Evaluating the Positions Lions Could Target at No. 3
The Lions are currently slated to pick third overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.
With the mock draft season in full swing, there are a few fan favorites and commonalities among draft pundits regarding who the Lions will select.
The most frequently pegged players to Detroit at No. 3 overall are:
1.) Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
2.) Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
3.) Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
I would be remiss to not mention quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama as a possibility as well.
For the sake of this discussion, we are going to eliminate that option along with any trade-down scenarios.
Typically, a team selecting in the top three takes one of the "cornerstone" positions -- quarterback, offensive tackle or pass rusher.
Unfortunately for the Lions, pass rusher is a huge need.
However, if DE Chase Young does indeed go second overall like many predict, the value for the next closest EDGE defender doesn't match up well with where the Lions are positioned.
Everyone has their own viewpoint on whether or not the Lions should pull the trigger on their quarterback or tackle of the future.
In my personal opinion, the Lions have bigger holes at other positions of need.
In saying this, would it be a reach if the Lions were to select a cornerback, defensive tackle or linebacker in the top three?
Let's look at recent history to get a better idea of how often those positions are selected.
In the graph below, you will find every top-10 selection by the position selected since the 2000 NFL Draft.
As you can see, in the last 20 drafts, no cornerback has been drafted with the first three picks.
The sweet spot for cornerback appears to be right after the top three picks, though.
In regards to defensive tackles, there have been six selected in the top three within the same span.
Lastly, linebacker is another position that is rarely selected with a top draft pick.
The last off-ball linebacker to be drafted with a top-three pick was LaVar Arrington all the way back in the 2000 NFL Draft.
Even if Simmons were to be more of a safety in Detroit head coach Matt Patricia's defense, none have been selected in the top four in the past 20 years of the draft.
Obviously, if a player at any position is a rare talent, there is the possibility that positional value goes out the window.
With the NFL quickly evolving, draft tendencies can shift.
Perhaps the best method to utilize to really understand how the NFL currently values certain positions is to study what each position is being paid.
Using the franchise-tag price point for each position from last year, you can get a good idea of what positions are valued more than others.
In order to determine how much a franchise-tagged player will make, the NFL averages out the previous season's top-five paid players at the position.
In essence, the figures below will demonstrate how much teams are willing to pay top talent -- regardless of where the player lines up on the field.
2019 Franchise-Tag Values
QB: $24.865 million
RB: $11.214 million
WR: $16.787 million
TE: $10.387 million
OL: $14.067 million
DE: $17.128 million
DT: $15.209 million
LB: $15.443 million
CB: $16.022 million
S: $11.15 million
It's no secret that the NFL is trending towards a passing league.
Quarterbacks will always be a bit of an outlier with their exorbitant contracts.
Based off what teams are willing to pay cornerbacks, it would appear that the position is an important one in the eyes of the NFL.
Defensive tackles and linebackers aren't too far behind in terms of salary, either.
With Patricia's defensive scheme, the Lions may prioritize certain positions more than the rest of the NFL -- like more emphasis on coverage ability than pass rush.
Coming from the New England Patriots -- which have the second-highest overall payroll dedicated to a secondary unit in the NFL -- Patricia may really like the idea of drafting Okudah at No. 3.
Remember, just a season ago, Detroit general manager Bob Quinn gave defensive back Justin Coleman the biggest contract in the league for a slot corner.
There were also reports of the Lions pursuing the likes of Richard Sherman and Malcolm Butler in past offseasons.
The Lions aren't afraid to invest heavily in their cornerback room.
There is a narrative out there that the Lions shouldn't draft an "ancillary" position because you have to take advantage of high draft status to grab a player at a more important position.
Yes, there is some merit to that philosophy.
Due to the NFL's collective bargaining agreement, a rookie's contract is almost set in stone based on where the individual is selected.
Teams can choose to take on a cheap rookie deal at a high-priced position instead of overpaying for the same position on the open market. That's a major bonus.
For example, if both a tight end and defensive end have an identical pre-draft grade and perform equally on the field relative to their position, a team will get much better value from the rookie contract for a defensive end.
That's one reason the Lions' selection of tight end T.J. Hockenson at No. 8 overall a year ago was criticized.
As you can see from the average top-five salary chart, elite tight ends are much cheaper than elite pass rushers.
It's important to note, too, that both of the teams playing in the Super Bowl this year -- the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers -- have top-tier tight ends.
For whatever reason, though, the average salary for tight ends hasn't caught up to other positions.
Maybe that will change in the near future.
If a player at any position selected becomes a Pro Bowler or All-Pro, it really makes no difference where the individual is drafted.
The Lions shouldn't pigeonhole themselves into only drafting a quarterback, pass rusher or left tackle.
Take the best player available, as we all know the Lions are in desperate need of true difference makers all across the field.
Ideally, the Lions could get a king's ransom for their third overall pick, and still select the player they covet.
But, just in case they can't move down in the draft order, they shouldn't feel bad about drafting an elite cornerback or defensive tackle.
As far as Simmons' fit with the Lions, he is the wild card.
Whether he would be utilized more as a linebacker or safety or equally utilized as both, selecting him in the top three would go against the norm.
Maybe he is a unique case that negates all previous value charts, but that's for Quinn and Patricia to decide.
Seemingly every year, the Lions take a player in the first round, and the revisionist-history types ask the same question: "What if the Lions drafted player 'x'?"
There is going to be a future All-Pro on the board when the Lions are on the clock at No. 3.
They just need to make the right pick, regardless of where he lines up on the field.
If they miss this golden opportunity, it could spell the end of the Quinn & Patricia era.
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