OUTCOACHED! Did Sean McVay's Biggest Flaw End Rams Season in Playoff Loss at Lions?
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in football and is undoubtedly one of the biggest reasons his team found the success it did in 2023.
With all of McVay’s strengths as an offensive innovator, as a leader of men, and as a builder of culture, his résumé is outstanding. He’s taken two quarterbacks to the Super Bowl, winning one, and may have done an even better job with this year’s team.
But he was out-coached on Sunday night, and it played a role in ending Los Angeles’ season.
The Rams lost to the Detroit Lions, 24-23, in the most intriguing game of Super Wild Card Weekend. His team played well: no major special teams gaffes, no regrettable turnovers.
However, twice in the fourth quarter, McVay was forced to choose between daringly attempting to win the game or pushing hope later into the night. He chose wrong both times.
The first came down 24-20 in Detroit’s red zone. With just over eight minutes remaining, the Rams took 12 plays to drive 79 yards and set up a fourth-and-8. Given the distance, McVay opted for a Brett Maher field goal – immediately vindicated by his make.
However, ESPN’s decision model preferred going for the lead, despite the risk. A fourth-down attempt would have given Los Angeles a 35.5-percent chance of winning, rather than the 32.7-percent chance from a field goal. A first down wasn’t particularly likely – only 35.9 percent – but the lead it would have provided was more valuable than cutting a four-point lead to one.
On McVay’s final offensive drive, he once again had the chance to put the ball in the hands of his holder and the foot of Maher. Down one with just over four minutes remaining, the Rams faced a fourth-and-14 from the Lions’ 44, setting up a punt or a 61-yard field goal.
That sounds preposterous, but Maher’s strength is his power, Ford Field eliminates the elements, and McVay had already called two timeouts. A field goal in that situation isn’t very likely to succeed, but neither is stopping Detroit’s late-game offense. The Lions were going to get the ball with the opportunity to burn the clock anyway – how much would a miss really hurt?
ESPN’s model projected the field goal to give them a 34.4-percent chance at the Divisional Round. A punt (or an ill-advised conversion attempt) gave Los Angeles just over a 30-percent chance.
Perhaps Maher would have missed, or Detroit would have scored, or some myriad of other outcomes had come to fruition. Those possibilities are left unrealized, the results of a bet left unplaced. It would be arrogant to say those decisions alone cost the Rams the win.
Yet, coaches are judged for the processes behind their decisions, and McVay’s conservative nature did not put Los Angeles in the best position to succeed. He’ll go back to the drawing board, and when he leads the team out of the tunnel in September he’ll do so as one of the league’s elite coaches.
Sunday’s loss, however, was a reminder that he is an unfinished project and one that may require some rewiring when it comes to late-game decisions.
