Behind Enemy Lines with Bill Huber of Packer Central
Each and every single week, we will take a full dive into the Panthers' opponent by getting insight from many talented beat writers and publishers around the Sports Illustrated network. This week, we bring on Bill Huber of Packer Central to help us breakdown the Green Bay Packers. Enjoy!
Strengths/weaknesses of Packers offense
Green Bay is No. 1 in the NFL in scoring. Aaron Rodgers should be the NFL MVP, Davante Adams has dominated at receiver, Aaron Jones provides a quality running attack, Robert Tonyan is the tight end they’ve been looking for for years and the offensive line, despite some key injuries, has made it all work. The Packers can move the ball by passing or running. They can score with big plays or methodical efficiency.
Rodgers-to-Adams has been an unstoppable combination. It’s a case of talent and experience adding up to a remarkable connection. Last week, Adams set an NFL record with eight consecutive games with six-plus catches and one-plus touchdown. He is fourth in catches, sixth in yards and first in touchdowns despite missing about two-and-a-half games early in the season.
Rodgers, meanwhile, is No. 1 passer rating and touchdown passes. His touchdown-to-interception ratio of 39 to 4 is one of the best in NFL history. He’s had a 105-plus passer rating in all but one game. He has fully embraced coach Matt LaFleur’s way of doing things. Considering he doesn’t have an abundance of weapons, this is Rodgers’ finest season.
Strengths/weaknesses of Packers defense
If the Packers can ever get to third-and-long, the pass rush is legit. It’s got 11 sacks the last two games. Its 8.08 percent sack rate is seventh in the league. Za’Darius Smith hasn’t been as dominant as last season but he’s among the league leaders in sacks, and Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and Kingsley Keke are legit threats.
The problem is getting to third-and-long. The middle of the defense is Charmin-soft. Christian McCaffrey, if he plays, could catch 20 passes and have 250 yards of total offense if that’s the direction the Panthers want to go. The Packers are 23rd in yards allowed per carry but at least are trending the right way. They’ve been terrible in the red zone and, unlike most of the past dozen seasons, haven’t forced many turnovers.
Most Packers fans consider the defense the reason why they’re not going to win the Super Bowl. And they might be right. While they’re eighth in yards allowed, they’re 16th in points. Can a great offense and mediocre defense get the job done?
3 players folks don't know much about, but should.
Among tight ends, Tonyan is tied with Kansas City’s Travis Kelce with a league-leading nine touchdowns. He’s athletic enough to make plays downfield and has a really good feel for getting open. It’s amazing: The Packers have poured an enormous amount of resources into the position but have solved it with a former college quarterback who went undrafted in 2017 and was out of the league entirely for most of his rookie season.
Elgton Jenkins, the team’s usual starting left guard, has started games at left guard, right tackle and, now, center in place of injured Corey Linsley. The only position he hasn’t played this season is right guard. A second-round pick in 2019, he is a building-block type of player. Once Linsley returns, it’s hard to beat Green Bay’s left-side combination of All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari and Jenkins.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is one of the fastest players in the NFL and provides a legit big-play threat. He drops too many passes but his ability to stretch the field makes life easier for everyone else. And he’s not afraid to do the dirty work as a blocker.
Keys to the game for Green Bay
They’ve got to keep McCaffrey under control, plain and simple. He’s a tough matchup for any defense but especially so for the Packers, who don’t have a legit coverage linebacker. Safety Raven Greene had been playing those linebacker snaps but he’s out for the season with a shoulder injury.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have a knack for stripping the football. Carolina has a league-leading 13 takeaways on fumbles alone. That’s big time. So long as the Packers take care of the football – they’ve done that well for most of the season – they should be productive. But on a chilly night with a chance for a bit of snow, who knows?
And the special teams are a hot mess. Simply avoiding a disastrous play would be a step in the right direction.
Prediction for the game
There’s a reason why Green Bay is 10-3 and Carolina is 5-8. The Packers are the better team. I’m not sure about Carolina’s level of motivation but the Packers are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed. Moreover, there’s plenty of good Panthers film to catch the players’ attention.
Given the number of close games the Panthers have played, I’d be surprised to see a blowout. But, for this early in the week, I’ll go 31-24.
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