True Cost of Acquiring Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay Actually Favors Broncos

Since the 2021 NFL draft, there has been speculation that the Denver Broncos will trade for four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. As soon as this past season ended, the heat on this rumor has been turned up to 11.

The Broncos are the betting favorite to have Rodgers at the helm of the offense in 2022. There has also been a considerable argument as to whether the cost to acquire Rodgers would be worth it.

It's difficult to know how many draft picks it would cost to land the NFL's reigning MVP, but for the sake of argument, we can safely estimate it at three first-round picks and a second-rounder. Significant draft capital.

The Broncos have struggled to find a viable quarterback since Peyton Manning retired. Acquiring an average-to-below-average leader of the offense has been very ineffective over the past six seasons.

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The Value of Denver's Future Round 1 Picks

The outlook for free agents and the draft this offseason looks bleak at the quarterback position. With this knowledge, we can assume that if the Broncos don’t acquire Rodgers, it's likely they will have a top-10 selection in 2023 too because the quarterback issues will likely remain unsolved.

The Broncos will likely have a top-10 pick in the next three drafts along with an early second-round selection in 2022 if they don’t execute the Rodgers trade. To understand the true cost of trading for Rodgers, we have to make a few assumptions.

First, Rodgers is an impact player. Second, he will be an impact player for at least three seasons if acquired by the Broncos. Third, to find equivalent value for Rodgers the draft picks lost in the trade would have been used to find an impact player, not just a decent starter.

Comparing the certainty of getting one impact player (Rodgers) from the trade to the lost potential of finding at least one impact player by using the probability of those draft picks, we can deduce whether the cost would be worth the trade. Based on the drafts from 2009-21, I've constructed a probability calculator that can provide the answer.

What is an 'Impact Player'?

One note: the definition of an impact player is any player drafted since 2009 who has at least one first-team All-Pro award or Pro Bowl selection.

The probability of finding at least one impact player with the estimated draft capital to acquire Rodgers is .89. That's a solid probability, but still less than definite.

Furthermore, that doesn’t mean that player would be a quarterback. It could be at any position and the Broncos could remain in the same quarterback purgatory that they're in now. To find three impact players with the picks the Green Bay Packers would take for Rodgers, that probability plummets to .12. Very poor chances.

Rodgers Boosts Denver's Playoff Probability

To dig in a little further, if the Broncos make the trade, their chances of making the playoffs greatly increase. This means the actual cost to acquire Rodgers is not the three top-10 and early second-round selections. The Broncos would be actually be trading away only one top-10 selection, two picks in late Round 1, and one in late Round 2.

Therefore the probability of the Packers finding an impact player from those picks is .75. That's a significant drop from the certainty of having an impact player like Rodgers. The probability of finding three impact players falls to .02. The Broncos would win the trade hands down.

People can assume that the Broncos would get an impact player with all their draft picks and others can assume they would get none. Such assumptions are based on nothing.

The draft is not an exact science and teams struggle to 'hit' on even half of their picks. By understanding this, using probability based on draft history is the most effective way to reach a true cost of trading draft picks.

What it Means for Denver

The cost of acquiring Rodgers is well worth it. The Broncos would win the trade and be contenders once again if they executed this trade, even with the hefty draft capital they'd have to relinquish to Green Bay.

Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL.

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