Giants Country

Why Giants Will Beat the Vikings, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

Both the Giants and Vikings have something big to play for this weekend. Who will come out on top?
Patricia Traina|
Why Giants Will Beat the Vikings, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
Why Giants Will Beat the Vikings, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

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New York Giants

The goal for the New York Giants is simple: Defeat the Minnesota Vikings and hope that the 49ers and Chiefs take care of business against the Commanders and Seahawks, and the plane ride back to New Jersey will be a very merry one indeed.

Ah, but the next time an NFL game is that simple will be the first. The Vikings, who clinched a postseason berth by winning the NFC North last week, are in a prime position to gain ground against the Philadelphia Eagles (13-1), who will be without starting quarterback Jalen Hurts against the Cowboys.

If the Vikings win and the Eagles lose, that will put Minnesota (11-3) in a lot better shape to make a run for the No. 1 playoff seed and a first-round bye in the NFC.

The Vikings enter this weekend's game as a 3.5 favorite, no doubt getting the benefit of the doubt due to the home-field advantage, but the Giants have a 10-4 record against the spread so far this year.

How will the game unfold? Let's look at the scenarios.

Why the Giants Will Win

The Giants did a good enough job last week at controlling the line of scrimmage, their pass rush coming out in full force. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is not as effective when under pressure--per Pro Football Focus, he's completed 50.3 percent of his pass attempts against pressure.

That's good news for a Giants pass rush that last week was mostly able to get home with pressure using only four rushers. They will be facing a Vikings offensive line that's missing its starting center and which ranks 27th in pass-blocking efficiency (82.8) and has allowed the second most pressure in the league.

The Giants offense has had its share of struggles scoring, but they will be going against a Vikings team with a point differential of +2. The Vikings defense is also last in yards allowed (399 yards/game), 31st against the pass, 18th against the run, and has the 28th-ranked scoring defense (24.9 points per game allowed).

The Giants have averaged 20.5 average points per game. If they can open up their scoring and push toward 30 points in this one, they will give themselves a better chance at pulling off the upset.

Why the Giants Will Lose

The Vikings offense has scored under 20 points just twice this season, both losses. They'll likely look to exploit the Giants defensive secondary, which as part of the pass defense, is ranked 16th in the league (216.9 yards per game).

Another thing the Vikings will look to do is stunt the Giants rushing game, as led by Saquon Barkley, and force New York to beat them through the air. No, the Vikings don't have a top-10 pass defense--they've allowed an average of 278.8 yards per game, which is 31st in the league. 

But they're going against a Giants offense that hasn't thrown the deep ball much this season (only 21 times), partly due to a subpar receiver corps and partly due to pass protection issues that have seen the Giants quarterbacks sacked 44 times this year. (fifth most in the league).

And let's not forget the Vikings rushing game against a Giants run defense that hasn't been very good this year. Minnesota will use the run duo of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to set up play-action against a run defense that has allowed opposing rushers to gain 5.4 yards per carry.

If Minnesota can jump out to an early lead, the Giants will have little choice but to try to beat them through the air. If that is the case, the Giants will likely try a lot of underneath passes that the Vikings should be able to defend.  

Prediction

Much like last week, we're looking at two similar teams except for one very big difference: the Vikings have much more firepower on offense.

Minnesota is ranked eighth in scoring (25.1 points per game) and has averaged 29.7 points per game in their last three. If they reach those totals, it's going to be hard for a Giants team that has scored over 25 points once this season (27 vs. Green Bay in Week 5) to walk out of there with a win.

Vikings 30, Giants 21 

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Patricia Traina
PATRICIA TRAINA

Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for 30+ seasons, and her work has appeared in multiple media outlets, including The Athletic, Forbes, Bleacher Report, and the Sports Illustrated media group. As a credentialed New York Giants press corps member, Patricia has also covered five Super Bowls (three featuring the Giants), the annual NFL draft, and the NFL Scouting Combine. She is the author of The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants. In addition to her work with New York Giants On SI, Patricia hosts the Locked On Giants podcast. Patricia is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America.

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