Insider Predicts How Much Time Sean Payton Has to Turn Broncos Around
The Denver Broncos made the move everyone knew was coming on Monday, set to release quarterback Russell Wilson just two years after acquiring him in a blockbuster trade.
Though the Broncos finished 8-9 and were mathematically in the playoff hunt until the final weeks, head coach Sean Payton decided to bench Wilson for the final two weeks of the season. The benching came shortly after revelations that the Broncos had approached Wilson about renegotiating his contract to push back the injury guarantees he had for 2025.
Those injury guarantees are moot now that the Broncos are set to cut Wilson. Meanwhile, the team is dealing with the pain of massive dead money charges for the next two seasons.
Meanwhile, the question turns to the head coach. How much pressure will Payton now be under to succeed?
NFL insider Mike Tanier considered this, among other things, in his Substack post about the Broncos' past two seasons, the arrival of Wilson and Payton and the departure of the former.
Tanier mentions the failed experiment with Nathaniel Hackett, the failed pursuit of Aaron Rodgers, and what was, ultimately, the failed experience with Wilson, who was abysmal in 2022 and solid in 2023 but far from the greatness expected from a QB who signed a five-year, $245 million extension before the 2022 season got underway.
But Tanier also questions Payton, shining a light on what the head coach was really like in his time with the New Orleans Saints:
Payton was dictatorial with the local press, groused about officiating like the angriest fan at the bar and allowed Gregg Williams to run the defense as if he were a Spider-Man villain, but even the BountyGate suspension did not stick to Payton’s reputation. Most fans consider Bill Belichick a joyless grouch, Mike McCarthy a credit-grabbing middle manager and Pete Carroll a Pop Warner coach/grandpa who drinks too much coffee. Payton left New Orleans as a cipher with a Super Bowl ring.
After the Broncos sent multiple picks to acquire Payton's rights from the Saints, they gave him a lot of input. And while Payton did some good things and managed eight wins for the Broncos, several of them came because of luck, ranging from good fortune with turnovers to costly penalties that gave the Broncos a second chance at a game-winning field goal.
To be sure, not everything bad that has happened with the Broncos the past couple of seasons falls on Payton's shoulders. General manager George Paton takes the blame for the Wilson trade, regardless of what one thought about it then and the subsequent extension.
The signings of Randy Gregory, Ronald Darby, and D.J. Jones, as well as the decision to trade Bradley Chubb, are moves for which Paton bears responsibility. And, of course, there's the Hackett hire.
But since Payton's arrival, it's anyone's guess as to how much of the personnel decisions fall at the head coach's or general manager's feet. It's easy to blame Paton for everything, but should he be sent packing at some point, then what?
While Payton has done some good things, he's also made his share of questionable decisions. It's fair to blame the general manager for some things, but one shouldn't use Paton as an excuse to deflect blame away from the head coach — especially when said head coach has been given more control over personnel.
With that said, some might be prepared to forgive Payton, given the cap woes. After all, those cap woes came because Paton gave Wilson that big contract. Tanier recognizes this, though he suggets a person not named George can be blamed.
As for the Broncos, Payton now enjoys both unchecked power and enough excuses to keep him unaccountable for the team’s fortunes for several years. Wilson’s $85-million cap hit over two years alone will keep expectations low, and the Broncos are in no position to acquire any surefire quarterback solutions. Everything bad that happens for the foreseeable future can be blamed on Wilson.
Again, both Paton and Wilson deserve blame, but now the QB is gone, and who knows how much longer the GM will get? If Paton is the next to go, at whatever point that is, what will fans have to say about Payton?
I still have room for optimism, but that depends on what the Broncos do in the coming seasons. Along with needing a quarterback, the Broncos have plenty of other roster holes to fill. Despite that 8-9 record in 2023, the Broncos are not just a few players away from regular playoff contention.
The Broncos can improve their cap position for 2024, though they can't be aggressive in free agency. Denver can also find ways to accumulate more draft capital, though demanding a blockbuster trade to move up the draft board for a quarterback requires asking this question: Does Payton love the quarterback in question?
The Broncos will be in a better position in 2025, despite the dead money charges still lingering for Wilson's contract. But what the Broncos do in 2024 will tell the story about what to expect for 2025.
But as Tanier points out in his Substack, Payton will either succeed or fail — though Tanier says he expects the latter to happen. Only time will tell whether Tanier's expectation is correct or not.
Regardless, Payton got his way when it came to Wilson, despite the financial pain. Now the head coach must show he can win with whoever comes next.
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