No, the Browns Shouldn't Trade Nick Chubb; it's Important to Understand Why
With the Cleveland Browns preparing for a 2023 season, a year in which they expect to contend, some onlookers are seeking ways for the team to save money, potentially recoup draft assets given up to acquire quarterback Deshaun Watson and maximize the roster. One such idea is to trade running back Nick Chubb because of his cap figure, value and changes that will occur on offense, but that would actually hurt the Browns far more than it helps, something the divisional round of the NFL postseason helped to illustrate.
Chubb is scheduled to be paid $14.85 million in 2023. He is currently scheduled to have the fifth highest cap figure among running backs. Those in favor of moving Chubb would argue that's simply too much money to pay that position. Such a move would almost require the Browns to wait until after June 1st to make a move as the dead cap would drop to a hair under $4 million in 2023. They'd still owe the rest in 2024.
But even if there wasn't dead money involved is the discussion, Chubb's salary is worth it as long as he continues to produce the way he has. This past season, Chubb produced 1,764 yards and 13 touchdowns on on 329 touches. Chubb didn't look great at parts of the end of the season as he dealt with a foot issue. However, he didn't miss time or even reps and many of the struggles could be attributed to a lag in the performance of the offensive line and issues the team faced in transitioning to Watson at quarterback.
Part of the reason that some will look to trade Chubb are preparing for a sea change within the Browns offense shifting more towards Watson and the passing game, suggesting it will reduce the importance of Chubb within the offense, making him more expendable, almost a waste of his talent. It would be helpful if Chubb was a better route runner and more consistent pass catcher. Nevertheless, he still is able to contribute in the passing game even if he's never going to be Marshall Faulk or even Kareem Hunt in that capacity. And his opportunities to contribute in that capacity should increase.
Far too many view the distribution of run versus pass as a spectrum that doesn't account for offensive success. In 2022, the Browns ran the ball 47.67 percent of the time. That was the ninth highest rate in the league.
With Deshaun Watson at quarterback in 2020, the Houston Texans ran the ball just 36.6 percent of the time, the third lowest rate that season. While the Texans had a potent passing attack, their running game was borderline useless. Watson was the second leading rusher with 444 yards behind David Johnson, who ran for just 691 yards.
The Browns should lean into Watson and the passing game even if it's not as dramatically as the Texans did. That's why the Browns acquired him, but that doesn't make Chubb less valuable or impactful in the offense. If Watson becomes the quarterback the Browns envisioned when they acquired him, Chubb becomes more effective and the offense more dangerous.
Rather than focusing on how often the Browns run the ball versus pass, the focus should how they run the most effective offense. More offense grows the pie the offense is cutting up between pass and run. Instead of a medium pizza, cut up a large or extra large one. The portions might be smaller but Chubb wouldn't be eating any less.
Ideally, a better offense would enable Chubb to get the same amount of production in fewer touches. If the Browns are forcing teams to live in two-high looks in order to counter Watson's passing ability, it should create more running lanes for Chubb. Further, if the Browns are more effective and create leads, he should be able to run against tired defenses in more of a closer role. That was often the way he took over games during the 2020 season.
The Browns averaged just 5.3 yards per play this season offensively. That's down from 5.5 in 2021 and 5.8 in 2020. The Browns ran 1,119 offensive plays in 2022. Had they ran that same number of plays, but averaged 5.8 yards per play, the offense would have produced an additional 560 yards. The better they are, the more production that's out there for them. Being able to run more offensive plays while maintaining a high average per play would also mean more production.
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals showcased why having a player like Chubb will be so valuable if the offense can deliver on its immense potential. The Bills entire offense depends on quarterback Josh Allen. He has to do everything for their offense to succeed. Allen led the team with 26 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow was great for the Bengals, but part of that was because they forced the Bills defense to account for a running game that wasn't the quarterback. Joe Mixon led the team with 105 rushing yards and the team totaled 172 yards on the ground.
The Bengals kept the Bills off balance and forced them to defend everything. Mixon is a talented running back, but it's not going out on a limb to say Chubb is better. If the Browns find themselves in the postseason and are forcing opponents to defend a multitude of threats, it can allow Chubb to take over the game.
Even if he doesn't as was the case the last time the Browns were in the postseason, Chubb forced the opponent to put so much attention on stopping him, it opened up opportunities in the passing game. If Watson can reach the level or he showcased with the Texans or even surpass it, Chubb should insure that the opponent is never able to shut down the offense. The $14.85 million price tag should look far more reasonable through that lens.
But even if none of that is convincing enough and some team decides to offer a first round pick or a package similar to the one the San Francisco 49ers gave up to acquire Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers, there is one major problem.
The Browns don't have anyone to replace Chubb. The team would then put themselves in a position where they have to find someone to fill that major void. It's not as if the team has someone like Tony Pollard waiting to take over the position. The Browns would then be in a position where they have to fill another need.
The Browns might have a better offensive line than the Texans did with Watson, but they would be in the exact same position the Texans were with Watson. Searching for a running threat they don't have. It's easy to dismiss the importance of having an effective running back until your team doesn't have one. That is something the Browns will not do to themselves. They won't create holes to fill unnecessarily, especially with how important the 2023 season is.
The best outcome for Nick Chubb, just like everyone else, is for the Cleveland Browns offense to grow and improve regardless of how they get there. Leaning into Deshaun Watson only hurts Chubb if the resulting offense is less effective. Besides, less Chubb during the regular season could lead to more Chubb in the postseason when they would need him the most.
