Why the Giants Will Beat Miami, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants 2023 regular season is fast approaching an all-too-familiar--and not a good--place.

New York is currently 1-3 on the year, struggling to get out of the game without any sense of urgency or firepower. They are a heavy underdog against the Miami Dolphins, whom they visit this week, and are sure to be another heavy underdog next week when they face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.

That means that barring a miracle, head coach Brian Daboll's team could end up 1-6 by the time they return home on October 22 to host the Washington Commanders before closing out the month against the New York Jets at home.

And that means the Giants season could, in essence, be over by Halloween unless things turn around in a hurry.

The Giants' problems are well documented because it's been like a groundhog's type of scenario with this group--the offensive line, Daniel Jones, no turnovers, slow starts, etc. Daboll is well aware of the problems, but when asked about them, all he is willing to give as far as answers is that the entire team needs to do better and that the coaches need to coach better.

We've heard that every week since the Week 1 Dallas debacle, yet the more things change, the more they stay the same. Will that hold true again this weekend against the Miami Dolphins? Probably, but let's go through the scenarios.

Why the Giants Will Beat Miami

They probably won't. Let's make that clear. But since I always give you both sides of the argument, I think the Giants' only chance to beat Miami is if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is forced into making some mistakes.

That doesn't mean to blitz the heck out of Tua, which is what the Giants like to do, as evidenced by their having the second-highest blitz rate (49.6 percent) in the league.

Tua has completed 68.2 percent of his pass attempts (30 of 44) for 347 yards and four touchdowns when he's been blitzed. That's because he can get the ball out quickly to one of his speedsters, who can do some damage against a leaky pass defense like the Giants.

What the Giants need to do to give themselves a fighting chance is to pressure Tua without the blitz. When under pressure, Tua has completed 42.9 percent of his pass attempts, with one interception. Blitzing might be in the Gitns' DNA, but the more guys they can devote to coverage, the better their odds of forcing Tua into making a mistake.

Thus, the pressure has to get home with as few guys as possible, something that, at least on paper, shouldn't be that difficult to do, what with the Dolphins missing left tackle Teron Armstrong (IR) and with center Connor Williams questionable.

Can New York Giants Turn It Around?

Why the Giants Will Lose to Miami

The Miami offense is everything the Giants hoped their offense would be this year: efficient, explosive (they lead the league with 25 plays of 20+ yards), and solid.

Even in last week's loss to the Bills, a 48-20 affair, the Dolphins are still leading the league in average points scored per game (37.5), which averages out to 3.19 points per scoring drive (versus the Giants' 1.05 points per scoring drive).

The Giants problems, as we all know, are well documented. The offensive line has been a hot mess ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Daniel Jones has regressed to the point where even when he has a clean pocket in which to work, he still feels the need to bail.

The Giants defense can't seem to buy a turnover to save their lives, and they're just not making enough impact plays to influence the game. Their struggles out of the gate have led to a league-worst -76 point differential in the first half of games, which, by the way, has seen the Giants fail to score a touchdown in the first 30 minutes of the game this season--an unbelievable yet true (and damning) stat.

Not even the coaching staff, which last year did so much with so little, can seem to salvage what has fast become an out of control fire that has threatened to burn this 2023 season to the ground. This week, the offensive line will have its fifth different starting combination, as neither Andrew Thomas nor John Michael Schmitz will play. Other than to hope that the Dolphins have a bad day at the office (which you can argue they had last week against the Bills), what reasons are there to believe that this week will be any different for the Giants?

Maybe if they get Saquon Barkley back for this game--he's 50-50 to return--there would be a glimmer of hope for the Giants to move the ball. Even so, Barkley alone can't rescue this team from its disappointing early-year collapse despite the addition of the talent.

Wink Martindale Has Had Some Sleepless Nights Over Planning for Dolphins

Prediction

This Giants team right now is a complete mess. It lacks an identity, any sort of bite or cohesiveness, and a direction. This will be the fifth different starting offensive line combination in as many games, and I'm just not sure this unit can hold up against the better defenses, no matter who they trot out there.

I have concerns about the Dolphins speed on offense blowing by the Giants defensive secondary, and I just don't know how competitive the Giants can realistically be in this game. I'm still not convinced that the special teams, which had its worst game of the year last week, has been fixed.

I fear another ugly, blow-out loss in which this team won't be competitive because, let's face it, this team hasn't been very competitive this season, and I'm not sure they suddenly flip a switch to make that happen.

Dolphins 33, Giants 10

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