Brees and Saints remain favorites despite Brady's arrival to the NFC South
The rivalries within the NFC South have always been likened to high school and college football in the south, where the traditions between teams and fans are bitter, tense, and epic. The 2020 NFC South will not be any different. New Faces will debut in the division with Tom Brady, Emmanuel Sanders, and Todd Gurley. Brady has Bucs fans believing this could finally be their year to emerge as a favorite. Sorry to disappoint. New Orleans still remains the favorite for a fourth-straight NFC South title.
New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton in the second half against the Miami Dolphins at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Here are the coaches and players set to battle for the NFC South Championship:
Head Coaches
- Sean Payton - Saints (131-77 Reg.)/(8-7 Playoffs), 13 yrs.; 1 Super Bowl Championship, AP Coach of the Year
- Dan Quinn - Falcons (43-37 Reg.)/(3-2 Playoffs), 5 yrs.; 1 Super Bowl
- Bruce Arians - Buccaneers(56-39 Reg.)/(1-2 Playoffs), 6 yrs.; 2x AP Coach of the Year
- Matt Rhule - Panthers (0-0) Reg.)/(0-0 Playoffs), 0 yrs.
Nov 22, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) and New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) talk after their game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks
- QB Drew Brees - Saints, 19 Seasons; 1x Super Bowl Champion, 13x Pro Bowls, 1x All-Pro, Walter Payton MOY, 2x AP OPOY
- QB Matt Ryan - Falcons, 12 Seasons; 1x MVP, 4x Pro Bowls, 1x All-Pro, 2x AP OPOY
- QB Tom Brady - Buccaneers, 20 Seasons; 6x Super Bowl Champion, 3x NFL MVP, 14 Pro Bowls, 3x All-Pro, 2x AP OPOY
- QB Teddy Bridgewater - Panthers, 5 Seasons; 1x Pro Bowl
Team Leaders
- Saints - Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Michael Thomas
- Falcons - Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, Ricardo Allen, Deion Jones
- Buccaneers - Mike Evans, Shaquill Barrett, Lavonte David
- Panthers - Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Shaq Thompson
Key Players
- Saints - Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Marshon Lattimore, Sheldon Rankins, Andrus Peat, Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk, Larry Warford, David Onyemata, Jared Cook, Erik McCoy, Latavius Murray
- Falcons - Takkarist McKinley, Dante Fowler, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst
- Buccaneers - Chris Godwin, Devin White, O.J. Howard, Vita Vea
- Panthers - Donte Jackson, Curtis Samuel, Kawann Short
Oct 27, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) celebrates with quarterback Drew Brees (9) after making a fourth quarter touchdown catch against the Arizona Cardinals at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
THE ODDS STILL FAVOR THE SAINTS
New Orleans Saints' six NFC South titles are the most in the division since its formation in 2002. Each team has made a Super Bowl appearance and each has won at least 3 division titles in that same time span. New Orleans has won three consecutive division crowns. However, the Saints will face a new challenge to their division supremacy - Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady’s arrival will give Brees and the Saints tough competition in 2020. Odds Shark still believes in the Saints and has them winning again over the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
New Orleans Saints | -125 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +200 |
Atlanta Falcons | +600 |
Carolina Panthers | +1400 |
Odds as of March 19, 2020 at Betline |
Tampa Bay's odds dramatically increased when Tom Brady agreed to join the Bucs on March 18th. Their odds jumped from +5000 to +1200 with the odds makers in Vegas. Brady has been highly successful over his career with the Patriots when he faced NFC South teams. According to Sportsline, Brady is 12-4 versus the NFC South (including the Bucs) in his career.
Overall, Brady is 12-4 straight up vs. NFC South foes (including Bucs) in the regular season – Brady's AFC East Patriots played the NFC South every four years. Brady has completed 66 percent of his passes for 4,526 yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a rating of 98.6. Brady last faced the NFC South in 2017 and New England beat Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans but was upset at home by Carolina (3-1 ATS mark for Pats in the four). Sportsline
Here is another view of how Tom Brady's arrival has had an impact in the NFC South:
The one caveat is that Brady in now a Buccaneer and not a Patriot. Bruce Arians is a very good coach, but he is not Bill Belichick.
