Broncos Draft Class: Analytics Predict Each Pick's Odds of Success

NFL draft grades are fun for some, but they don’t predict how drafted players will perform. However, the past can be used to predict the future.

The draft is not immune to this type of treatment. Using probabilities by position from drafts that have already occurred and those who made it or didn’t make it in the big leagues can give an indication as to the Denver Broncos' haul this year.

By examining the positions selected in each round, we can compare them to the past to see if those positions “hit” in the NFL. Based solely on a position-by-round analysis, how did the Broncos do in the draft in 2023?

Round 2

In the second round, the Broncos selected wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. There is good news about taking this position in Round 2. The probability of a wide receiver becoming an impact player in the NFL when selected in the back half of the second round is 0.130.

That may seem like a slim chance of getting a great player, but it is the third-best of all positions. Furthermore, the probability of this position becoming a primary starter is 0.565 or better than 50/50.

That bodes well. If Mims doesn’t become an impact player, there is a greater chance than not of being a solid starter in the NFL.

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Round 3

The first selection in this round was Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders. This position ranks in the middle of all positions at becoming an impact player in the third round at 0.091 probability.

For becoming a primary starter, the probability is 0.485. The chances of Sanders sticking around as a starter in the league is solid.

The second pick in this round was cornerback Riley Moss. Unfortunately, this position seems to be the most reached-for position in the draft, as so many players taken at this position don’t pan out.

The probability of becoming an impact player is near zero, and 0.204 of becoming a primary starter if taken in Round 3. That does not indicate high success, and it is the worst of all positions.

Round 6

The Broncos selected safety JL Skinner in the sixth round. Unfortunately, this position tends not to work out when selected in this round. Players in this position have a 0.152 probability of becoming a primary starter in the NFL.

That is more likely that Skinner will become a fringe player or worse. The good news is that it is the third-best of all positions, so the Broncos could not have done much better if they had selected a different position in this round.

Round 7

The final selection of the night was center Alex Forsyth. Players taken in the seventh round tend not to make it in the NFL, but interior offensive linemen are one of the better positions at sticking around. They have a probability of becoming a primary starter of 0.105 or third best of all positions.

What it Means

Regardless of the evaluations of the specific players selected or what I think of their skills, the probabilities are what they are. They paint a picture based on the thousands of players selected in previous drafts.

Can these particular players beat the odds and succeed in the NFL? Absolutely, and for the sake of Broncos fans, at least a couple have to for the team to succeed. However, the chances of all of these players succeeding in the big leagues are very slim.

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