Broncos Dumping Russell Wilson for a 'Cost-Controlled' QB Doesn't Add Up
Russell Wilson doesn’t look like prime Peyton Manning, so the Denver Broncos should get rid of him. That is the consensus narrative for most analysts and fans after last week's loss to the Houston Texans. After one bad game, the opinion is that the team should get a cheaper option.
This comes from the prevailing opinion that NFL teams have to build around a rookie quarterback with a cost-controlled contract in order to get to the Super Bowl. There's no originality any longer. This mantra is repeated over and over.
However, the facts point to there being more than one way to build a championship-caliber team and that having a cost-controlled rookie leading the offense rarely leads to a Super Bowl appearance.
First, let's dismiss the idea of a 'cheaper' quarterback and stick to a cost-controlled rookie contract. There are plenty of inexpensive quarterbacks out there, but they are cheap for a reason. Bringing in a quarterback who isn't good but is cheap wouldn't change the Broncos’ fortunes.
We can explore the success rate of building around a cost-controlled rookie quarterback. Over the last decade, many teams have had the opportunity to use this tactic.
From 2013-20, 17 quarterbacks have been selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft. Only two have made it to the Super Bowl as the starter for their team.
Furthermore, in the last 10 seasons, only five teams have gone to the Super Bowl with a first-round drafted quarterback on his rookie contract. Two of them were the Kansas City Chiefs, meaning this tactic has only worked for three other teams.
Those three other teams did not win the Super Bowl. Interestingly, five teams have also reached the Super Bowl using a free agent or a trade to get the quarterback that took them to the big game. Three of them won the big game. Two different tactics with nearly the same result.
Dropping Wilson in an attempt to draft a first-round quarterback of the future would not guarantee the Broncos would become a Super Bowl contender. That doesn’t mean Denver shouldn’t try, but the 'cost-controlled quarterback is the only way' mantra is the buzz phrase that people seem to grab onto and hold dearly, even though free agency and quarterback trades work just as well.
For those who think the Broncos should just get a quarterback after round one for Sean Payton to mold, let's examine his track record of drafting quarterbacks. In 2021, Payton's New Orleans Saints drafted Ian Book in the fourth round, who played in one game and is out of the league.
Payton has drafted two quarterbacks in the seventh round, Sean Canfield (2015) and Tommy Stevens (2020). They had a single game played between and were out of the league almost immediately.
Finally, Payton drafted Garrett Grayson in the third round back in 2015. If any of the quarterbacks Payton drafted could have been molded into an NFL-caliber starter, Grayson seemed like the right candidate. The Colorado State product didn’t even make the roster and was quickly out of the league.
Broncos GM George Paton’s record drafting quarterbacks isn’t much better.
The Takeaway
Finding cheap quarterbacks is quite easy. Finding an inexpensive quarterback who can put the team in contention for a title is extremely difficult, even when drafting early in round one.
This is not to say the Broncos shouldn’t take a shot on a QB when they can. The Broncos should draft a quarterback until they hit on a long-term option.
What Denver shouldn't do is dump Wilson for a bad quarterback based on cheap vs. expensive criteria.
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