Small Changes Could Make Big Difference for Nick Chubb in 2023
Evolving the Cleveland Browns offense around Deshaun Watson was never going to reduce the impact of Nick Chubb. It would, however, make slight changes and the Browns already provided a preview of how that should look in 2023. With the goal of maximizing him, it could result in the best year of Chubb's career.
The Browns have been searching for a franchise quarterback for decades. They had a brief look at how much that benefit the offense when Baker Mayfield played at an incredibly high level in 2020, but with Watson, the Browns are doing everything they can to put him in position to allow him to reach the level he showed capable with the Houston Texans. Chubb's best season, at least in terms of efficiency, was also the 2020 season, which shouldn't come as a surprise. A better offense overall is going to benefit Chubb.
When the Browns began to evolve the offense around Watson, that meant they would be passing more even if some of those passes would amount to Watson scrambling to pick up yardage.. Some falsely assumed that would mean less Chubb despite the fact the Browns provided an excellent blueprint for how their outstanding tailback could impact the game.
In the season finale against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chubb carried the ball 12 times for 77 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Naturally, one would look at this number in a vacuum and argue Chubb didn't get the ball enough, but he also had five receptions for 45 yards on six targets. On the whole, that equates to 17 touches for 122 yards and a touchdown in the contest. That works out to 7.1 yards per touch, an ideal situation on an average Sunday.
Should Chubb get a few more touches? Perhaps. Nevertheless, if Watson is playing at a high level and Chubb is getting 120 total yards, the Browns are in great shape. The key is touches. And while 17 touches may seem low, it's only slightly below his average over the course of his career.
The goal for Chubb now becomes finding the right balance between opportunities and efficiency. The more Chubb gets the ball, the less effective he is if only slightly. That is then weighed against wear and tear over the course of the season, since the Browns expect to be in the postseason. There are going to be games where they need to keep feeding Chubb the ball to win, but they want to be cautious with his overall workload to reduce the risk of injury and keep him fresh for a postseason run.
It's also an argument for getting a strong second option, but let's simply focus on Chubb for now.
Over the past four seasons, Chubb averages 17.2 carries and 1.6 receptions per game, meaning he's just under 19 touches per game. It's a matter of adjusting the balance of runs and receptions.
Some of Chubb's lack of usage as a receiver can be attributed to the fact the Browns had Kareem Hunt catch passes the past few seasons. Hunt averaged 2.7 receptions per game in his time with the Browns.
Between Chubb and Hunt, that works out to 4.3 receptions per game. If Chubb were to get all 4.3 receptions, that would mean he'd only need 14.7 carries per game to get to 19 touches per game. The Browns would probably like that number to be slightly higher in this offense and will likely split them between Chubb and someone else, possibly second-year back Jerome Ford.
The Browns will likely expand the route tree Chubb runs, but they are also counting on the offense to naturally create spacing for him on check downs and screens. However, he also stands to benefit on plays that break down and get extended by Watson. That is precisely the scenario which resulted in a Chubb touchdown reception against the Steelers.
If teams are trying to defend Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore running routes while also trying to contain the threat of Deshaun Watson's legs, they may not be able to be as focused on stopping Chubb as a pass catcher. After all, the moment he's secured the ball, Chubb immediately becomes one of the best pure runners in the league, able to make opponents miss or create yards after contact. The only difference is he has fewer defenders in front of him. If the defense does focus on Chubb, they may leave someone else open or allow Watson to pick up a first down.
Going back to 2020, Chubb had his most efficient year as a receiver, averaging 8.3 yards per reception. His averages in 2021 and 2022 were 7 and 6.5 respectively, so it stands to reason the better Watson and the rest of the offense performs, the better Chubb's efficiency as a receiver.
The Browns don't need to do much to facilitate Chubb as a receiver. It just comes down to opportunities, though they've done things like splitting out wide to get a favorable matchup or utilizing motion to get him some space. Meanwhile, the Browns hope the structure of the offense creates more favorable conditions for him as a runner.
If the Browns are able to force teams to spread defenses out and force them to cover deeper, there will be fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage and in the box. Additionally, those defenders could end up being lighter if they are focused on getting players with more range and coverage ability. Chubb has the capacity to overpower those smaller defenders or utilize his speed to run through light boxes.
If Watson is able to perform at a reasonably high level, Chubb could surpass the 5.6 yards per carry he had in 2020, hitting a career high. The Browns want to create a situation where defenses have to pick their poison. Either have personnel in the box to stop the run, which could allow the Browns to thrive through the air or spread out with lighter personnel to defend the pass and risk being gutted by the run.
Based on recent history, defenses tend to prioritize stopping the pass. The hope is that even if they give up first downs on the ground, they can muster up a series that gets a stop. Ideally, it's forcing a punt but even a field goal attempt is often considered a win, especially in the red zone when the defense has less ground to cover. With a talent like Chubb, that strategy could easily backfire as he eats up swathes of yardage with the space afforded him by the defense.
It's not going to require the Cleveland Browns to make a dramatic shift with their usage of Nick Chubb to produce a different threat on offense; not even three receptions replacing three carries per game. As with so much on this team, Deshaun Watson's performance is a critical element, but it could result in better efficiency and a career year for Chubb all while potentially lightning his workload overall.
