Ron Wolf Decries Analytics in Player Evaluation In Wake of Son's Departure, Why He's Wrong

Ron Wolf is a legendary general manager, richly deserving of his place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He was the architect of the plan that transformed the Green Bay Packers from what was NFL Siberia at that time to a Super Bowl champion and a franchise that has enjoyed consistent success long after his departure. And it's easy to sympathize with wanting to lash out at the Cleveland Browns, given they just agreed to part ways with someone close to him; namely, his son, Eliot. With all of that in mind, Ron Wolf is also dead wrong with his criticism of analytics, suggesting that the use of them in player evaluation makes it difficult to properly place blame when things go wrong.

Hall of Fame GM Ron Wolf said the @Browns and others who embrace an analytics-driven model are "out of control."
Wolf: "When something goes wrong, who takes responsibility?
"Their answer: `Well, that's what the data told us.' What a crock. That's what got 'em 1-31."
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) January 29, 2020

Wolf is 81 years old. His hay day was in the 1990s. Reggie White signed with the Packers, the biggest free agent signing in NFL history on April 3rd, 1993. I hesitate to mention this as it makes me cringe to think, but that was... almost 27 years ago. Wolf was in his mid 50s at the time.

So it shouldn't be a surprise that what he and others were doing during the 90s has since evolved just as it did from the 1960s. Wolf describes using analytical data in player evaluation, like so many others, as if it's plugging information into a computer and waiting for a printout to tell a team who to draft.

That's not how it works. It's information. The people running an NFL team still have to decide how to use it. It's more precise identifying what went wrong now, incorporating data than going off of scouting techniques used three decades ago, which often included going with someone's gut.

Think about cars from the 90s compared to cars now. This is not my first time using cars as a way to explain analytics, which is ironic given how little I know about them. For the most part, my knowledge of cars largely amounts to turning the key and magic happens, allowing it to go. When I go to a mechanic and they explain what's wrong with the car, they could and potentially have invented parts on the fly that need replaced and I have paid them to do just that.

Nevertheless, here we are and they help explain the point. When people are going into a mechanic to have their car serviced, they have often been reduced to describing various noises the car in hopes that gives them some indication what's wrong with it.

Now, a car coming off the assembly line has at least one if not multiple computers spitting out data or... analytics to whoever is interested, including the owner as well as a mechanic. Instead of simply getting things like miles per hour, revolutions per minute and estimates on things like how much oil is in the car, the computers in cars now constantly provide live updates on how much pressure is in each of their tires, how much mileage they are getting per gallon, a GPS and access to help at the push of a button. And if something is wrong with the car, the computer is likely to tell the driver in almost any number of languages.

When Wolf was in his prime, scouting was largely based on how things looked and their gut reaction. There was some data, but not nearly as much and it wasn't as clear how to use it. Now, franchises are worth billions of dollars and everyone is trying to get as much information as they can to help them get an edge, no matter the financial cost. If anything, easier now to figure out where problems are if a player goes wrong; from their collegiate production to athletic traits, age and there are probably actuaries figuring out algorithms to determine injury risk.

So rather than coming to the conclusion a guy just didn't have it, now they can run their data against thousands of profiles to try to figure out what didn't work. And ultimately, no matter how much data they have, someone still has to make a decision, just like when Wolf was running the Packers. And those decisions either work or they don't. Analytics and their use aren't there to ensure success. They are in place to help minimize the risk of failure, because there are no guarantees.

Undoubtedly, someone thought Paul Brown was out of his mind when he came up with the idea for the 40-yard dash and timed it. Now, the NFL is putting that particular drill on in prime time. That is what data has become. Wolf's place in NFL history is secure, deservedly, but the notion of sticking with the way he's always done it is the right way to do it, is why people such as John Dorsey are now obsolete. The NFL in the 2020s is a data driven league. Teams either adapt or die.