Russell Wilson's Deep-Ball Accuracy, Ranking Will Surprise Broncos Fans
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You don't have to be any great football expert to deduce that the Denver Broncos' 2023 success will hinge largely on the redemption of quarterback Russell Wilson. In a pass-oriented league, that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Since head coach Sean Payton started putting his stamp on things at Broncos HQ, he has injected a cautious degree of optimism that Wilson can find his footing again. Among the offensive chaos in Denver last year, there were few moments when the 'vintage' Wilson showed up — though they were fleeting.
Broncos fans did catch a few glimpses of the dynamic mobile quarterback of old, and it mostly came when Wilson let the ball fly downfield.
Statistical evidence supplied by Next Gen Stats reveals that Wilson still possesses a propensity for throwing an accurate deep ball. Based on NGS' metrics, Wilson ranked No. 7 out of the top 10 deep-ball passers in the NFL. Here's a look at the stats:
- Deep attempts: 26-of-73, 1,008 yards, 6:2 TD-INT, 99.8 passer rating
- Deep comp: 35.6%
- Deep xComp: 33.7%
- Deep CPOE: +1.9%
- PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99
NFL.com's Nick Shook said this of Wilson's stats, writing on his statistical findings.
"This one shocked me, and I suspect it will shock others, as well. When I started this exercise, I didn't think Wilson would have much of a chance at ending up in the top 10, primarily because, well, he had a bad season. But despite the wide-ranging problems with Denver's offense in 2022, Wilson was surprisingly effective when it came to airing it out.
"He finished with the second-most deep attempts and passing yards of any qualifying quarterback, with a significantly better TD-to-INT ratio than he put up on non-deep throws (10:9). Wilson deserves credit for posting these numbers despite being pressured on nearly 40 percent of deep attempts.
"Of course, one of the reasons he was pressured so much when going deep is likely that he tended to hang on to the ball too long and played slower than usual in 2022. I'm not trying to rewrite history here. We all suffered enough when watching the Broncos' offense last season to know things weren't exactly great. Even when throwing deep, Wilson wasn't elite, as reflected by his CPOE on deep threats, which helped pull him into the lower half of this group. However, one cannot deny that Wilson put points and yards on the board with his passes downfield.”
The numbers pointing toward Wilson still having a capable deep-game conflict with the perception that he's damaged goods. However, there are a number of factors that could see Wilson even significantly build on his deep ball performance of last year.
Firstly, Wilson gets Payton working in his corner and will line up behind a vastly upgraded offensive line which returns former All-Pro Garett Bolles to protect his blindside. Furthermore, the insertion of wide receiver Tim Patrick back into the mix, should, in theory, provide Wilson with another target who can contest jump balls downfield.
Also, Broncos' wideout Jerry Jeudy is projected to have a breakout season alongside dynamic second-year pass-catching tight end Greg Dulcich, so burning past defenders could be a very real feature in Payton's offense.
It’s anticipated that Courtland Sutton will still be a major factor in the Broncos' passing game, and with stud running back Javonte Williams likely to be on a pitch count to start the season, unleashing rockets downfield on the play-action game might prove quite effective.
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