NFL Draft Review: Does Ezekiel Elliott for 2020 NFL MVP Justify High Pick?

What Are The Odds? Ezekiel Elliott for 2020 NFL MVP Is A Great Dallas Cowboys Idea. But There Is a Problem - And It Has Nothing To Do With Him Having Been Drafted No. 4 Overall

FRISCO - It's not about talent.

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has loads of talent, and in his offense has been surrounded by the same.

It's not about production.

Elliott has in his four NFL seasons more than 5,000 yards rushing and 48 total touchdowns.

It's not even about "hype.''

Zeke is a perennial Pro Bowler and a star-caliber player performing for the NFL's most high-profile franchise.

No, when it comes to the NFL's MVP race in 2020 - and, too, when it comes to the justification of selecting a running back high in an NFL Draft - it's about ... 

Quarterbacks.

As my Sports Illustrated colleague Corey Parson writes:

"Sportsbooks have already released their odds for the NFL 2020 MVP and Elliott is listed at 50 to 1 at Williams Hill. In the last 15 seasons, only three running backs have won the MVP award, Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander. Those guys all put up historic numbers in their MVP seasons. Elliott is the type of player who can put up a historic season, but I don't think he can win the MVP, so that ticket cashing is a long shot.''

My argument against Elliott isn't just about history; it's also about his teammates. In "a QB League,'' which is what the NFL is (in terms of everything from league and team branding to rules changes), any good team (10 wins plus, let's say) is going to have voters searching its roster for honors candidates.

In Dallas? If Zeke is winning 10 games, so is (obviously) QB Dak Prescott. And if Zeke is putting up the numbers to get those 10 wins (which he surely would be), so will Dak be putting up those numbers.

And in a best-case scenario for Elliott, he'd split Cowboys-centric votes with his own pal Dak.

Same thing with the forever-argument about Dallas selecting Zeke with the No. 4 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. He was "tags touching'' with DB Jalen Ramsey. Did the Cowboys pick him too high? Did they then pay him too much?

If Zeke experiences an MVP-level season, is the criticism forgotten?

More from Parson:

"Let's say the Cowboys go 13-3, win the NFC East, are the top seed in the conference and Elliott runs for more than 2,000 yards. If all that happens Dak Prescott will likely win the MVP. The MVP award is a quarterback award ...

"Take for example Randy Moss's 2007 season. He caught 91 passes for 1,493 yards and scored 23 touchdowns. That's about as historic of a season anyone can have, yet he did not receive one MVP vote. Tom Brady won the award in a landslide.''

Lesson learned in predicting (and betting) for 2020: Ezekiel Elliott is completely capable of being the No. 1 performer in the entire NFL. But the system is largely incapable of giving him the MVP trophy.

And another lesson still to learn: The judgment on drafting/paying Zeke cannot yet be finalized. If he and the Cowboys never win big (MVPs, playoff games), it'll have been a failure. If Dallas ever succeeds on a championship level? Cowboys Nation will be having too much fun at the parade to reflect on old drafts and bloated caps.