Why New York Giants Will Beat Carolina, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants 2022 regular season home opener against the Carolina Panthers has no shortage of storylines.

Leading the way is the "Gettleman Bowl," in which Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey and Giants running back Saquon Barkley, both top-10 draft picks chosen by former general manager Dave Gettleman during his stints with each team (Carolina in 2017 and the Giants in 2018), figuring to be key parts of their respective offense's game plans.

Then there is the return of Ben McAdoo, now the Panthers offensive coordinator, who was Giants head coach from 2016-2017 and the last head coach to lead the Giants to a year-end winning record and a postseason berth (in 2016). McAdoo was also the first Giants head coach since Bill Arnspartger to be fired in-season, his dismissal coming after 13 weeks of a 2017 season that simply imploded.

But ask either team about the past, and they'll probably wave it off dismissively. For the Giants, coming off an upset win against the Titans last week, and the Panthers, who suffered a disappointing two-point loss to the Browns, it's all about the present.

The Giants' win last week has only stoked the excitement among the fan base, who, if the players and coaches get their wish, will bring the noise Sunday. Can New York notch its first 2-0 regular-season start since 2016? Let's weigh both sides.

Why the Giants Will Win

The Giants probably won't have edge rushers Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari again after both were listed as doubtful on the week-ending injury report. But with the Panthers having revamped their offensive line--they have rookie first-rounder Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle and second-year guard Brady Christensen at left guard--the Panthers gave up four sacks among six quarterback hits last week.

Last week, the Giants blitzed on 48.6 percent of their pass rushes (third most), producing six hurries, four knockdowns, one sack, and 11 pressures. The expectation is that Martindale will look to turn up the heat by overloading that left side of the offensive formation while looking to scheme pressure.

Rightfully so. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was pressured on 42.4 percent of his dropbacks last week and went three of nine for 103 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

Worth noting from this week in practice: the Giants' defensive front worked on getting their hands up into the passing lanes. Mayfield has 51 career batted balls, including four last week, and if the Giants can knock a few of those down, and maybe one takes a lucky bounce the right way, that could be a game changer.

Why the Giants Will Lose

If Titans running back Derrick Henry is a modern-era Jim Brown in the eyes of Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, Panthers' running back Christian McCaffrey is a modern-day Barry Sanders.

That's not good news for the Giants linebackers, who, while doing a decent enough job to slow down Henry last week, had their share of issues in coverage. And it's in coverage where McCaffrey is especially dangerous, having shown a propensity to find the soft spots in coverage and get into position to snatch the ball and pick up yardage.

McCaffrey is averaging 8.0 yards after the catch in his career and has not had a drop since he had six in 2019. He's also forced 77 missed tackles over his career, proving to be difficult to wrap up.

The Giants linebackers, Tae Crowder and Austin Calitro had their issues with zone coverage last week, combining to allow four of five pass targets to be completed for 53 yards, 27 after the catch. They will have to do a much better job this week of tightening things up; if they don't, it could make for a long--and lost--afternoon.

What Will Probably Happen

This is the first of a three-game home stretch for the Giants, and truth be told, this game is probably the biggest challenge in that it will likely come down to who has the ball last.

While I feel confident the Giants can pull this one out, I also think it will be a close game in which the lead changes hands a few times.

Giants 27, Panthers 24

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