Broncos' Final 2023 Record Predicted by 'Supercomputer' Simulation

The Denver Broncos are on a roll. Winners of four in a row, the Broncos are riding the NFL's longest active winning streak.

After starting the season 1-5, the Broncos now sit at an even 5-5. Fans and media alike are plausibly engaging in postseason talk relative to Denver.

But the road ahead is tough. With seven games remaining, how will the Broncos finish down the stretch?

Action Network put its 'supercomputer' to work on the answer, simulating the entire NFL season 100,000 times to predict average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. After Week 7, the 'supercomputer' predicted Denver would finish 5-12.

Running the simulation process again after the Broncos' Week 11 win over the Minnesota Vikings, and Denver is predicted to finish 8-9. Such a finish, per Action Network, would give the Broncos a 19.4% chance at making the playoffs, which is better than the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers.

A bit of background on the 'supercomputer' simulation process:

Simulates the entire NFL season 100,000 times, predicting average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. Heading into the season, each NFL team is rated by expected points for and expected points against, based on previous performance and anticipated progression and regression of each team. Its expected points model takes into account the expected points a team earns play-by-play across each NFL game they play.

Whether one is inclined to buy into simulation claims, 'supercomputers,' or oddsmakers (who set Denver's over/under win total at 8.5 before the season began), the Broncos have more than a puncher's chance at earning the team's first playoff berth since 2015. But it won't be easy.

Here's a look at Denver's remaining schedule.

Week 12: Cleveland Browns (7-3)
Week 13: at Houston Texans (6-4)
Week 14: at Chargers (4-6)
Week 15: at Detroit Lions (8-2)
Week 16: New England Patriots (2-8)
Week 17: Chargers
Week 18: Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

If Sean Payton can manage to keep this team healthy, anything is possible. The injury bug is the wild card in any NFL team's outlook.

It's bitten the Broncos hard in years past, but Payton's hires and philosophies have seen the injury bug mostly zapped since the 2023 season began (knock on wood). Maintaining Denver's rate of takeaways over the past three games (12 total) will be difficult, but Vance Joseph's suddenly predatory defense has already defied the odds and statistical probabilities, so it's hard to buy into the "unsustainable" murmurings.

If Russell Wilson can continue to improve each week, and Payton can unlock the key to an explosive Broncos' passing game, this team will continue to stack wins. By virtue of the ugly hole they dug to open this season, the Broncos' margin for error from here on out is slim, slim.

The AFC is a quality conference with a lot of good teams this year. An 8-9 finish is unlikely to qualify Denver for a Wild Card.

I'd wager seven losses as the floor or a 9-7 finish. That would give the Broncos a two-game margin for error, but even that would be no guarantee of qualifying for a Wild Card playoff spot with how stacked the AFC is.

Tim Tebow's Broncos won six straight back in 2011 after Kyle Orton led the team to a 1-4 start. The Broncos winning the AFC West that year was a miracle.

The following season, Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, but the Broncos didn't get off to a great start, going 2-3. A wild comeback victory in San Diego on Monday Night Football sparked the Broncos to an 11-game winning streak to secure both the division crown and the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed.

Joe Flacco and Jacoby Jones ruined that particular run, along with some poor end-of-game decision-making by then-head coach John Fox.

Each Broncos squad in those two seasons had its turning-point game. In 2011, it was a romping beatdown of the Raiders that sparked Tebow's six-game run. In 2012, it was Manning's historic comeback.

The Broncos have already hit that turning point — the 24-9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8 that snapped a heretofore 16-game losing streak to that bitter division rival. Some analysts worried that beating the Chiefs would be Denver's 'Super Bowl' and that it'd be all downhill from there. However, since then, the Broncos have been an entirely different team, in the best sense.

With all due respect to Action Network and 'supercomputers,' all bets are off when it comes to predicting how the Broncos' 2023 campaign will shake out.

Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.

Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!