Why Giants Will Beat New England, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
The New York Giants host a well-rested New England Patriots team on Sunday that's coming off a bye. Since 1990, the Giants have been 16-11 when facing an opponent coming off a bye, and they are not.
While this meeting between the two Super Bowl adversaries won't have the same luster, the game is important for the Giants, and not just because it's the next game on their schedule.
Besides allowing head coach Brian Daboll and his staff a chance to evaluate some younger players ahead of next year, this game will be critical in determining if quarterback Tommy DeVito remains the starter.
Tyrod Taylor (rib cage) is eligible to return from IR after the Week 13 bye, and the thought process is that if DeVito holds up well against a Bill Belichick defense known for creating confusing looks, DeVito will likely remain under center for the rest of the season, bring anything major happening.
If not, figure the Giants go back to Taylor, who was playing well (albeit not as productive scoring-wise as DeVito) before his injury.
As for the team morale, any and every win is a big one. Can the Giants pull it off this week? Read on.
Why Giants Beat Patriots
The Patriots are a far cry these days from the powerhouse dynasty of the Tom Brady years. And one area in which the Giants can try to exploit is the Patriots pass defense, which has allowed 228.8 passing yards per game (tied for 18th) and 12 passing touchdowns.
That might not be good news for the Patriots in facing Giants QB Tomm DeVito. DeVito is three of seven on deep passes of 20+ yards, but he's also thrown two touchdown passes on those long balls.
Per Sharp Football Stats, the Patriots' blitz rate is seventh in the league (33.9 percent), but they also play man coverage on a league-high 41.4 percent of their passing plays.
DeVito has been sacked ten times when blitzed, largely due to his holding the ball too long. The tradeoff is he hasn't turned the ball over. Still, the Giants will likely test the Patriots deep a few times if the offensive line can hold up.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense has to get pressure against whoever is playing quarterback for New England (my guess is it will be Mac Jones). Jones has thrown as many touchdowns as he has interceptions this season (10), and he's been downright horrible when pressured, throwing half of his interceptions when under durress to go along with a 47.2 completion percentage and a 51.3 NFL rating.
Last week, the Giants defense blitzed Commanders' quarterback on just 26.9 percent of his dropbacks. Don't expect defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to go crazy with the blitz against the Patriots --the Giants have deployed the four-man rush on 51 percent of their pass rush snaps, per SIS, 31st in the league, but they have a 44 percent success rate, which is 14th.
The Giants could be without interior defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, who is listed as doubtful with a hamstring strain. Lawrence has a team-leading 53 pass-rush pressures this season and a 20 percent pass-rush win rate. If he is missing from the lineup, it will be interesting to see how Martindale adjusts.
Why The Giants Will Lose
There's legitimate reason to be concerned about the Patriots running game vs. the Giants' 29th-ranked run defense, especially if defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, listed as doubtful with a hamstring strain, doesn't play.
Lawrence is the Giants' top-graded defender right now, and it's not even close. His 22 stops are second on the team behind inside linebacker Bobby Okereke's 28. When Laweernece hasn't been on the field, it hasn't been pretty, so imagine (or don't if you don't want to ruin your day) what it might be like if he has to miss the enter game.
The strength of the Patriots offense of late has been its running game. Rhamondre Stevenson has logged 126 carries for 482 yards (3.8 yards-per-carry) with three touchdowns. Former Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott has run the ball 68 times for 331 yards (3.7 yards-per-carry) and two touchdowns.
Even with Lawrence playing, the Giants' run defense has allowed 135.1 yards per game, but it's fair to wonder if, in some cases, the Giants yielded the run to stop the pass of previous opponents. In the case of the Patriots, regardless of which quarterback they start, their passing game is ranked 26th, averaging 199.6 yards per game.
Rattling whichever quarterback starts for the Patriots--it might behoove New England to put Mac Jones in there against that aggressive Giants pass defense--if New York can't slow down that Patriots running game, it's going to be a long afternoon (again) for the home team.
With both Stevenson and Elliott having found their rhythm over the past couple of weeks, the Pats runners have the chance to be a bright spot in a sea of dismal performances on offense — especially against a Giants defense which (despite having a talented front seven) ranks 29th in the league, allowing 135.1 yards-per-game and 30th in yards-per-carry at 4.8. Should Stevenson start to break tackles early, it could mean a big day for the Patriots runners.
Prediction
The Giants enter this game as a 3.5-point underdog, the odds makers unconvinced that last week's dominating win over the Commanders means much. The Giants quarterback situation appears to be a little more stable right now than that of the Patriots, but as already noted, Belichick's schemes can set a young quarterback's hair on fire.
This one will be close, but in the end, I'm not overly confident that the Giants will make it two in a row for the first time this season.
Patriots 17, Giants 13
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