Broncos’ 9-2 Record Clashes With Their Surprising DVOA Ranking

The Denver Broncos have the best record in the NFL, but they're not even close to the top of the latest DVOA rankings. Why is there a discrepancy?

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) talks with head coach Sean Payton in the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos sit atop the AFC West and the Conference with a 9-2 record as they enter the bye week. It has been a mixed bag in terms of the Broncos' performances from week to week, but the bottom line is they're finding ways to win games, are a near-lock for the playoffs, and have a real shot at winning the division.

The fact the Broncos have had a mixed bag in terms of week-to-week performances would explain why they aren't necessarily ranked high when it comes to advanced statistical models. However, that means one must understand how the statistical model evaluates team performance.

Consider FTN Fantasy's DVOA, in which the Broncos are ranked eighth overall at 13.4%. The Broncos rank 17th in offense (-1.9%), fourth in defense (-15.7%), and 18th in special teams (-0.5%). Remember that, for defense, DVOA is better when it is negative.

Understanding the Metric

Aaron Schatz is the brainchild of the DVOA metric, and here's his ultra-short explanation of how it works:

"DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent," Schatz wrote.

To understand why the Broncos rank only eighth in DVOA, it goes back to opponent adjustments and the overall performance of the three units. On the former, the Broncos have had good showings against the Indianapolis Colts (third in overall DVOA), Kansas City Chiefs (fifth overall), and Philadelphia Eagles (sixth overall), but had poor showings in at least one phase of the game against the Tennessee Titans (32nd overall), Las Vegas Raiders (29th overall), and New York Jets (27th overall).

The Colts and the Chiefs have had their way against teams at the bottom of the NFL, while the Eagles have played a tough schedule, with their only other loss coming to the New York Giants in a Thursday game after the loss to the Broncos.

Furthermore, the Broncos' special teams have not been good for much of the season, which impacts the overall DVOA. The offense has also been an issue. While Bo Nix and company have played well in several games, there are just as many in which they didn't.

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How Broncos Can Improve

Sep 21, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) makes a pass as Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Teair Tart (90) defends during the second half at SoFi Stadium. | William Navarro-Imagn Images

The Broncos could improve their stock by taking care of business in the games they should win on paper. After the bye, the Broncos face back-to-back games against the Washington Commanders (who are dealing with a lot of injuries and a defense that has regressed) and the Raiders (whose offense remains among the worst in the NFL).

After that, the Broncos close out with four teams who remain in the playoff hunt to varying degrees. The Green Bay Packers might be the toughest test, as they rank seventh in DVOA. Then come the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been inconsistent but have shown they're capable of big wins, as evidenced by their blowout win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Broncos then head to Arrowhead Stadium in a game that might decide the Chiefs' playoff fate for the Chiefs — and might decide the AFC West if the Broncos still have at least a two-game lead in the division. The Chargers await in Week 18 and, if the AFC West isn't already decided by then, that game will likely be for all the marbles.

What it means for the Bronocs' DVOA rating is another story. The bottom line, of course, is that win-loss records are what determine divisional placement and playoff seeding. But DVOA provides perspective on how teams can be measured, which factors come into play, and the areas a team needs to improve.

The good thing is the Broncos arguably played their best game in all three phases against the Chiefs this past Sunday. To maximize their chances of winning the division and clinching home-field advantage in the playoffs, the Broncos need to keep doing so in their remaining games.