfoot.
O’Sullivan was asked about Lock’s poor footwork and tendency to retreat backwards, or to drift to the right of the pocket.
"Footwork, like any position in football, is played from the ground up," O'Sullivan said. "It’s one of the foundations and stepping stones to be able to play at a high level consistently.”
Surely not every successful QB has ideal footwork and throwing fundamentals. So why is it other QBs with poor footwork and throwing mechanics can find success and win in the NFL?
“I think when you get to talk about guys who play on Sundays, so many of them have unique, rare arm talent. I wasn’t that type of guy. I threw a lot of changeups," O’Sullivan said. “The guys out there consistently can throw the ball really hard and off-platform. So, it makes people think that’s the norm, and that isn’t the norm. Many young guys when they come into the league, they’ve gotten there based on their athletic ability or arm talent. It’s a steep learning curve when you get into a system that’s based on rhythm, timing, and anticipation.”
Comparisons between Lock’s success with ex-coordinator Rich Scangarello and Shurmur were bound to happen this year, but not the way it's happening now. When it was announced last January that Shurmur was hired, the assumption was his spread offense would allow Lock to thrive based on his familiarity at Missouri working from shotgun.
In fact, it’s done just the opposite. Scangarello’s rendition of the West Coast Offense utilized Lock’s athleticism to manipulate defenders both inside and out of the pocket with play-action and bootlegs. As it turns out, Scangarello was O’Sullivan’s QBs Coach during his playing days at UC Davis, and the ex-journeyman weighed in on the importance of fit for both offensive coordinator and signal-caller.
“Any coach, let alone Pat Shurmur, who I don’t know, can bring their system and everything that they know about football and try to instill it," O'Sullivan said. "That clashes with what someone else has done. It is absolutely about fit, but it’s the coach’s job to be adaptable enough to find ways to allow their players to thrive.”
Since returning from injury against the New England Patriots in Week 6, Lock’s film shows that he’s only reading half of the field. His timing is off with receivers because there’s a lack of time for routes to develop and he’s not progressing through all of his reads.
Opposing defensive coordinators have lasered in on Lock's penchant for staring his receivers down on hot reads, and as a result, he has thrown at least one interception in the last five games.
“As a play-caller, if you know that your quarterback and your decision-maker is struggling with those things, you can construct concepts and plays for them not to worry," O'Sullivan told Ferguson and Lammey. "A simple read would be if there’s a middle field safety or the middle of the field is closed, we’re going to the right. If there’s two safeties, we’re going to the left and it's going to be a quick throw. Well, then there’s no way to stare down a receiver because it happens in a heartbeat. This is a matchup-player driven league, we need to find our best matchups and let our playmakers thrive.”
Follow Luke on Twitter @LukePattersonLP and @MileHighHuddle.
