Raider’s Offense Examined by NFL Executives
LAS VEGAS, Nev. -- As the sun began to nestle behind the beautiful mountains that stand guard over the Las Vegas valley on Sunday night, the Raider Nation was celebrating its first winning streak of the 2023 NFL regular season.
But like a body pain that won't go away, hidden by the celebrations and the echoes of "RRRAAAAIIIIIDDDDDEEEERRRSSS" that could be heard in the bowels of $2-billion Allegiant Stadium, was the angst of a team.
Thanks to superstar defensive end Maxx Crosby, DT Bilal Nichols, and Defensive Coordinator Patrick Graham's band of merry misfits defense scoring a safety to close out the victory, the Raiders finally, after six games, got to 20 points in a contest. It doesn't change that the offense has not scored 20 or more points all season.
Before taking the Raiders job, Coach Josh McDaniels had been universally lauded as an "Offensive Genius" around the NFL. While that was a title given to him not because of reputation, it was one given because of production. Facts. He earned it.
McDaniels didn't forget how to coach. His offenses in New England were prolific, with success on offense, and were among the most dangerous at scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
In Las Vegas, his offenses are not only not dangerous, but his red zone offensive success with scoring touchdowns is as scarce as self-discipline on the Las Vegas strip.
Why?
It would be unfair to say that McDaniels forgot how to coach on the plane ride to the desert. So why are the Silver and Black offenses so anemic?
Las Vegas Raiders Josh McDaniels has a proven track record of offensive success, but that was in New England, and he has to get his Silver and Black attack going.
Darrell Craig Harris, Raiders Today
One NFL Executive quickly saw the issue before this week's Patriots game when he told me: "No one is remotely concerned about the Raiders throwing deep." This is from a man whose teams have competed many times against McDaniels while he was in New England.
That same executive who praised McDaniels as a "genius" to this reporter when owner Mark Davis plucked him from the grip of Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots elaborated.
"Every time we played Josh and New England, we had to game plan and work on the deep threat," the executive said. "Look at the people loading the box; they aren't saying it, but to anyone that knows football, that is a complete disrespect of the long ball, and Josh knows it. The fact that it isn't changing tells you one thing: Josh is not using it is a recognition of a real problem."
What is the problem? "It has to be killing Josh, and it means he has no confidence in his quarterback to do it," the executive added.
With respect to McDaniels, he was asked after his decisions against the Pittsburgh Steelers if he lacked confidence in his offense, and he said: "No."
His actions speak louder than his words.
I asked McDaniels on Monday how critical the long ball is in his offensive attack.
"I think you always want to be able to do that," McDaniels said. "And at times, we've had opportunities. We threw it down the field a handful of times yesterday. We hit the one to Tre [Tucker] down the middle of field, which was a big play there in the third quarter."
McDaniels didn't publicly acknowledge that the Tucker play was when Jimmy Garoppolo was out of the game and that veteran backup quarterback Brian Hoyer salivated when Tucker was open down the field and took the 48-yard shot.
Time and time again this season, Garoppolo has either failed to see or refused to throw wide receivers down the field wide-open for all the world to see.
The world and Garoppolo's teammates and upcoming opposing defenses can see it. McDaniels sees it.
McDaniels added: "We missed some other opportunities, so those plays generally come down to a lot of people doing the right thing."
I agree, Coach, especially when it comes to your quarterback.
McDaniels is 100 percent correct. His team did miss some of those opportunities, many of them, in nearly every game.
In the words of Coach Nick Saban of Alabama: "If you are allowing it, you are coaching it."
Despite fans' opinions, McDaniels is too good of a coach, too good of a planner who keeps his eyes on the smallest of details to have not noticed.
I have been told by people inside the organization that McDaniels is "F---ing pissed" at the amount of missed opportunities from the Raiders attack. He should be. After six games, why isn't it getting fixed?
McDaniels further described the situation: "You never can predict when you're going to have a really clean opportunity to do that based on what the defense chooses to do. But when they do it, as the Tucker play would show us, when they do that and leave the middle of field exposed, or the deep part of the field exposed, it really comes down to an execution play then."
There it is. For those who think McDaniels' answers drip with hyperbole and fluff, they aren't. But you do have to listen.
