Dream and Nightmare Scenarios For Every Rookie Quarterback

A total of 10 quarterbacks were selected throughout the 2026 NFL Draft. Despite Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall, he isn't guaranteed to begin the season as the starter. There's a decent chance not a single rookie quarterback starts Week 1.

That makes this quarterback class incredibly unique. A few selections possess pathways to relevance as rookies, but the general expectation is that the majority of them will grow and develop behind the scenes. There aren't immediate expectations.

We've gone through dream and nightmare scenarios for all 10 quarterbacks selected. Rookie seasons can provide challenges. These first-year quarterbacks must navigate uncertainty.

2026 NFL Draft: Dream & Nightmare Scenarios For all 10 Rookie Quarterbacks

Round 1: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders, No. 1 overall

Dream: Mendoza is expected to begin the campaign as the backup to veteran Kirk Cousins. The Raiders want him to gradually grow into the starting role. The best-case scenario is that Mendoza learns valuable lessons while sitting and learning before eventually replacing Cousins as the starter midway through the campaign. That could set up the reigning National Championship winner for instant success.

Nightmare: Mendoza looks highly unprepared whenever he replaces Cousins. The Raiders shouldn't abandon their alleged plan to bring him along slowly. There will be pressure to play the No. 1 overall quarterback. Rushing Mendoza's process could lead to bigger initial struggles.

Round 1: Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams, No. 13 overall

Dream: Ty Simpson's dream scenario is precisely what the Los Angeles Rams have planned for him. He'll sit the entire regular season behind reigning MVP Matthew Stafford. The Rams appear positioned for Super Bowl contention, especially after their Myles Garrett blockbuster. The inexperienced Simpson needs to sit and grow.

Nightmare: Stafford suffers an injury and Simpson is forced to play prematurely. With fewer than 20 college starts on his resume, many scouts felt the inexperienced Simpson wasn't ready to play right away. Being inserted into the Rams' lineup due to injury could do more harm than good.

Round 3: Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals, No. 65 overall

Dream: The rebuilding Arizona Cardinals shouldn't start Carson Beck in Week 1, but they should find out what they have in him before approaching the 2027 NFL Draft. Once the Cardinals are inevitably eliminated from postseason contention, Beck should replace Jacoby Brissett as the starter. Playing like the possible future solution whenever that happens would be the best possible outcome.

Nightmare: Brissett is involved in a contract-related standoff with the Cardinals. Hopefully that doesn't force Beck to start before he's ready. If Beck is inserted into the lineup prematurely, things could go sideways fast for the third-round quarterback.

Round 3: Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 76 overall

Dream: Drew Allar is a raw quarterback with unique intangibles like size and arm strength. He desperately needs to improve his mechanics behind the scenes. That means he shouldn't take a single regular-season snap as a rookie. With so many quarterbacks in Pittsburgh after signing Aaron Rodgers, Allar is currently the fourth option on Mike McCarthy's depth chart.

Nightmare: It's difficult to envision the nightmare scenario even coming true for Allar. Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, and Will Howard would all have to get injured (or traded) for him to enter the lineup. Perhaps the most realistic nightmare scenario is that the coaching staff realizes Allar is incapable of fixing his mechanics.

Round 4: Cade Klubnik, New York Jets, No. 110 overall

Dream: Cade Klubnik wins the New York Jets' backup quarterback job behind Geno Smith, defeating Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook in an offseason competition. Like the Cardinals earlier, the Jets should be invested in playing Klubnik at some point before the 2027 NFL Draft. There's been some early optimism in the building around Klubnik after OTAs.

Nightmare: The worst-case scenario is Klubnik quickly proves he's not an NFL-caliber quarterback and the Jets essentially wasted a fourth-round pick. Nobody legitimately expects Klubnik to be the Jets' long-term solution, but it'd be terrific for Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn if he was. We'll likely find out this season.

Round 5: Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles, No. 178 overall

Dream: Cole Payton is an inexperienced one-year starter with athleticism and desirable traits. The Philadelphia Eagles are loaded at quarterback, meaning he'll develop behind Jalen Hurts, Andy Dalton, and Tanner McKee. Payton deserves an opportunity to enjoy a pressure-free rookie season.

Nightmare: There's almost no realistic scenario where Payton plays regular-season snaps. The worst-case outcome is that Payton looks totally inept while practicing. The former North Dakota State standout could even end up on the practice squad as a rookie.

Round 6: Taylen Green, Cleveland Browns, No. 182 overall

Dream: Taylen Green is among the most athletic quarterbacks in NFL Combine history. The former Arkansas standout ran a 4.36 and leaped a 43.5-inch vertical. Green is extremely raw as a passer, and the Cleveland Browns will afford him an opportunity to practice behind Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders as a rookie.

Nightmare: Could the Browns trade Dillon Gabriel this offseason, promoting Green to the third quarterback position? It would require both Sanders and Watson to get injured for Green to even warrant consideration. Even then, the Browns would certainly sign a veteran quarterback.

Round 7: Athan Kaliakmanis, Washington Commanders, No. 223 overall

Dream: Athan Kaliakmanis is simply focused on making the Washington Commanders' 53-man roster. He's the clear-cut No. 3 behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. Convincing the Commanders to carry three quarterbacks on the active roster represents his best possible outcome.

Nigthmare: Kaliakmanis is out-played by Sam Hartman and is released during final cuts. It would be shocking if Kaliakmanis doesn't outperform Hartman and make Washington's 53-man roster. That's precisely what the Commanders drafted him to do.

Round 7: Behren Morton, New England Patriots, No. 234 overall

Dream: Does seventh-round quarterback Behren Morton have a realistic path to win the backup job behind Drake Maye? Tommy DeVito is the only other quarterback on the New England Patriots' roster. Morton needs to perform admirably during training camp and the preseason.

Nightmare: Morton is so uninspiring that the Patriots are forced to sign another veteran QB to support Maye. The experienced Texas Tech graduate faces a clearer pathway than most seventh-round quarterbacks. Morton has to take advantage.

Round 7: Garrett Nussmeier, Kansas City Chiefs, No. 253 overall

Dream: The pre-draft process was humbling for Garrett Nussmeier. Once viewed as a potential first-round pick, he slid to the Kansas City Chiefs with the ninth-last pick of the entire draft. Nussmeier will spend his rookie offseason simply trying to prove he still belongs.

Nightmare: Justin Fields is established in the backup role behind Patrick Mahomes after the Chiefs traded for him this offseason. Will Nussmeier convince the Chiefs to carry three quarterbacks? Will he beat out Chris Oladokun?

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