Familiar Formula: How Cowboys Will Blow Out Packers Sunday in NFC Playoff Game
WHITT'S END 1.12.24:
Whether you’re at the end of your coffee, your day, your week or even your rope, welcome to Whitt’s End …
*Dallas Cowboys 48, Green Bay Packers 17. There, I said it. Wasn’t so difficult now, was it?
But for NFL “expert analysts” this time of year, directly and definitively picking a winner of a playoff game is apparently a bridge too far. Instead, turn on ESPN or FS1 or even NFL Network and hear only hollow, spineless teases:
“These young Packers are talented … they can make some noise in the playoffs.”
“Green Bay is a bad matchup for Dallas. The Packers are going to be a problem.”
“I’ve got the Cowboys on upset alert. Be careful, Dallas!”
Make some noise? Be a problem? Upset alert?
What in the name of Jimmy the Greek is going on here? Spare me the milquetoast, soft-shoe tap dancing and give us a dang prediction. ESPN’s Jeff Saturday played 13 years in the NFL. Won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning for the Indianapolis Colts. Even served as an interim head coach for eight games last season.
Surely he’ll have a firm, fact-based opinion on Sunday’s Cowboys-Packers game? Nope.
“Are the Cowboys on upset alert?” he said this week, further softening a pillowy, nonsensical question by repeating it, “I don’t think so. Not necessarily.”
On the internet, everybody’s a loud-mouth expert. But on TV, everyone’s a tight-lipped ’fraidy cat. I guess if you never actually make a prediction, you’ll never actually be wrong?
Balderdash! Here’s how it’s done: The Cowboys will smoke the Packers. Why?
We can squint and manipulate and attempt to hype this matchup as intriguing – Mike McCarthy vs. his former team! – but the bottom line is that the Cowboys are more talented, more experienced and playing at home. They will blow out the mediocre and middling Packers, similarly to how they dismissed six of eight opponents this season at AT&T Stadium.
The Cowboys have won 16 in a row in Arlington, haven’t lost there since September of 2022 and this season destroyed six teams by 20+ points. At home, they average 37 points. Green Bay scored 37 points once this season, way back in Week 1.
Nine of Dallas’ 12 wins were by 20+ points. The other four teams to have that many blowouts in a season all went to the Super Bowl.
This will be Dak Prescott’s seventh playoff game; Jordan Love’s first. The Packers are the youngest, least experienced team in the playoffs since 1974.
Green Bay finished 9-8. In December it lost to the New York Giants, whom the Cowboys shredded twice by a combined 89-17.
And the Packers’ defense? Abysmal. On Christmas Eve they surrendered 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, better known as the NFL’s worst offense. In TD-INT ratio, passer rating, third-down conversion percentage, rushing yards per game and 20+-yard plays, the Packers rank 25th or lower, worst of any playoff team.
Dak’s in the conversation for MVP. At home, he’s in contention for GOAT.
At AT&T Stadium this season he went 8-0, completing 73 percent of his passes (211 of 288) for 308 yards per game with 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Take your “make some noise” and “be a problem” and “upset alert” and stuff ’em in your soft sack. I’ll offer a real prediction: “blow ... out.”
Cowboys 48, Packers 17.
*Good to know the Dallas Mavericks can still win without Luka Doncic. And nice to remember that Kyrie Irving can still carry the team, like he did in a 44-point performance Thursday night against the New York Knicks.
In general, however, they just seem to go through the motions at home. Mavs needed to go at least 6-1 on this current seven-game homestand against mediocre teams that should’ve served as launching point toward momentum into the new year.
They inexplicably slipped up with a horrible, 17-point loss to the awful Memphis Grizzlies (without Ja Morant), and now need to sweep the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday-Monday to salvage the favorable schedule.
*I’ve had lots of favorite players in my lifetime. But not once did I get an ounce of joy from them getting a raise. The Texas Rangers are being smart with their money, low-balling star Adolis Garcia in arbitration negotiations.
Of the 23 eligible baseball players that didn’t reach an agreement by Thursday’s deadline, the gap between Garcia and the Rangers – $1.9 million – is the largest. Big whoop. This is how business gets done. Rangers offer a low-ball $5 million; Garcia wants around $7 million and he might get a ruling in the middle.
