Breaking Down Browns Schedule, Their Postseason Path
From where the bye week and any Thursday Night games fall, the Cleveland Browns schedule release provides a framework for how the team will approach the season. The most difficult stretches, where they can make up some ground and trying to get an idea of the games the Browns must win if they are going to secure a spot in the postseason this year.
The fourth place finish may not have done the Browns as many favors as it might normally. Two of the teams they play as a result are the New York Jets and Denver Broncos, who not unlike the Browns, believe they can qualify the postseason or go from worst to first.
The First Four
Not only do the Browns start out with three of their first four at home with the lone road game a bus trip to Pittsburgh, three of the games are AFC North rivals. They couldn't ask for more comfort in terms of their preparation since they will sleep in their own beds the entire month.
Deshaun Watson doesn't get to ease his way into the season. The Browns need him to be perform like a quarterback worth $230 million dollars and half a dozen draft picks. If not, they risk getting into an early hole and playing catch up.
All of these teams can play a physical brand of football. Even if the Cincinnati Bengals want to throw the ball all over the field on offense, their defensive front is enormous and can dominate the line of scrimmage. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens all have size on defense and want to be able to run the ball on offense.
Here's how the Browns schedule breaks down.
Early Bye Week
The sheer physicality of the first four games might make the early bye week a nice respite before they get into the rest of their schedule. A couple days of rest and the ability to recharge could give them a nice boost in the second month of the season. They then have to host another team that thrives on being physical on both sides of the ball in the San Francisco 49ers.
Ideally, the Browns make the most of the first month of the season and they are building on what's working during the bye.
However, if they do get off to a poor start, going 1-3, the Browns can spend that time diagnosing what's wrong and fixing it to make a turn around in that second month of the season.
The Middle Six Games
Between the first month and these six games, the Browns are either going to be forged into a playoff team or they are going to wilt. Half of their first ten games are within the division, which is going to define who they are.
They open this stretch with the 49ers at home followed by the Indianapolis Colts on the road are two more teams that want to physically dominate the opponent; all the more reason that bye week could be important.
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a playoff year and that West Coast trip often proves taxing, especially for the Browns. It's a test not only of their fortitude to get through the most physical part of their schedule, but be able to maintain focus and play well on the road.
The game against the Arizona Cardinals should be a game the Browns should win, but they can't lose their intensity knowing they have the Ravens and Steelers the next two weeks.
The Final Seven Games
If the Browns get through the first ten games in decent shape, this is the part of a schedule where they have an opportunity to make a run. If they struggle in the first ten games, they are potentially dragging and this part of the season could be full of traps that yield disappointing results.
It's easy to dismiss the Denver Broncos given what happened last season, but the hire of Sean Payton and a major change in their offensive philosophy could protect Russell Wilson if he's compromised. If he's better after reportedly playing last year hurt, they could be a dynamic offense that's a difficult matchup on the road.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking to repeat as AFC South champions with Trevor Lawrence perhaps poised to establish himself as an upper echelon quarterback. If Watson returns to form and Lawrence is playing at a high level, that could be a marquee matchup.
Finishing up with the New York Jets on a Thursday night game, then getting a mini-bye before the Browns have their rematch with the Cincinnati Bengals could be a blessing. It allows them a few extra days to prepare for the Bengals, but if they are poised to make the postseason, that rest could valuable in providing a boost for the playoffs.
Games Fall into Three Categories
Divisional Games
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns need to win at least half of their divisional games to be in good shape. Going 2-4 against this group would increase the pressure for them to pick up victories elsewhere.
Seemingly Inferior Opponents
Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans
These six games represent opportunities for the Browns to pile up wins. Some of these teams are either bottoming out or have just hit bottom and are trying to rebuild. That said, there is always the 'any given Sunday' element at play here. Even good teams will dump a game they shouldn't. The Kansas City Chiefs didn't take the Houston Texans seriously last year and needed overtime to beat them. The Texans won three games that season while the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl.
If the Browns were to sweep this group, they would only need to find four more victories on the schedule to virtually guarantee they qualify for the postseason.
That's probably not realistic, but the Browns may need five wins from this group. If they split the division and win four of these games, they're going to need to at least three wins from the remaining opponents they have. It's not unreasonable, but it won't be easy either.
Opportunities to Build Reputation
San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets
These are opponents where wins draw notice. Not just from fans and commentators, but from other teams. Teams aren't going to be sleeping on the Browns, so it will be difficult to simply disregard these wins as simply being random.
Beating great quarterbacks is important. The Browns aren't going to somehow sneak their way to the Super Bowl without facing at least one of them. Trevor Lawrence is on the cusp and Aaron Rodgers is certainly capable of making the Jets an instant contender.
The 49ers were in the NFC Championship last year and have reason to believe they can get back there while the Seahawks have good reason to believe they will be better than they were last year.
Unless the Browns overperform in the other categories, they likely need to win two of these matchups. The better they perform against these teams might be indicative of how threatening they can be in the event they make the postseason.
The Game the Browns Want to Win Most
The Browns want to win every game. They want to win every division game in particular. Whether players or coaches were a part of the team last year or not, everyone in that building knows how embarrassing it was to lose to the Jets in the fashion they did. They desperately want to avenge that loss.
Add in the fact it's a nationally televised game, Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback and there will almost certainly have playoff implications attached, it only ramps up the tension.
