Courtland Sutton Could be Broncos' Version of Michael Thomas

When the Denver Broncos made the decision to hire longtime New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton to be their 20th coach in franchise history, the immediate thought was that his primary mission would be to fix the issues and poor play of quarterback Russell Wilson.

Wilson had just suffered through one of the worst statistical seasons in his career, launching several questions about whether the former Seattle Seahawks legend was past his prime and "washed up."

Wilson struggled mightily in a new offensive system under Nathaniel Hackett last year, and a big reason for those miserable outings was the massive onslaught of pass-rush pressure up front. Behind a ramshackle offensive line that was missing several players that originally started the season with huge roles, Wilson also continued his display of holding onto the football to extend the play rather than delivering the ball with timing and accuracy. It's been a long-standing issue with the mobile signal caller for the majority of his career.

Enter Payton, who brings with him a knack for generating a dynamic, quick passing game, as well as the ability to create high-quality offensive line play. Check both of those boxes off in the primary mission.

But another aspect that Payton brings is placing his offensive weapons in a position to succeed, with one specific example being Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas.

Thomas, famously known as 'The Slant God' amongst NFL front offices, had one of the best single-season receiving performances in NFL history back in 2019. This big-bodied possession receiver had an incredible knack for creating separation early in the down to present a reliable weapon for quarterback Drew Brees on slant, curl, and quick-out routes.

According to Football Outsiders, Thomas lead the league in the Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric when running the slant route in 2019. In a nutshell, DYAR measures the performance of when a receiver catches the football in certain situations and against certain opponents, compares those plays to replacement-level players in the same situations, and evaluates the outcome in terms of yardage.

Basically, Thomas gained an extra 132 yards above replacement level in 2019, almost 20 more yards than the next closest receiver. He was also in the top-two in terms of DYAR when running curl and out routes in that same season. His performance was electric, even if he didn't have as much success when targeted down the field.

So how does this translate to the Broncos, who have a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field rather than utilizing a quick passing game?

Enter sixth-year veteran receiver Courtland Sutton, who possesses a nearly identical frame and body type as Thomas, as well as a very similar athletic profile in terms of short-area quickness and explosiveness metrics.

Talk about an interesting comparison... pic.twitter.com/Jza5pqUMN6
— Lance Sanderson (@SandersonMHH) February 7, 2023

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While many Broncos fans would balk at the notion of removing a high-quality jump-ball receiver from excelling down the field, the crux of this premise has to do with placing skill-position players in advantageous positions to maximize offensive success.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Sutton averaged 2.7 yards of separation per route run last season and was seen as a highly effective weapon down the stretch as a possession receiver over the middle of the field, specifically on slant and shallow crossing routes. Sutton also saw the majority of his work coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, catching 35 of his 64 total receptions close to the line of scrimmage. The big-bodied possession receiver aspect of his game is easy to see when jumping into the tape.

This doesn’t mean that Sutton doesn’t need to have his chances to stretch the field vertically and use his incredible ability to high-point the football in jump-ball situations, but rather, a more centralized focus of getting him the football as the primary target in the passing game.

A big focus of the Payton offense is getting the ball out quickly to the playmakers early and often to try to lull defenses to sleep and crowd the line of scrimmage. Whether that’s through the running back passing game or a big-bodied possession receiver on the boundary, everything starts there.

After working the quick game mixed with a power running attack, the play-action shotss down the field open up easily, which plays perfectly into Wilson's strengths and the rest of the offensive skill-position players in Denver.

Denver has incredible long speed to work with by utilizing players like Tim Patrick and his long strides, KJ Hamler and his blazing speed, or Jerry Jeudy with his burst and acceleration that sets defenders on their heels.

Placing Sutton in the Thomas role is going to be one of the best ways to not only utilize his skill set to the fullest but also maximize the rest of the offensive playmakers.

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