But fans are flooding the negotiations with “Pay the man!” and “I hope Adolis gets his money!” Rooting for individual success? Sure. Hoping for an MVP? Of course. But passionately pulling for a guy that’s already a multimillionaire to get more money? That enthusiasm misses me.
*I think I’d have rather have fleas than fees. Sounds crazy. But, confirmed, give me fleas. Planning a big birthday bash to a Mexico beach this Summer. (I admit, these are first-world problems.) Figured I’d cash in some airline miles for a couple of free tickets. Nope. In order to redeem miles and get my “free” tickets, I have to pay a “redemption fee” of $111.
That sneaky scam is brought to you by the same airline industry that casually stopped serving real food on flights and started charging for your luggage to accompany you on trips. Fleas only itch, temporarily. As for the house rental south of the border, the price is reasonable. Or was, before the fees. For a 3-night stay there are Airbnb “host fees” of $438 and $169 worth of “service fees.” Throw in $234 in taxes and all the sudden I’m paying more for fat than meat. Send in the fleas.
*Hot.
*Not.
Micah Parsons and Jordan Love
*“America’s Team” vs. “Titletown” sounds sexy, and who doesn’t like Tom Landry vs. Vince Lombardi, Troy Aikman vs. Brett Favre and now McCarthy vs. his old team?
The Cowboys are 4-4 in the playoffs against the Packers. Why then, does this matchup inherently scare the bejeezus out of Cowboys fans?
Because every postseason loss to the Pack has been a kick to the crotch, that’s why.
In the 1965 season Don Meredith was intercepted in the end zone in the final minute at the Cotton Bowl as Dallas lost to Green Bay in the NFL Championship, 34-27.
Following year another dramatic, one-score loss, this time in the Ice Bowl. After both losses, the Cowboys watched as the Packers went on to easy blowout wins over inferior AFC fodder in the first two Super Bowls.
The Cowboys then won four straight matchups, twice easily beating the Packers at Texas Stadium on their way to Super Bowls in the 1990s.
But then in the 2014 season came the “Dez Caught It!” controversial loss at Lambeau Field, followed two years later by Aaron Rodgers’ miraculous 3rd-and-20 completion that set up a 51-yard field goal on the final play of a 34-31 victory at AT&T Stadium.
Even the most confident Cowboys fans will watch this one with hands at the ready to cover their eyes.
*Looked up at the night sky this week just to check myself: 1. There are more stars in the universe than grains of sand on Earth. Astronomers actually estimate that our sky contains 70 septillion (7, followed by 23 zeros) stars, so make it 10,000 of them for every grain of sand on all of beaches. 2. We are one planet, orbiting one star. In our galaxy, there are 400 billion stars. In our universe, there are two trillion galaxies. It doesn’t take an astrophysicist to deduct that we are much smaller than even a speck of dust. But wait, here’s the part that really boggles my brain: All those discoveries are based on our “observable universe”, which we think is about five percent of what is actually out there. If the entire universe was a 24-hour day, we can see about 72 minutes. Consider me sufficiently checked.
*Football got younger this week. Hard to envision the result will also be getting better. Nick Saban, 72, retired from Alabama. Pete Carroll, 72, is moving upstairs with the Seattle Seahawks. And Bill Belichick, who turns 72 in April, left the New England Patriots.
Admitted Saban, “My age started becoming a little bit of an issue. People wanted assurances I would be here for the coming years, and it got harder and harder to be honest about it.”
Our football coaches may be growing old in their early 70s, but America is apparently convinced that 80 is the new 50. An octogenarian will likely be elected President this November, and when they finish their potential term in 2028 Joe Biden would be 86 and Donald Trump 82. It’s one thing for my 83-year-old Dad to play golf four times a week, but being the leader of the free world?
*Remember last Summer when the Mavs made their marquee signing of Grant Williams and I was severely skeptical? A starter in November, he’s all but vanished come January. His 3-point shooting has plummeted from 45 percent in the first month of the season to around 25 in the new year. He was playing 32 minutes per game; now about 17. In other words, yes, yes and more yes to the Mavs trading for Toronto Raptors’ subtle star Pascal Siakam.
*Wrong-way driver on I-35 south of Dallas at 1:30 in the morning. Two people killed. One guess what kind of vehicle caused the horrible, head-on collision? Sure enough … White. Truck.
*The Patriots’ search for a suitable replacement for the legendary Belichick made me remember that the same guy replaced Landry in Dallas and Don Shula in Miami: Jimmy Johnson.
*A “sign” of the times: The Houston Astros won a World Series fueled by a sign-stealing ploy that got their manager (A.J. Hinch) fired. Michigan Wolverines won college football’s National Championship in a season in which their coach (Jim Harbaugh) was dealt separate three-game suspensions for recruiting violations and a sign-stealing scheme. Upon leaving the Patriots, Belichick was lauded all day Thursday as the “greatest coach in NFL history” as his fawning admirers conveniently never mentioned that he was fined $500,000 and his team had to forfeit a first-round draft pick for illegally spying on opponents to, yep, steal their signs. Bottom line: Cheaters never win … unless they’re caught after stealing signs.
*Let’s compare Coach A vs. Coach B. A is 60 years old and has a NFL career winning percentage of .619. B is 61 years old with a winning percentage of .620. Over 17 seasons, A has won seven division titles, is 11-10 the playoffs and has won one Super Bowl. Over 16 seasons, B has won five division titles, is 11-9 in the playoffs and has won one Super Bowl. A’s team went 12-5 this season and earned home-field advantage in its first playoff game. B’s team went 13-4 this season and earned home-field advantage in its first playoff game.
Essentially they’re the same coach, right? Almost identical.
Then please explain: Why is Coach A (McCarthy) on a supposed short leash in Dallas while Coach B (John Harbaugh) is safe as a baby with the Baltimore Ravens?
“Because it’s the Cowboys,” Fox analyst Julian Edelman said this week. “It’s definitely just that. The lights shine brighter and the pressure hits harder in Dallas.” Also factors: Harbaugh won his ring with his current team, while McCarthy’s current team is run by the ostensibly volatile Jerry Jones.
*Speculation about McCarthy’s job security with the Cowboys lands at Jerry’s feet. The owner is savvy enough to realize that words matter. But when asked about his coach’s position Jerry didn’t go with “we’re working on a contract extension and he’ll definitely be the coach next season” but instead only “he’s under contract.”
Like the Mavs’ Mark Cuban, Jones doesn’t like his coaches too comfortable, but rather operating as if they are always auditioning to keep their jobs. Dismiss the Belichick-to-the-Cowboys rumors at your own peril. But I’m old enough to remember when Jerry divorced Jimmy after winning consecutive Super Bowls, when he fired Chan Gailey after consecutive playoff seasons, and when he canned Wade Phillips only 10 months removed from a playoff victory and in the middle of a season sabotaged by a Tony Romo injury.
*The Cowboys have played 31 home playoff games, going 21-10. Only one quarterback has beaten them twice on the road in the postseason: the Rams’ Vince Ferragamo.
*You better have a good excuse if you … no, check that. Unless you are deceased, there is no valid reason to have bought a winning $1 million lottery ticket on July 19 and not yet claimed your prize. My guess: The ticket holder (it was purchased in Houston) wanted the $1 billion prize and when all numbers didn’t match simply threw the ticket in the trash. In that case, they are better off not knowing. If unclaimed, the money goes into Texas’ “general fund” Monday.
*Ice Bowl 2.0? Forecast for Sunday afternoon in DFW calls for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of freezing precipitation. You can hate Jerry for a lot of things, but you better thank him for putting a roof over your head. Or, at least at AT&T Stadium. (By the way, during the Miami Dolphins-Chiefs game in Kansas City Saturday night temperatures are predicted to plunge below 0. Not below freezing, below zero!)
*This Weekend? Friday let’s be proactive and do some writing and work on some taxes. Saturday let’s hang out with Big Sisters Big Brother lil’ bro Ja. Sunday let’s visit the folks in JoCoMoFo before Cowboys-Packers. As always, don’t be a stranger.
