Fish column: On Cowboys coach Jason Garrett's play-calling, Fuzzy Math and Occam's Razor

FRISCO - First we must understand, there is a logical explanation for most everything. And further, there is Occam's Razor - which comes in handy as we discuss coach Jason Garrett's close shave of a Week 4 loss at New Orleans.

There are some hard numbers that are ... well, hard. That makes the numbers indisputable but does not render conclusions indisputable.

That is Logical Explanation No. 1 for why, on the day after Sunday's 12-10 loss at New Orleans on Sunday night, Cowboys coach Jason Garrett opted to disagree with media members about simple math.

Cowboys Pass Rate on 1st/2nd Down:

Week 1 vs NYG: 69%
Week 2 @ WAS: 64%
Week 3 vs MIA: 53%
Week 4 @ NO: 50%
— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) September 30, 2019

If the raw numbers are to be believed, Dallas dazzled offensively in Weeks 1 and 2 while also throwing on first and second downs 69 and 64 percent of the time, respectively. In Week 3, that number shrank to 53 percent, but maybe that was an anomaly, given that the victim was the hapless Dolphins.

But in any event, the Cowboys were mass-producing 30-point Sundays, a pleasant change under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who according to his players (to paraphrase a few of them I talked to in Weeks 1, 2 and 3) teaches a philosophy featuring "aggressive and attacking'' play-calling.

Then came New Orleans. The Cowboys managed just 10 points. And the run-pass ratio shriveled even more, down to 50 percent. That's "conservatism,'' right? And there is nothing wrong with "conservatism'' as long as it's a decision made soundly, right?

Garrett, in his regular Monday visit on 105.3 The Fan, was asked by my guys "Shan & RJ'' if a run-first plan was something Dallas "put more at the forefront.''

"I don’t know that it was put more on the forefront,'' Garrett responded. "We obviously want to run the football and we want to attack through the air. And that was the plan going in was to try and do both. That’s always really our approach, attack both ways. We try to do that throughout the game. We had some success at different times doing each, it wasn’t consistent enough throughout.''

That's debatable, of course -- especially the argument that the run game demonstrated some level of "success.'' Ezekiel Elliott totaled 35 yards on 1.8 yards per carry.

So why would Jason say such a thing? Occam's Razor. The most obvious answer is the most likely one. So, either ...

a) RedBall is too stubborn to concede a strategic error

b) RedBall knows the numbers and knows the truth but sees no value in revealing in-house thoughts on live radio.

The guys on The Fan pushed again. They alluded to the aforementioned percentages.

"You mean,'' Garrett retorted, "we ran it more on first and second down?''

Yes, Coach. You did.

"I don’t know that I fully agree with that. We try to be balanced throughout. You want to attack different ways. You certainly don’t want to be a team that just throws the ball every first down. You don’t want to be a team that runs the ball every first down. I thought we did a good job mixing it.''

And here is where Occam's Razor becomes "Fuzzy Math.''

*Dallas absolutely did not "do a good job mixing it up.'' As proof, I offer you: "10 points.'' You have not done "a good job'' at anything when you score 10 points.

*Critics are not asking Garrett and Moore to "just throw on every first down'' or "just run on every first down.'' Garrett has created a Straw Man here; I would like to use Occam's Razor to sever the Straw Man's head from his body.

Why does Garrett shift into Straw Man Mode here? Either ...

a) RedBall is too stubborn to concede a strategic error

b) RedBall knows the numbers and knows the truth but sees no value in revealing in-house thoughts on live radio.

*"I don’t know that I fully agree with that''? Jason, you cannot disagree with the raw numbers that say your first- and second-down pass-attempt percentages are shrinking. You can disagree with the "why'' or you can disagree with how the raw numbers ignore "situational football'' (which they do; If I face second-and-goal from the 1 a lot, and I run on that down a lot, and I make it into the end zone a lot, situationally, I could be excused for leaning toward "conservatism.''

But "I don't know that I fully agree with that'' is a losing debate point, and a damaging one, because now Jason has errantly created the illusion that he is less aware of his team's month-long offensive tendencies than "Shan & RJ'' are.

And y'all, I love "Shan & RJ,'' but them possessing football knowledge that isn't possessed by the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys would not be a good thing.

For Garrett's sake, I wish he'd have simply said, "I, as the head coach, oversaw the designing of a game plan that we thought would work. This time, we were wrong. We'll be working our asses off this week to get it right.''

That appoach -- not just that canned answer but that real approach -- is the answer. And I'm willing to bet that's exactly what Jason Garrett and staff are doing right this minute, as you read this, after having put their Straw Men and their Fuzzy Math books and their Occam's Razors back on some dusty shelf, where they belong.