What's Trent Williams Worth To The Browns?

Any discussion about the Cleveland Browns potentially acquiring Trent Williams to play left tackle comes down to a discussion of value. The Washington Redskins are allowing Williams to seek out a trade and with Bruce Allen no longer an employee of the team, that might be more plausible than it was last year. Once again, the Cleveland Browns are a focus as a possible destination for a few good reasons. They need tackle help. Williams is ideal for the offense they want to run and an added bonus is that Bill Callahan, who was his most recent offensive line coach, is now working for the Browns.

Last year, Williams sat out most of the season, unwilling to play for the team over the mishandling of a delicate medical situation involving cancer. When the team announced the hiring of Ron Rivera as the team's head coach, there was a thawing of tensions between the team and Williams, who reconsidered his position. He decided he would be willing to play for the team, so long as he got a new contract. That's how they've gotten to this point of exploring trades, potentially in a more forthright manner.

All of the talk of a trade with the Redskins thus far has been in terms of draft picks. The Browns have seven of them with an extra third round pick, but no fifth round pick. But what does each pick actually mean in terms of value. Some of this discussion gets lost in immediately bringing up picks that were complete disasters as a way to suggest the Browns should be willing to give up a pick for Williams as if that's how a team operates.

A first round pick is a four to five year player and usually one a team looks to make a second contract. The Browns owning the 10th pick in the draft, that's a massive opportunity to land a cornerstone piece, since two contracts would last around eight or nine years. The Browns obviously aren't going to give up the 10th pick for Williams when they could take an offensive tackle that could be around for two contracts and play at an incredibly high level.

A second round pick is for a four year player with a hope the team can extend him, but not getting a second contract doesn't necessarily mean it would be a disappointing selection. For example, the Browns used the 35th pick on Nick Chubb in 2018 and he was the MVP of the team last season. He's got two years left on his deal and it wouldn't be a surprise if the team didn't retain him after that as so many teams simply don't sign running backs to second contracts. That wouldn't make Chubb a disappointing pick. He's great.

Trent Williams is 31 years old, turns 32 years old in July. He didn't play last year as he sat out, but he played at a high level in 2018. The problem is he hasn't gotten through a full season healthy since 2013. He missed three games in 2018, six in 2017 and four in 2016. When he's on the field, he's fantastic but he misses time. And obviously, the question for Williams going forward is how long can he continue to be great. He was a truly freaky athlete coming out of college and he could last because of it, but that's a major part of any decision involving a trade.

If the Browns determine they can get four great years out of Williams, they could see that as a worthwhile use of a second round pick, effectively treating him like a second round running back. If not, it would probably be less.

A third round pick, it's hoping to get a one contract contributor and then determining if there's value beyond that. Trading for a proven commodity that can impact immediately can reduce the timeline they need to make it worthwhile. For example, if they felt like Williams was going to be great for two years and weren't sure about anything longer than that, they might be inclined to look in this range.

They could sweeten the deal by including another lower pick or a future pick to make it work. It all comes down to what the Browns believe Williams will provide. Everything beyond that comes down to negotiating.

If the Browns were in a position to contend, perhaps they would be willing to go up to a second round pick, but with the amount of uncertainty the team has on offense and the number of holes on defense, that's a difficult bet to make.

The other thing to consider in this is need, desperation. The Browns have the 10th pick in the draft. They can get an excellent tackle prospect with that pick. They aren't in a position where they might not have an avenue to acquire one as opposed to teams that pick later and have the same type of hole. Those teams might feel the stress and be willing to give up more because they are more desperate. And that could be why another team beats the Browns out for a trade to acquire Williams.

Williams isn't a luxury by any stretch. He's a great player and would be a welcome addition to the Browns. He's just not something the team has to have. None of this addresses any potential contract considerations. Since the agent is essentially running the search for a trade, they would seemingly negotiate a contract beforehand or get some kind of assurances of that. Williams, currently scheduled to this coming $12.5 million next season, which is a pretty good value. A new contract might be worth it from a talent standpoint, but prove more difficult under the salary cap. The pending collective bargaining agreement could ease that burden.

Browns general manager Andrew Berry has mentioned being aggressive in player acquisition. Player for player trades aren't as rare as they have been, but it's still more common for teams to deal in terms of draft capital. If the Browns make trades for players, whether it's Trent Williams or anyone else, it will be interesting to compare it against this framework in terms of value.