REPORT: A Deep Dive Into the Ceilings of Raiders' QB Targets

Drafting a quarterback can sometimes be a crapshoot. That being said, there is an art to minimizing risk and making the right pick.

Some look at Ernie Accorsi, for example. He picked two Super Bowl-winning franchise quarterbacks, though both were slam-dunk No. 1 picks--John Elway and Eli Manning.

Granted, those quarterbacks both opted to not play for Accorsi's respective organizations (but that's another story, and it's long one told that has been told by ESPN's 30 for 30 and NFL Films).

Another good quarterback drafter is Hall of Fame GM Bill Polian. He drafted Jim Kelly for the Buffalo Bills and Peyton Manning for the Indianapolis Colts. Both are enshrined in Canton.

A prospect's floor might be the most important quality when drafting a quarterback, and finding that floor is excruciatingly difficult. The ceiling is what everyone loves--how good can this guy be? It is also slightly more easy to see. Size, arm-strength, athleticism. Again, slightly (i.e., Tom Brady).

Pro Football Focus went about trying to find the ceilings for the top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft class, measuring by mentality, physical traits, and metrics.

Trevor Sikkema wrote, "The first factor is physical talent--specifically arm talent. However, rushing ability is also a factor here, given its importance in the modern game. Winning at the highest level still requires success from the pocket, but more offensive coordinators are embracing quarterbacks who offer mobility, as it raises the floor of an offense and puts greater stress on opposing defenses.

"The true height of a quarterback’s ceiling ultimately comes from their arm. And while size isn’t a strict requirement, it can be an advantage. That doesn’t mean they have to be 6-foot-4 or taller, but size can certainly help. From a physiological standpoint, the bigger a quarterback is, the more muscle mass they typically have, which can translate to greater overall strength--including arm strength."

For mentality, Sikkema wrote, "There are big, tall, strong quarterbacks who don’t have the mentality to make the throws needed to win ball games in the NFL. To have a high ceiling, a quarterback must be willing to take risks. They must push the limits--flirting with a turnover-worthy play (TWP) and the 'how in the world did they make that throw?'

"The best quarterbacks are the ones who minimize mistakes while still taking the necessary risks, but above all, they have to be brave. A low turnover-worthy play rate can make for a high-floor quarterback--one that coaches might believe they can develop and maximize. But if that quarterback isn’t willing to push the ball downfield or into tight coverage a few times per game, they won’t win a Super Bowl--not in a league filled with elite, otherworldly quarterback talent."

Using metrics, Sikkema came to a conclusion that will surprise many; he found that the highest ceiling in the draft belonged to Alabama's Jalen Milroe.

"He possesses the ideal physical profile, combining elite dual-threat rushing ability with a rocket arm and a big-time throw mentality," he wrote. "Of course, a full scouting report would also highlight his concerns--namely, inconsistent ball placement (potentially impacted by his smaller hands), how long he holds onto the ball, and a high number of turnover-worthy plays. Because of these factors, he’s likely the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback in the class."

Ensure you follow on X (Twitter) @HondoCarpenter and IG @HondoSr and never miss another breaking news story again.

Please let us know your thoughts when you like our Facebook page WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE