Broncos Can't Afford to Go 'All In' on a Move This Offseason

Denver Broncos fans are understandably disappointed that things haven't worked out with Russell Wilson thus far — particularly after the resources expended.

Between the multiple early draft picks plus three players sent to the Seattle Seahawks in the trade, and the massive extension that ties Denver to Wilson through 2025 unless he retires, the Broncos will have to exercise care in navigating the next couple of seasons.

But this is why, when the Broncos enter the 2023 offseason, they cannot engage in another "all in" type of move.

It's understandable that Broncos fans would want a new head coach. However, a trade for Sean Payton might seem ideal, until you realize the New Orleans Saints still control his rights for the next two years and will demand at least a first-round pick as compensation.

The Broncos do need to add a veteran running back, with Javonte Williams' health in question and all but Chase Edmonds (who is now on injured reserve) not under contract for next year. But a splash move to sign Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs could do more harm than good.

And the Broncos do need to rebuild the offensive line. But while right tackle should have some solid players available, the interior offensive line pool isn't as good. Trading for an offensive lineman is not a good idea — better to draft one, even if it means he'll take more time to develop.

Nor should the Broncos be thinking about trading up in the 2023 draft. Instead, trading down may be the smarter move, even if the Broncos' first-round pick (acquired from Miami via San Francisco in the Bradley Chubb trade) will likely be late in the round. The Broncos can stand pat if an offensive tackle they can't pass up is there, but trading down will get them more draft capital.

And in the upcoming draft, it would be wise for the Broncos to consider a quarterback after the first round, particularly if they are able to trade down. It at least gives them a fallback option in case Wilson doesn't improve under a new coaching staff.

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The rule of thumb when you do an "all in" move is that, if the move doesn't generate the results you expect, you should step back and reassess. This is what the better-run franchises in the NFL do all the time.

It's easy to look at the Los Angeles Rams and think they go "all in, all the time." However, that's an exaggeration.

After they made such moves and didn't get the results they expected, they were more likely to make changes, even if it came with some pain. The Rams also like to trade down — in fact, that's the reason why they had no first-round pick in 2019.

The Kansas City Chiefs were another team who was aggressive a couple of seasons ago after they lost the Super Bowl. But when they didn't even get back to the big game, they paused and reassessed to the point they decided it was better to trade Tyreek Hill for draft capital.

Finally, the Philadelphia Eagles are the most notable franchise that reassesses when things don't go as planned. There's no better example than after Carson Wentz's slump following the extension he received. The Eagles managed the situation the best they could, until they were fortunate to find a trade partner. Now they're back on track.

If Broncos fans want the team to return to the playoffs, they cannot insist on "all-in" moves every season. The team will want general manager George Paton to reassess the team's position if a big move doesn't get results. That way, there's a better chance for the Broncos to recover.

The good news is that Paton acquired more draft capital with the Chubb trade, even if it came with the short-term pain of losing a quality player. He might gain additional picks if he decides to move another player this offseason, but he at least has more picks to work with than he did after the Wilson trade.

Also, the Broncos' cap situation is manageable, even with Wilson's contract. The last thing Broncos fans should want is for Paton to use all the cap space and then be forced to restructure everyone, which only makes the situation worse down the road.

The best way to think about 2023 is to look at it this way: Short-term pain may be there, but there's a chance for long-term gain if you navigate the short-term well.

However, focus on short-term gain with another "all in" move, and you may find yourself with more long-term pain.

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