Why Giants Will Beat the Packers, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are next up in the league's International Series slate of games being played in London, kick off Sunday's Week 5 slate of games bright and early, with a 9:30 a.m. start.

It's the first time in the history of the London NFL games that both participating teams bring a winning record (both the Giants and Packers are 3-1) into the game. But more importantly, it's a chance for the Giants, who many people probably didn't think would be 3-1 at this point, to continue validating that they are indeed on the right track under the new regime of general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll.

The Giants' success thus far has mainly resulted from their defense's stinginess in allowing third-down and red-zone conversions. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale's aggressive style of play includes getting after the quarterback but trying to create confusion up front, and so far, it's worked to near perfection.

"The players have studied the game, especially situational football, different things like third down and red zone,” Martindale said this week. “They’ve done a nice job of studying not only what we’re doing as a defense but what the offense does.”

This week, the Giants face a significant upgrade in competition in the form of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is a master at picking apart defenses that try to get too aggressive with him.

A win against Rodgers and the Packers would go a long way toward further validating that this Giants team is legit rather than a group getting it done on smoke and mirrors. So let's take a look at both sides of the equation.

Why the Giants Will Win

The Giants have been pretty much riding the legs of running back Saquon Barkley, the league's rushing leader and all-purpose yardage leader. And you know what they say about if it ain't broke, right?

Seriously, the Packers are a team that has refrained from loading up the box with 8+ men this season, probably due to their safety being inconsistent in run support. Even on those few times this season the Packers have loaded up the box, opponents have still managed to average 6.03 yards per carry.

The Packers have also been sloppy int he tackling department, posting 25 missed tackles in four games.

One thing that the Giants have cut back on with Barkley is getting him involved in the passing game. After logging a season-high seven pass targets in Week 1, that number has dropped to four in Weeks 2 and 3 and two last week.

Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka said that given the issues with receivers, getting Barkley more involved in the passing game is on the table.

"Oh, absolutely. I think we have stuff like that for him on a week-to-week basis," he said. "Those are things we evaluate when we’re trying to get him out in space or use him in the run game. Those are things that we have every week. We have them up every week, and depending on what the defense is doing, those are things that we might get to."

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the Giants' defense as a reason they can win this game. We're talking about the No. 2 ranked third-down defense (29.41 percent, behind the league-leading Packers) and the No. 2 ranked red-zone defense (25.71 percent conversion rate, behind Denver).

"I think the guys, the players themselves, have studied the game, especially situational football, different things like third down and red zone," defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said of those two aspects of the defense's performance. "They’ve done a nice job of studying not only what we’re doing as a defense but what the offense does. It’s going to be a great challenge this week."

Why The Giants Will Lose

Two words: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback is a master at carving up defenses that try to get too aggressive against him.

That's not good news for Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who now must weigh when to blitz Rodgers (if at all) versus when to play it straight.

"The way to attack him changes from year to year of who he has with him. The thing that separates him is everybody knows that he’s a Hall of Fame quarterback, I think we’d all agree on that, and that’s from him throwing as many touchdowns as he has," Martindale said.

"So, everybody knows that, but what they don’t appreciate, which I do, is just the great football mind that he has. He gets them in the right run game, he gets protections right, and he knows the pressures are coming. He’s a great student of the game, and I admire how he goes about playing this game."

Given the Giants' injuries in the back end of the defense--they'll be without Aaron Robinson, who was placed on IR while Fabian Moreau, who is coming off an ankle injury, will try to gut it out--Martindale might just have to hope that his defensive front can get the job done in moving Rodgers off his spot.

Last year with the Ravens, Martindale faced a similar situation while planning against Rodgers. Martindale's Ravens defensive secondary was banged up, so the Ravens only ended up blitzing Rodgers twice in their Week 15 meeting, Rodgers going 1 of 2 for 22 yards.

The other factor to be concerned about is the Packers running game, which is seventh in the league. The Giants run defense is currently ranked 28th in the league (141 yards/game), but the good news is that they're expecting Leonard Williams back, albeit on a pitch count, after the defensive lineman missed the last two games with a sprained MCL. They'll need all hands on deck against Aaron Jones, who is currently seventh in the league in rushing yardage.

Prediction

On paper, the Packers haven't looked like the juggernaut of recent years, but Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, a guy that has completed 69 percent of his passes for 935 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. And I haven't even mentioned the Packers' defense, which has held opponents to 17.3 points per game, seventh in the league.

The Giants, currently the only defense in the NFL without an interception, just won't be able to sustain winning if they continue throwing for under 200 yards. I think this will be a low-scoring game in which the Giants get their first loss on British soil after going 2-0 in previous International Series appearances.

Packers 23, Giants 17

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