Just How Long Will the Panthers Rebuild Last?
Since falling to the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, the Carolina Panthers have only reached the playoffs once and failed to get past the wild card round. Over the last two years, the Panthers have been heading in the wrong direction with an aging team and it was time to wipe the slate clean and start over.
This offseason, the Panthers lost a ton of production. They let Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Dontari Poe, James Bradberry and several others hit free agency. Luke Kuechly decided to retire at the age of 29, the team traded five-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Trai Turner to the Los Angeles Chargers and oh yeah, hired former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule to replace Ron Rivera, who is now leading the Redskins.
With that said, times are changing in Charlotte and that may turn out to be a good thing. NFL rebuilds are oftentimes some of the toughest projects to go through in professional sports. There are 22 starting spots that must be filled compared to only say nine for baseball and five for basketball and hockey. Not to mention, if you are cap-strapped like that Panthers are, it makes the beginning of the rebuild that much tougher.
When the Panthers front office decided to part ways with Ron Rivera and look in a different direction, they had to find someone who brought a winning attitude and culture to the organization. Matt Rhule fits the bill almost perfectly, which is why I believe he was a home run hire for Carolina. Rhule knows exactly how to rebuild a program, I mean just look at his track record. He resurrected both the Temple and Baylor football programs from the proverbial dead in a year or two's time.
Yes, NFL rebuilds are much more challenging than rebuilds at the collegiate level. However, if you can get the guys on the roster to buy-in to what you are doing as a head coach, it makes things much simpler. So, when you ask why Matt Rhule is bringing in some of his former players such as Tahir Whitehead, Robby Anderson, P.J. Walker, Bravvion Roy, Keith Kirkwood, etc., it is to help ease the culture into the locker room. These guys are firsthand proof of what it is like to play for Matt Rhule. They understand what he wants and understand what it will take to be successful under his direction.
So, with every rebuild comes the question: How long will it take? Although there is no concrete answer, I would say much quicker than expected. How am I so confident? Here's how:
1. Establish trust
To win over a locker room, the players have to put their full trust and faith in a head coach. They may not see eye-to-eye on certain things, but at the end of the day, it is all about building trust. Having guys who have played under Rhule in years past can help the overall team's trust, as I mentioned previously.
2. Rhule has the blueprint
In a rebuild, no expects a head coach to turn things around in one season. It takes time and patience. Fortunately for Panthers fans, they may not need to have a ton of patience. During his first year at Temple, Rhule went 2-10, but followed that up with a 6-6 season, and then back-to-back 10 win seasons, which is unheard of for Temple. At Baylor, Rhule went 1-11 in year one, then followed that up by going 7-6 in 2018 and 11-3 in 2019. Marginal improvement from year to year is what Panthers fans should be looking for. He has went through this twice and knows what steps need to be taken to get back to relevancy. So, could we see the trend continue in Carolina where he would go say, 3-13 in 2020, 8-8 in 2021, and 11-5 or 12-4 in 2022? It's very possible. The NFL is a different beast, but if you have the blueprint, you have the recipe for success.
3. Draft well
To get a franchise turned back in the right direction, you 100%, absolutely have to have success drafting. Several teams, such as the Browns, have been stuck in a rut for years because of the inability to draft well. Following the 2020 NFL Draft last month, I think it's safe to say Matt Rhule has a pretty strong grasp of how to draft. Now obviously, we won't have any answers until games are played, but on paper, he and the Panthers crushed the draft. They selected Derrick Brown with the 7th overall pick, who could easily be the best defensive player taken in this year's draft. They rode that momentum into round two with the selection of top edge rusher Yetur Gross-Matos and traded back into the 2nd round for versatile safety Jeremy Chinn. They hit virtually (no pun intended) every team need that they had heading into the virtual draft.
4. Developmental progress
This is where Rhule's true coaching skill come into play. After piecing together an unbelievably strong draft class, now it is all about development. How will these young college stars adjust to the NFL style of play, the speed of the game, etc., all rides into the hands of the coaching staff. The Panthers sixth round pick, Bravvion Roy, is a perfect example of how Rhule develops players. During his first two years in seeing major playing time, Roy put together some solid performances, but really popped in 2020. This past season he finished with 61 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks - a huge increase from his previous season averages of 32.5 tackles, three tackles for loss and one sack. Roy is just one of many players who benefited from learning under Rhule and now, he'll get to continue that development with him at the next level.
5. Best practices with the salary cap
Once teams get their rebuild heading in the right direction, sometimes they will overpay some of the players on their roster to ensure that they don't hit free agency and leave. In some instances, it may be best to just let said player walk and find a cheaper, yet quality replacement. You don't want to get into a money crunch, because when that happens, you may be forced to blow up a majority of your team that you spent years rebuilding. Rhule walked into a tough situation with the Panthers not having much wiggle room on the salary cap. He and the front office let several experienced veterans walk because it wasn't worth the money (James Bradberry in particular). The situation that was dealt to Cam Newton was more on the Panthers front office than it was Rhule. Despite rumors flying around about Newton potentially returning to play for Rhule, the team decided to release him and move in a different direction. It is a tough move for any team to make, but Teddy Bridgewater is a much cheaper option for the Panthers at this point and he has familiarity with offensive coordinator, Joe Brady.
The Panthers have nearly the perfect mix of veterans and young promising players. With the signings of Robby Anderson, Tahir Whitehead, and acquisition of Russell Okung, those aren't moves that necessarily shout "full-on rebuild". Don't get me wrong, the Panthers will struggle in 2020 and possibly 2021. However, with the way the roster is currently constructed and possibly two more years of high first round picks, Carolina's rebuild won't be a long, drawn out process.
Prediction:
I'll go on the record and say by 2022, the Panthers will be back to being competitive at a fairly high level. It could happen sooner, but I don't see it taking longer than two full seasons. A lot of this will depend on the success of Teddy Bridgewater and if history proves itself once again, it will show that he is a winner.
How long do you think the Panthers rebuild will last? Is Matt Rhule the right guy for the job? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below!
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