Making Sense of J.J. Watt's Potential Fit With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
J.J. Watt wants to join a contender as his Hall of Fame career inches closer to an end. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fresh off of a Super Bowl victory, have a bevy of defensive linemen and edge rushers set to become free agents next month.
Sounds like a match made in heaven, right? It isn't all that unrealistic, either.
Following the defensive end's release from the Houston Texans last week, the Buccaneers were tabbed as the second-most likely team to sign Watt as a free agent this season. With manageable but limited salary cap space available - $20.7 million as of this story - Tampa Bay is in a position where it can move enough money around via restructures and cap casualty releases to send Watt an offer.
Watt was due to make $17.5 million in 2021 should he have remained under contract with the Texans. About to turn 32 years old and coming off of his second fully healthy season in the past five years, Watt doesn't have the leverage to command anything substantial, even though he did post five sacks and 14 tackles for loss this past season.
It isn't clear what Watt will demand on the free agent market quite yet, although Peter King of NBC Sports believes Watt will search for a two-year deal that pays him "his going rate."
For reference, Baltimore defensive end Calais Campbell signed a two-year contract worth $12.5 million per year with the Ravens last offseason at the age of 33, after being traded by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The comparison isn't direct, but this Campbell's contract could serve as a barometer for what Watt is looking for.
Tampa Bay could go about signing Watt in two ways: To replace defensive end/tackle Ndamukong Suh, a looming free agent, or to upgrade from pure defensive end William Gholston, ideally with Suh signing a new contract as well.
Something worth keeping in mind: Defensive linemen Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Steve McLendon, and Jeremiah Ledbetter will become free agents next month as well. One way or another, the unit needs addressing.
Suh has emerged as one of Tampa Bay's most consistent playmakers up front over the past two seasons, and piled up 62 quarterback pressures in 20 games this past season per Pro Football Focus. Suh's inside-and-out positional flexibility could give him an edge over Gholston, a long-tenured member of Tampa Bay's defense with a decent-sized cap hit ($5.5 million in 2021) despite average production (five sacks in the past three years).
Suh made $8 million on a one year deal in 2020, a season removed from a one-year, $9.25 million deal. The 34-year-old could take another pay cut to stick around for one more year, perhaps a more significant one in order to get Watt into the fold on the opposite end of the line.
Pair Suh's potential pay cut with Gholston off the roster as a cap casualty alone - call this a projection of about $7.5 million in cap savings - and Watt's "going rate" should become much more feasible. Add in other cuts and contract restructures - wide receiver Mike Evans has reportedly already offered the latter - and the move could even become an easy one.
Should this all come to fruition, suddenly, Tampa Bay's front-three entering its "going for two" season would feature Suh, Watt, and Vita Vea, each a former first-round pick that has proven their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage time and time again.
Watt's acquisition could soften the blow of edge rusher Shaq Barrett's potential free agent departure, and should Barrett return, it would be hard to argue that the Buccaneers would own the most talented defensive front in the league. With Barrett opposite of Jason Pierre-Paul, benefitting from the interior matchups and the ability to dial-up unique blitz combinations, the Bucs' front five rushers could be unstoppable should Watt ink a deal with Tampa Bay.
With Barrett, Suh, linebacker Lavonte David, wide receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, tight end Rob Gronkowski, and numerous other contracts set to expire in a month, Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht will have his hands full as is moving money around to preserve a talented team.
However, Watt's allure is nearly irresistable from Tampa Bay's triumphus point-of-view. It would be silly to not at least put together a pitch for his services.
