Broncos Need Answers Before Deciding on Russell Wilson in 2024 & Beyond
After the Denver Broncos' 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans, which featured an uneven performance from Russell Wilson, some are raising questions about the quarterback's future and the best direction to take after the season.
But when it comes down to Denver's coming decision, it's a simple question: Do the Broncos believe they can commit to Wilson through the 2025 season?
Wilson is due a $22 million option bonus and a $17M base salary in 2024. That money is fully guaranteed.
Additionally, Wilson is due a $37M base salary for 2025 that is injury-only guaranteed but becomes fully guaranteed if he's on the roster as of March 21, 2024.
When it comes to the 2024 salary, the only way to get out of that money is to trade him before the option bonus must be exercised. If the Broncos agreed in principle to a trade with another team before March 21, 2024, the team that acquires him would take the option bonus and exercise it, along with absorbing his base salary.
If the Broncos do not agree to such a trade before that date, they will not be able to trade Wilson without a significant impact on the salary cap. Thus, if the Broncos want to move on from Wilson in 2024 and cannot find a trade partner, they'll have to release him before March 21, 2024, and designate him a post-June 1 cut.
Such a cut wouldn't get the Broncos out of paying Wilson the money, nor would it provide any cap relief (Denver wouldn't gain or lose any space), but it would keep his 2025 base salary from becoming fully guaranteed and, thus, make the Broncos responsible for additional money.
In other words, the only reason the Broncos would do a post-June 1 designation cut of Wilson would be to get out of a cash commitment in 2025, not to get out of cash commitments in 2024.
Some have suggested the Broncos could renegotiate Wilson's contract. However, when it comes to renegotiating the money he's due in 2024, don't count on it.
Because that money is fully guaranteed, Wilson and his agent have no incentive to renegotiate the amount. They know if Wilson is cut, he still gets the money. There are offset clauses, but Wilson and his agent could just take a one-year, low-cost deal from another team and collect most of the money from the Broncos.
The 2025 salary is different because it's injury-only guaranteed. However, to get Wilson and his agent to renegotiate, the Broncos would have to make some type of concession to the QB. While not impossible, it could be difficult, and the Broncos might not think it's worth it.
For those who argue that Wilson's contract will make it too difficult for the Broncos to properly build the roster, that's not necessarily the case. Yes, it means the Broncos have less cap and cash to commit to other positions, but the team would have to make tough decisions regardless of what it opts to do with Wilson.
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) in the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High.
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The fate of players in Denver, whether it's a guy in the final year of his contract or in a contract year who has been subject of trade talks, is independent of whatever decision is made about Wilson. Teams make decisions about such players all the time, but they make them independent of the quarterback and his contract.
It's true a more expensive QB means less cash for other positions, but that doesn't mean every roster decision is influenced solely by what you pay the signal-caller. Furthermore, the best way for a team to build its roster is through the draft.
While it's not a perfect process, teams that do a good job of identifying players and developing them can make things work with a QB who has an expensive contract. When it comes to Wilson, the Broncos have to ask the question about whether they think his play in 2023 justifies committing money to him through the 2025 season.
If the team thinks he's worth it, then keep him. If not, the Broncos will find a way to move on.
At one point, there may have been justification for benching Wilson. When the Broncos were 1-5 and looking like a team needing a full rebuild, there was a strong case to make for not committing to Wilson through 2025. Moving on in 2024 would be painful, but better to deal with the pain in 2024 than extend the agony into 2025.
But because the Broncos are in the playoff hunt, benching Wilson doesn't make sense, even if he's coming off a less-than-impressive Week 13 performance. He's starting for the rest of the season, barring an injury.
Wilson's play down the stretch will likely be the main factor in the Broncos' decision about his future. The Broncos might also consider their draft position at season's end and what that means as far as potentially drafting a QB, but that won't likely be the main factor.
While the Broncos should draft a QB in 2024 to at least compete for the backup job, they have no guarantees of getting a prospect who'd be ready to start sooner rather than later, given where their first-round pick will fall. It's possible the Broncos could keep Wilson and pass on QBs early in the 2024 draft but grab one in the later rounds and keep an eye on the 2025 class.
A trade for a young QB can't be ruled out, but the Broncos shouldn't overpay for one because those who may be available are ones that their current teams simply don't want any longer.
Bottom Line
Regardless, what it comes down to with Wilson is this: The Broncos' decision about his status after the season will depend on whether they want to commit to him through 2025. Such a decision will be made solely based on the Broncos' opinion of Wilson, not based on any other factor.
Only time will tell what the Broncos decide to do, but Wilson's performance down the stretch will likely give fans a harbinger of what to expect.
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