Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears: Three Matchups to Watch
Photo credit: John A. Babiak/@Photog_JohnB
Tampa Bay is coming off its fifth win of the season and looks to get revenge against a Chicago Bears team that bested them just a little over a year ago in the Windy City.
Which matchups will be most crucial in determining the outcome of this game? Let's dive in and find out.
3. The Bucs run defense vs. the Bears running game
The Eagles were able to have success against the Bucs on the ground last week, even if the majority of the damage came late in the game. There's certainly nothing to worry about right now as it pertains to the Bucs run defense, but it will be interesting to see how the unit responds against a strong Bears rushing attack this week.
Per Football Outsiders, the Bears have the ninth-best rushing attack in terms of overall DVOA and the 11th-highest adjusted line yards per carry. In terms of raw stats, the Bears average the seventh-most yards per game on the ground while gaining 4.4 yards per carry.
Well, that seems reasonable with Fields behind center, right? Sure, but at the same time, the Bears running backs have been very efficient, themselves. Sports Info Solutions has them as the seventh-most efficient position grouping in the NFL and they're just one of seven teams to have a positive EPA/attempt in this regard. The Bears running backs have also sustained their strong play without David Montgomery over the last two weeks, evidenced by their ninth-best mark of 0.03 EPA/att and average of 118 rushing yards per game.
The group's strength is its ability break tackles and gain extra yards after the fact. The Bears are third with 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, they have the fourth-most yards after contact (423), and the sixth-most broken tackles (12) so far this year.
The good news is the Bucs run defense has just six missed tackles on the year. Either way, the Bucs run defense needs to rebound and they know that.
"I don’t need to remind them," Todd Bowles said when asked about the run defense giving up 100 yards on the ground against the Eagles. "The film speaks for itself. We just try to get better every week and work on the little things. Even though it happened late in the game, we can’t let that happen – from a coaching [standpoint], as far as calling the game, and as far as them making plays playing the game. We work at it every week."
2. Allen Robinson vs. the Bucs secondary
Don't let Robinson's 2021 stat line fool you. He's still one of the league's best receivers despite his lack of production. I mean, the dude was able to notch back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons in the past two years despite having Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles as his quarterbacks and Matt Nagy as his head coach. That in itself deserves high praise.
If there were ever a time for Robinson to have a big game in 2021, this would be it. The Bucs secondary is notoriously banged up and has struggled for the majority of the year. And since Carlton Davis III is on injured reserve, the Bucs won't shadow Robinson, which means he'll be exposed to the likes of Jamel Dean, Pierre Desir, Dee Delaney, and whomever else may be lined up on him throughout the night.
Therefore, it'll take a collective effort from the Bucs secondary to slow Robinson down. The eighth-year receiver had 10 receptions for 90 yards on 16 targets in last year's meeting, so there's certainly room for success, here. Those numbers were also complied against the Bucs' starters at the time, not the third- and fourth-stringers we will see on the field this Sunday.
We know the Bears are going to throw the ball - that's been the MO for literally every team the Bucs have faced this year. The Bucs have to make sure they have an answer for Robinson whenever he is on the other end of Fields' pass attempt(s) this week.
1. The Bears pass rush vs. the Bucs offensive line
This is easily the biggest matchup of the game. The Bears defense is carried by the pass rush, which is tied for the lead league with 21 sacks and easily leads the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 10.1%. The next highest team, Minnesota, has an 8.9% adjusted sack rate.
A lot of this has to do with the re-emergence of EDGE Robert Quinn, who has 5.5 sacks on the year. He and Khalil Mack have formed one of the league's best pass-rushing duos over the first six weeks of the season. Chicago is the only team in the NFL to have two players ranked in the top-10 when it comes to sack totals.
It doesn't end with those two, either. Akiem Hicks is still one of the better interior pass rushers in the NFL and Bilal Nichols/Eddie Goldman can get the job done at times, too. Don't forget about Roquan Smith coming from the second level of the defense, either.
The Bucs offensive lines know all about this defensive line. Mack and Co. made life hell for the offensive line last year in Chicago, so they know what they're up against this year. Will the front five make amends this time around? It will go a long, long way in helping the Bucs win if they do.
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