Why the Giants Will Beat the Eagles, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

Normally Philly week is a big one for the Giants.

Given how the schedule and results have fallen, this week's home game against an 11-1 Eagles team seems almost like an exercise in futility for the 7-4-1 Giants. A victory over a divisional rival would be among the season highlights, especially against an Eagles team that has won nine of its last 11 meetings against the Giants.

But to put things into perspective, a loss to the Eagles won't necessarily hurt the Giants' quest for a postseason berth, as would a loss the following week to Washington. That said, to think that head coach Brian Daboll is looking ahead because he's resigned to thinking that his team has no chance against the Eagles would probably be unwise.

On paper, the Eagles are a loaded team at every position and have been playing their best ball. The Giants, meanwhile, have been in a bit of a tailspin, their last win coming over the Texans a little more than a month ago.

But games aren't played on paper, and although the Eagles are favored, the expectation is the Giants will give it all they can in hopes of not only standing toe-to-toe with the best team in football right now but somehow pulling off an upset.

Why the Giants Will Beat the Eagles

A key to keeping things close against the Eagles--or, as Washington found out, defeating them--is to run the ball. This year, seven teams have rushed for 100+ yards against the Eagles. In one game (vs. Washington), the Eagles lost. The Eagles' margin of victory was one score or less in three others.

Despite their running game struggles over the last four weeks, the Giants' rushing game is ranked sixth league-wide, averaging 149.7 yards per game and 12th in average yards per carry (4.64). That would be a good matchup against the 17th-ranked Eagles run defense which has allowed 117.9 rushing yards per game and an average of 4.64 yards per carry (24th).

With there being a question as to whether Saquon Barkley (neck) will be good to go Sunday, the Giants will likely have to put together a committee approach regardless that includes quarterback Daniel Jones along with Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell.

Why the Giants Will Lose to the Eagles

Philadelphia is stacked, they're mostly healthy, and they are at the top of their game right now. The Giants are banged up--they could be without defensive lineman Leonard Williams and running back Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable with a neck ailment for the game, which makes him a game-time decision. They have also proven every week since their last win that they can't overcome mistakes unless they play as close to a perfect game as possible.

But let's look more so at a possible strategy. In the previous section, I mentioned the importance of trying to run the ball. The problem the Giants potentially face is that if the Eagles load the box, do the Giants have enough firepower in the passing game to loosen things up?

The numbers suggest they might not. The Giants are averaging 180.4 passing yards per game, 28th in the league, and 6.19 yards per pass play, 24th in the league. The various receiving targets have 21 drops on the year, an average of 1.75 per game, and their contested catch rate is a dismal 48.9 percent. Those numbers are not encouraging, especially against the league's best pass defense.

Prediction

The weather forecast is supposed to be nasty--current forecast is calling for a 100 percent chance of precipitation. Some believe that will favor the Giants and their ground game. Still, the Eagles also have a pretty good ground game that's ranked fifth in the league, going against a Giants run defense that again could be without Leonard Williams and which ranks 26th (allowing 141.6 yards per game).

The matchups are not very positive for this one. The best the Giants can probably hope for is to keep it close. If they can do that, it might be the needed spark to finish out the regular season on a tear, much in the same way the 2007 Giants got a boost lost to the undefeated Patriots but kept it close and suddenly got hot thanks to the confidence they built up in that game.

If the Giants can get some turnovers, that will go a long way to keeping it close. If not, it could make for a long afternoon.

Eagles 33, Giants 17

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