January 18, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in attendance during UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
THE ARMS RACE
The NFC South can boast having three NFL quarterbacks with over 50,000 career passing yards in Drew Brees (77,416), Tom Brady (74,571), and Matt Ryan (51,186). Bridgewater has 7,652 career passing yards.
Let's examine the quarterbacks' receiving targets and their reception statistics in 2019:
- Brees: WR Michael Thomas (149/1725 yds), WR Emmanuel Sanders (66/869 yds), TE Jared Cook(43/705 yds), and RB Alvin Kamara (81/533 yds)
- Brady: WR Mike Evans (67/1157 yds), WR Chris Godwin (86/1333 yds), TE O.J. Howard (34/459 yds), TE Cameron Brate (36/311 yds)
- Ryan: WR Julio Jones (99/1394 yds), WR Calvin Ridley (63/866 yds), TE Austin Hooper (75/787 yds)
- Bridgewater: WR D.J. Moore (87/1175 yds), RB Christian McCaffrey (116/1005 yds), WR Curtis Samuel (54/627 yds)
Brees and Bridgewater's connection with Michael Thomas in 2019 was the best in the NFL at 149 receptions and 1,725 yards. Free agent signee, Emmanuel Sanders, will enter the Saints facility as their #2 receiving threat for Brees. Tight End Jared Cook was not completely healthy at the start of the 2019 season. As the year progressed, Cook became a lethal weapon for Sean Payton’s offense with 43 catches, 705 yds, and 9 touchdowns. Finally, Alvin Kamara, the Saints top running back, had 81 receptions. His catch total was better than the wide receiver combination of Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith at 30 and 18, respectively. Because of their low production, the signing of Sanders was important for New Orleans to give Michael Thomas a complementary figure in the passing game.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) smiles showing his diamond covered grill during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Let's examine the NFC South's top running backs rushing statistics:
DIVISION RUSHERS
- Saints: Alvin Kamara (797 yds), Latavius Murray (637 yds)
- Falcons: Todd Gurley (857 yds)
- Buccaneers: Jones (724 yds), Peyton Barber (470 yds)
- Panthers: McCaffrey (1387 yds)
Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey were two of the division’s top running backs for 2019. The Falcons' Todd Gurley will enter as one favorite to compete against McCaffrey to lead the NFC South in rushing. The division has not had a consistent 1,000 yard rusher for many years.
DIFFICULT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD
The 2020 NFC South will be an “Arms Race” to the finish. Brees, Brady, Ryan, and Bridgewater will sling the football favorite at least six games against one another this season. They will also face stiff competition from the AFC West and a few of the NFC North teams. New Orleans has a difficult schedule to contend with in 2020. Outside of the NFC South, the Saints will play the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Vikings (Kirk Cousins), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo), Eagles (Carson Wentz), Lions (Matt Stafford), Raiders (Derek Carr), Broncos (Drew Lock), and Chargers (unknown). These offenses and their quarterbacks are dangerous. This is why free agency has been a chess match for New Orleans. By retaining QB Drew Brees and G Andrus Peat, and signing WR Emmanuel Sanders and S Malcolm Jenkins, the Saints are positioning themselves as a favorite in the NFL.
Expect highly contested games each week in the NFC South. Barring injuries, New Orleans still has the advantage because of their coaching staff, quarterback, offensive and defensive lines, and offensive skilled position players in Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Alvin Kamara.
Way to Early Record Predictions:
- Saints: 12-4
- Falcons: 10-6
- Bucs: 10-6
- Panthers: 7-9
We will have more on the New Orleans Saints in 2020 with our Free Agency Tracker and NFL Draft Masterclass. Read more from the Saints News Network during the free agency period.