"It comes down to an execution play then."
He is 100 percent correct.
The problem is that his hand-picked quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, isn't executing on the deep plays
You can say that Garoppolo being under pressure is the reason, but the reason for the pressure is that teams are stacking the box and blitzing because they have no fear of the Raiders' downfield execution.
Blaming the offensive line is a popular but not an inaccurate excuse.
We are talking about the Raiders. The NFL team is known for instilling fear by striking the opponents downfield since the Davis family has owned the team.
It is almost sinful to accuse the Silver and Black of not being respected by the NFL for attacking with the deep ball.
McDaniels concluded by saying: "Does the quarterback make a good throw? Does the receiver run a good route? Do they finish the play with the ball? And we had some opportunities yesterday, and I'm disappointed we didn't come up with a few more of those. But we're going to keep working on them because they obviously can help us. That cuts out a ton of plays from a drive. Instead of having to execute seven more plays, you get one. So, I'd take all of them that we can get, clearly."
One member of an organization that the Raiders have already played this year told me: "You have to take away what teams do best."
He continued: "With all those weapons on offense, we decided to invest in stopping Josh Jacobs by stacking the box, and if it wasn't a run, subsequently using all those guys up front to rattle Jimmy so he gets rid of it. I don't think he is confident that he can get the ball down there."
He added in words that would make Al Davis turn over in his grave: "Until he (Garoppolo) shows us, we have no respect for the Raiders and the deep ball. We dared them to beat us that way."
He concluded,"In New England, McDaniels would punish you for something like that; he loved being dared, and he made you pay." But, in New England, he had quarterback Tom Brady.
I spoke to multiple people around the league about the reasons for the Raiders' lack of success throwing deep and the impact on the running game and the offense overall.
One contacted me after we talked and said: "After our conversation, I looked at the analytics, and to say that the issue is the offensive line isn't true. The numbers tell you that while the offensive line hasn't been elite, they haven't been trash. (Garoppolo) has had plenty of enough time to hit it downfield; he either has no confidence that he can or just isn't doing it. I can't crawl into his head, but that is a fact. He hasn't had time every play for sure, but he has had plenty of time enough to throw the damn ball downfield."
He added: "Without a deep threat, that offense with all those weapons is impotent. Successful or not, they have to get the ball downfield, or at least make people think they are going to try; until then, the NFL is a copycat league, and the blueprint for stopping the Raiders' offense is out there, and no one is too prideful not to use it."
The Raiders are sputtering in every area of their $102-million offense that has more legitimate weapons than I have excess pounds.
The NFL knows it, McDaniels and the Raiders know it, and you and I know it.
McDaniels said it best: "It comes down to an execution play," and either Garoppolo has to start earning the deal that has the franchise married to him for the rest of 2023 and 2024, or McDaniels is going to have to find someone who will.
Owner Mark Davis wanted the Josh McDaniels system. Until the deep ball threat is relevant, he isn't getting it.
Say what you want about Davis, he is a talented and successful businessman. He doesn't mind paying for what he wants, but he expects to get it.
After six games, there are no excuses. Garoppolo's health isn't an excuse; the franchise signed an oft-injured quarterback, which is what they have.
This is the offensive line that McDaniels wanted; these are the receivers McDaniels wanted, and spending $102 million on this offense is what he wanted.
Who cares how the deep-ball threat finds its way into the ballgame? It just has to find its way.
That is on McDaniels. We know he can do it, and I expect him to do it. He can't, however, call the play and run on the field and "execute" the play.
Say what you want about McDaniels; his quarterback is letting him down -- the quarterback whose contract (McDaniels gave him) has this franchise married to him through next season.
But he controls who he trusts to do it, and if Garoppolo doesn't, McDaniels must do something different or change the system.
McDaniels owes his team, which hasn't quit on him because less-than-20 points per game but beat the New England Patriots, although it isn't a sustained plan of attack in the modern National Football League.
Why it isn't working isn't the problem for the fans; it sits in the chair in the office with the sign on the door: Josh McDaniels, Head Coach.
McDaniels has to fix it; he knows it.
The Silver and Black will head out on the road to take on the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Oct. 22, at 1:05 p.m. EDT/10:05 a.m. PDT.
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