Broncos' Free-Agent Spending & Losses Ranked by Over The Cap

The Denver Broncos spent big in free agency this year, a factor many would attribute to the power of the new owners and their deep pockets. However, because the Broncos didn't have much in terms of draft capital this year, that also factored into the approach.

The Broncos ranked among the biggest spenders in free agency but lost a few players to other teams, too. When all was said and done, the Broncos were in the NFL's top five in terms of contract value added to the team.

Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap examined which teams gained and lost the most in free agency in terms of contract value and what each team's position looks like for 2024.

The Broncos ranked second in terms of contract value added at $64.2 million. Only the Chicago Bears exceeded Denver, with $74.7M in contract value added.

The Bears and the Broncos were a tale of two different teams. The Bears had $100M in cap space entering 2023 and have quarterback Justin Fields on a rookie contract. The Broncos, meanwhile, didn't have anywhere near that cap space and are trying to get Russell Wilson's fortunes turned around after giving him a large extension before the start of the 2022 season.

As for contract value lost, the players the Broncos lost in free agency accounted for $34M in contract value. That left the Broncos with a net APY change of $30.1M gained, which put them fourth among NFL teams.

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As Fitzgerald notes, the expectation is that the Broncos should be a better team in 2023, at least on paper. How that translates to on-field success remains to be seen, though.

Then comes 2024, in which the Broncos are expected to be just $4M under the cap, assuming a base cap of $256M. Fitzgerald's estimate is because he expects the cap to jump considerably after the past three years saw the NFL "borrow" from future cap years to make up for revenue lost in 2020, with no in-person games because of the pandemic.

Regardless of whether or not the cap takes that much of a jump, the Broncos won't have a lot of cap space without cutting some players or restructuring contracts. What happens in 2024 depends on how things unfold in 2023.

Obviously, Wilson needs to perform well in 2023, or the Broncos will have to deal with the pain that comes with a post-June 1 cut in 2024. However, regardless of what Wilson does, other players will need to perform well to stick around.

The likes of OT Garett Bolles, FS Justin Simmons, OLB Randy Gregory, WR Tim Patrick, and DT D.J. Jones have no guaranteed money for 2024. If any of them don't perform well in 2023, they'll be in danger of being cut to save cap space.

The good news is that, should the Broncos have to release Wilson, they can do so without taking a negative impact on the cap by using the post-June 1 designation. It would still leave the Broncos with a lot of dead money, but it won't dig them into a deeper cap hole.

But the other players mentioned would result in the Broncos gaining cap space if they are released. Furthermore, their fates aren't tied to Wilson. Even if Wilson bounces back in 2023, the others mentioned could be released if their play declines.

Also, because Denver spent so much money in 2023 and spent more in 2022 after the Wilson extension, it's likely they spend less in free agency in 2024. If you look at the teams that have been known to spend money, they do so for a season or two, then pause for a year to sort things out.

The Broncos would then be more likely to replenish the roster via the draft in 2024. Denver will have a first-round pick next year, plus six additional picks at this time (they have no second-rounder but have two-thirds).

Bottom Line

The Broncos will have to mind the cap in 2024 but will have some flexibility to clear cap space, plus more draft capital with which to replenish the roster.

New owners or not, the Broncos still need to watch their cap situation and not dig themselves into a hole, particularly when they must demonstrate that they are a legitimate playoff team. Additionally, Denver isn't necessarily going to spend tons of money, year after year in free agency.

It was one thing to go big in free agency in 2023, but moving forward, the Broncos will need to take the "build through the draft" approach. When it comes to spending money, it will be better devoted to drafted players who prove they are part of the long-term picture.

In other words, while we may not see the Broncos spend big in 2024, they could spend big in future years if they continue to draft well. But right now, Denver made its statement with its big spending in free agency. It's now up to the Broncos to get results.

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