Why the Giants Can Defeat the Bucs, Why They Won’t, and What's Actually Going to Happen

The Giants have had over a week to think about their last loss, a 22-21 decision to the Philadelphia Eagles.

While head coach Joe Judge and the players insist they don’t dwell on the past, the fact remains that in the game against the Eagles, just like I the games against the Bears, Rams, and Cowboys, the Giants ended up hurting themselves more so that the opponent did.

Stupid mistakes, blown opportunities, losing their cool—it’s all been a staple of the Giants losses, and one that Judge’s young team needs to get under control to show the critics that they’re ready to not only be competitive but win games.

So what will happen Monday night when quarterback Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2, but whose two losses were by one point each) come to town to visit a Giants team that is 25-42-2 on Monday Night Football?

Here are different ways this game could play out.

The Giants will win because ...

-- They took a page out of the 2007 and 2011 Giants championship teams that made Brady’s day by getting in his face. Although Brady is older and supposedly wiser, that trend of getting in his face still holds. This season, he has completed just 42.9% of his pass attempts when under pressure versus 70.8% when given all day to throw the ball.

-- New York got a few deep passes off successfully. If there’s one area where the Bucs defense is “vulnerable,” it’s against the deep ball, where their aggressiveness upfront can work against them. Tampa Bay has allowed 19 passes of 20 or more yards this season, 13th in the NFL, and per league stats, opponents have converted 32% of their third downs of greater than six yards (22nd).

-- The Giants figured out how to shut down the Bucs red-zone offense, which is tied with the Chiefs (100%) for the league lead in scoring at least a field goal on possessions inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Bucs have scored 22 touchdowns and six field goals on their 28 red-zone trips and are tied with Seattle for most red-zone passing touchdowns (15).

-- The revamped offensive line finally functions as a human wall. If it can give quarterback Daniel Jones, who is absorbing on average 17.5 pressures per game (including 2.85 sacks per game this season) time to make his reads and set up, Jones should be able to build off of his previous game’s showing against the Eagles, his best game of the season.

-- The Bucs are looking ahead to their rematch with the Saints the following week, who beat them 34-23 in Week 1. Interestingly, Giants head coach Joe Judge spoke about teams that aren't as tuned in to the current task at hand as they should be. He might have been talking about the Bills from his days with the Patriots, but was he instead hinting at the Bucs?

-- Eli Manning makes a cameo appearance. Not only did Manning's offenses outduel Brady’s in two memorable Super Bowls, but when Manning made a cameo during Super Bowl LII via what's still one of the most creative league-backed commercials ever, some thought it created just enough of a hex to cause Brady’s Patriots to fall to the Philadelphia Eagles, 41-33.

The Giants will lose because ...

-- Old friend and current Bucs defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, he of 5.5 sacks, which is third among NFL leaders, decides that it’s not “all love” for the Giants and that he’d rather make good on his statement about “coming for the Giants’ necks.”

-- Giants quarterback Daniel Jones turns the ball over again. The Giants quarterback is still looking for his first career game where he doesn’t lose the ball (he does have one game from last year where despite losing the handle, the Giants recovered the loose ball). This Bucs team is an opportunistic group, one that has scored 185 points off takeaways since 2019, the most in the league.

-- Giants cornerback James Bradberry forgets the little nuances in covering Bucs receiver Mike Evans, a receiver Bradberry frequently saw during his time in Carolina. According to historical data compiled from PFF, Evans managed to catch 12 of 20 pass targets for 157 yards when covered by Bradberry.

-- Brady, 4-1 against the Giants in the regular season, and the red hot Bucs offense, which has scored 83 points in its last two games (against the Packers and Raiders, respectively), continue on that pace. Tampa Bay currently leads the league in scoring with 222 points (31.7 points/game), and the Giants defense is allowing an average of 24.9 points again. If those trends all hold up, the Giants are in for a long night.

-- Running back Ronald Jones II, who after rushing for three straight 100-yard performances had an “off day” last week against the Raiders, picks up where he left off during his streak in Weeks 4-6. Jones, who currently ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and sixth in scrimmage yards, is averaging 5.0 rushing yards per attempt on 73 carries. The Giants defense has allowed 105 rushing yards per game this season.

What actually will happen ...

Unless there is some magic left in the throwback uniforms the Giants are breaking out for this nationally televised game (the ones from their Super Bowl XXV season), I don’t see how the Giants can overcome what is a bad matchup across the board.

Young QB, retro threads 🧵 pic.twitter.com/VnFm1bibSk
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 31, 2020

Bucs 35, Giants 17