ESPN: Russell Wilson Lands in NFC South, Broncos Draft Tulane QB
Even before Russell Wilson was benched, fans disagreed greatly about whether he was the long-term starter in Dove Valley. Now that the Denver Broncos’ offseason has begun, Wilson’s departure is coming sooner rather than later.
The question of who will line up under center in Denver has only become louder just two years after the blockbuster trade for Wilson. ESPN has projected what it believes the Broncos will do at quarterback.
Let’s start with cutting Wilson. Unfortunately, after spending a fortune on draft picks and money to bring Wilson to Mile High, he’s being pushed out the door just two years later. In ESPN's scenario, he lands with the Atlanta Falcons, signing a three-year, $36 million deal — a far cry from the $49M/year deal the Broncos gave him little more than a year ago.
How he fits with the Falcons: The Falcons learned this season what below-average quarterback play can do to a franchise's playoff hopes. Owner Arthur Blank and CEO Rich McKay made it clear the plan is to win with this roster, and Wilson is the best option out there and has the most experience. The team around him would take pressure off Wilson, with playmakers Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London and Kyle Pitts all set for big roles in 2024. And the contract terms also allow for a fairly painless separation if it doesn't work out. I considered a Fields trade, too, but here Atlanta retains its second-round pick and gets a quarterback upgrade on a decent deal for coach Raheem Morris
The Broncos hired Sean Payton with the expectation that he’d fix Wilson and elevate him to his former glory. However, Payton was brought in to coach the entire team, not just the QB, and what he saw from him was not enough to keep Wilson under center going forward.
Best-case scenario, cutting Wilson means eating upwards of $72 million over the next three years, and there is little to no chance the Broncos will be able to trade him to another team because of his contract.
ESPN's article spit-balls a few different scenarios that could play out in Denver this offseason. In one, Denver looks to free agency, signing Indy starter Gardner Minshew.
The new contract with Denver: Two years, $14 million, fully guaranteed. The deal would add in $500,000 if Denver wins the AFC West and $250,000 if it makes the playoffs, plus $500,000 for playing 70% of the offensive snaps and another $500,000 for 80%.
Minshew threw for 3,305 yards this past season, with a 15-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 13 starts. The Indianapolis Colts finished the season 9-8 with him under center, which can be attributed to the fantastic job that new head coach Shane Steichen did with the offense. Minshew has mobility and a decent arm, but to say he’d be a significant upgrade over Jarrett Stidham would be a stretch.
While Stidham didn’t show immense promise in his two starts for the Broncos, he also didn’t receive first-team reps all season. Sean Payton picked up Stidham in free agency because he felt he was an excellent fit for his system. It's possible the Broncos go the Minshew route, but they’d be better served saving a few bucks by sticking with their in-house talent.
In ESPN's final scenario, the Broncos round out their quarterback room through the draft by selecting Tulane's Michael Pratt in the third round. Local beat writer Jeff Legwold writes:
The Broncos will be dealing with a tight salary cap after releasing Wilson, limiting what they can do at quarterback. With just six picks in this draft -- including only two in the first two rounds -- they also don't have the firepower to trade up for someone, and they need their future draft capital to improve an aging roster. But Pratt would give Payton a ground-floor rookie to work into his offense from the start. He is big and physical, showcases top-shelf throwing mechanics, and processes well. Pratt might be a bit of a reach in Round 3, but he is still an ascending prospect and is worth a long look.
Pratt has the solid arm strength and elasticity to make throws off platform. His accuracy in throwing downfield is quite impressive and would serve him well in the Payton offense. Pratt threw for 9,611 yards, 90 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions as a four-year starter Tulane. He's competing at the Senior Bowl right now and has turned some heads.
If Payton believes he can mold a quarterback from this draft into a long-term starter, he’ll take the opportunity to draft them. If Denver foregoes selecting a signal caller in the first round, Pratt is an intriguing option for later in the draft.
The question of who will lead the Broncos’ offense in the 2024 season will be debated all off-season. Whether through free agency or the draft, Denver desperately needs to add quarterback talent to its team if it wants to succeed next year.
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