Broncos Have Slim Odds of Landing an Impact DL in the 2023 Draft

The Denver Broncos parted ways with defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones this offseason, replacing him with Zach Allen, who is a very solid replacement. Many seem to forget that the other starter at defensive end left in free agency, too.

DeShawn Williams signed in Carolina, and that creates a hole in the Broncos' D-line rotation. If not addressed appropriately, it will put the Broncos in a bind.

These offseason moves have created a starting lineup of Allen, D.J. Jones, and Mike Purcell, with second-year players Matt Henningsen and Eyioma Uwazurike as the key backups. Jones is a force in the middle, and Allen will be a solid player on the verge of his best seasons.

However, Purcell has not been nearly the player he was in 2019, and Henningsen and Uwazurike will need to make large jumps in their second season for the D-line to reach its potential, which doesn’t always happen. The Broncos defensive line will be entering the offseason as a thin position group. Furthermore, Purcell future is a bit murky.

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If the Broncos decide to fill this group out in the draft, it's not an overwhelming positive decision. Finding defensive linemen in the draft is not an easy task for a team that doesn’t start drafting until the third round. This position is one of the hardest to find in comparison to others, and the probability of landing an impact player in the later rounds is very small.

In Round 3, the probability of selecting an impact D-lineman is 0.117, which is not very likely. It's worse when attempting to select an interior defensive lineman — 0.074. That means that if the Broncos selected 10 interior defensive linemen in the third round, only one would be an impact player.

It doesn’t get better as the draft marches on. Even if the Broncos did something crazy like using both third-round selections, their fourth and their fifth-rounder on an interior defensive lineman, they'd have only a 0.323 probability of landing an impact player.

Furthermore, defensive linemen take time to develop. It's rare that they step in as a rookie and play at a high level.

Typically, D-linemen hit their prime at 25 years old, which means that even if the Broncos do get lucky in the draft, the payoff won’t happen in 2023. It could be 2025 before that player really becomes a key cog in the defense.

What it Means

Believing that the Broncos can easily address their D-line needs in this year's draft is misguided. The Broncos should explore some experienced players who are still out there in free agency.

If the Broncos can convince one of those players to join the club on a team-friendly, one-year deal while they determine the future of their young players and draft situation, it would be very beneficial for the 2023 season.

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