Odds Lions Beat Giants for Second Straight Road Win
The Lions (3-6) will attempt to win their second straight road game in their Week 11 matchup with the New York Giants (7-2).
If Detroit secures the victory, it'll also mark the team's third consecutive win, plus the first three-game win streak of the Dan Campbell era.
As for the Giants, they're coming off a 24-16 win in Week 10 against the Houston Texans, and they've won five of their last six games.
For the season as a whole, New York has allowed no more than 27 points in a single game, and ranks ninth in points against (19.2 points a game).
The Giants have also been stout on third down. In fact, they come into this Week 11 contest as the second-best team in the NFL at stopping the opposition on third down. They've allowed opponents to convert at a clip of just 32.71 percent on the aforementioned down.
It makes for a challenging assignment for Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's unit.
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Remember, Detroit has averaged just 15.8 points over its last five games. So, the Lions could have a difficult time both executing on third down and scoring points this Sunday.
"No, man, this is -- this is a good group now. (Giants defensive coordinator) Coach (Don Martindale) has these guys going," Johnson told reporters Thursday about the Giants' defense. "We played him last year when he was in Baltimore, and similarities are there. Personnel’s different, but schematically, they’re the same for the most part and it creates a lot of issues for an offense. They put stress on an offensive unit, probably more so than most defenses in this league. So, yeah, we carry a lot of burden identifying these looks. We have to be able to communicate, be on the same page in order to execute this week.
"But, third down, it is man coverage, it’s fire zone, it’s pressure left and right. They’re loading it this way, bringing it that way. I mean, for an inexperienced player out there, you can see where guys would have their heads just spinning. So, that’s our challenge as a coaching staff, to try to simplify it for our guys, and then execute there on third down. But, we haven’t been great on third down. Last couple of weeks, we’ve been a little bit better. But, it’s still not where we need it to be. So, we’ve got our work cut out for us for sure.”
Then, for the Lions defensively, their main priority should be limiting the production of Giants star running back Saquon Barkley.
Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports
It'll be easier said than done, as Barkley has rushed for 931 yards, on 198 carries, through nine games this season. It leaves the Penn State product with a yards-per-carry average of 4.7 yards and a league-best yards-per-game average of 103.4 yards.
The talented runner is also coming off a 35-carry, 152-yard performance against the Texans.
Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is well aware of the fact that Barkley is an elite back.
"Every week, you’re dealing with really, really good players. And, the thing you do for the most part is understand exactly who are the elite players and what do they do best, and how can you neutralize them? And, how can you make them play left-handed? Harder done than me sitting here saying it," Glenn expressed. "But, man, you talk about vision, you talk about being able to break a tackle and take it the distance. That’s the one trait that you see with him (Barkley) that’s unlike any other back that we’ve went against.
"So, the ability to make sure we get the ball down is important with that player. Population to the ball is important with that player. This jump cut, his ability to burst is probably the best I’ve seen this year, as far as a running back. Even the ones, the good ones we’ve been against. And, I think he’s on pace to -- I think he’s leading the league in rushing, so that tells you the story of who this guy is. So, it’s a hard job, alright? But, I think our guys are up for the job, and each week, we have to go against a good player and it is what it is.”
I don't think it's blasphemous to say the Lions have a chance in this road tilt. The Giants aren't world-beaters, and have played more like a 5-4 team than a 7-2 one.
However, I also don't think Detroit, at this present juncture, is going to win two straight road games. It's why I'm giving Campbell's squad a 35 percent chance of pulling off the Week 11 upset.
