Here's Why the Best is Yet to Come With Russell Wilson & Sean Payton
From a statistical standpoint, Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is playing well, but those who criticize him have a right to. Statistics tell only part of the story.
Wilson has held onto the ball too long often and has made mistakes reading defenses. However, does that mean he's a terrible quarterback and should be benched?
Or is there something better coming that fans should expect? It's the latter.
How is it possible that Wilson would need more time in Payton’s system? Week 8 is in the books, and he should be amazing by now, or so goes the refrain. But that just isn’t the case.
All it takes is a little digging to find some evidence. First, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees took several games to find his groove in Payton’s offense in his first season back in 2006. Second, Wilson has had his worst games against some really good pass defenses this season.
Brees came to the New Orleans Saints in 2006 with Payton as the newly hired head coach. He had one Pro Bowl season under his belt with the then-San Diego Chargers and fit what Payton likes from his quarterback.
Yet, in the first seven games of the season, Brees struggled in nearly half of them. Brees finished the 2006 season with a trip to the Pro Bowl and a first-team All-Pro award. This award-winning campaign came on the back of his performances in the latter half of the season.
Brees passed for under 200 yards three times in the first seven games and only surpassed 300 yards in three games. His completion percentage was below his average three times, he threw seven of his 11 interceptions in those games, and his passer rating (for the era) was average to below average in four of those games.
After the somewhat shaky start, Brees blew the doors off the rest of the season and only had two poor performances. Now some could point to Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston in their first starts under Payton and say that they had good performances. You must remember that they were also the backup quarterback for a full year before they were starters in the following season.
Wilson may have needed time in the system before he really hit his groove. He has performed well in three games, below average to downright bad in the other five games.
However, Wilson has 16 touchdowns to four interceptions and a 66.1% completion percentage (above his career average). He's doing this while not being as good of a fit in Payton’s offensive scheme as Brees was back in the day.
To add more context, Wilson’s worst games have been against defenses ranked No. 2 (twice), No. 5, and No. 11 against the pass. These defenses have made Josh Allen, Trevor Lawerence, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff look mediocre to downright awful.
When Wilson has faced weaker competition, his passing has been solid. There are many ways to evaluate a quarterback, but one of those factors has to be the defenses he has faced.
Wilson may not be at a place in his career where he's exceptional enough to put the team on his back, but he isn’t a bad quarterback. He's made his mistakes, and some of them can be infuriating.
However, the notion of benching Wilson for Jarett Stidham is laughable. Wilson will prove it in the latter half of the year.
The Takeaway
Wilson’s best games are yet to come this season. Not only is his real-game experience in the system valuable, but he also has a less formidable row of defenses to face. He will go against the No. 32-ranked pass defense twice and will square off against units ranked No. 23, No. 22, No. 16, and No. 14 in the weeks to come. There are only three teams on the current schedule with a pass defense currently ranked in the top 10.
If Wilson cannot make hay in the final nine games of the season, then the Broncos need to evaluate his future with the club. However, it's more likely than not that Wilson will have a resurgence down the stretch.
Wilson is poised to end the season with a statistically good body of work and win more games than expected along the way.
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