How the Steelers Clinch AFC North/Playoff Berth in Week 14
Despite suffering their first loss of the 2020 season last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in the driver's seat of their own destiny: Win out, and you're the number one seed.
Although Kansas City shares the same record of 11-1, the Chiefs' sole loss came within their division, whereas Pittsburgh fell to an out of conference opponent, giving the Steelers the advantage in tie-breakers for conference and division.
A current look at the AFC playoff picture:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) *playoff spot clinched*
3. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
4. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
5. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
6. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
Teams in the hunt: Las Vegas Raiders (7-5), Baltimore Ravens (7-5), New England Patriots (6-6), Denver Broncos (4-8) and Houston Texans (4-8)
Week fourteen will feature a highly anticipated matchup with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, a team that would love to draw within one game of the number one seed over Pittsburgh with a victory.
While the Steelers shouldn't be caught looking ahead to the rest of the schedule, Pittsburgh will play current playoff teams in their final two of three games to close the season out. Needless to say, it's a big game for both teams. Yet Pittsburgh may receive outside intervention to officially punch their ticket to the dance in week fourteen:
How the Steelers can win the AFC North
Pittsburgh wins over Buffalo.
AND
Baltimore wins over Cleveland.
Short and simple: Should the Steelers win and Browns lose, the AFC North crown returns to Pittsburgh after a two-year vacation in Baltimore. Yet the final road to claim division superiority won't prove to be an easy task: Buffalo currently sits as 2.5 point favorites despite ESPN's Football Power Index giving the Steelers a 56.8% chance to pull off the victory, and the Browns are a much different football team than the previous 38-6 drubbing handed to them by the Ravens in the first week of the season.
With the Ravens-Browns game played on Monday night, the Steelers won't know for sure until the final snap of week fourteen whether or not they're AFC North champions, should they emerge from Bills Stadium with a victory.
The benefits of clinching the division? An automatic playoff spot matched with hosting a home playoff game to begin their run.
Yet Pittsburgh's path to the playoffs doesn't solely rely on a win and a Cleveland loss, and the argument can be made the Steelers may easily seal their spot in the AFC's final seven regardless of their outcome.
How the Steelers can Clinch a Playoff Spot
Pittsburgh wins/ties with Buffalo
OR
Las Vegas loses/ties with Indianapolis
OR
Miami loses/ties with Kansas City
OR
Tennessee loses to Jacksonville
There's a variety of outcomes here to digest, with some outcomes more likely than others. Of course, life would be easier if the Steelers simply handled business in Buffalo. Yet if you've been following the team for however long, you'll know Pittsburgh often times simply can't make it that easy.
That's when the handy "OR" portion comes in handy, needing just one of three other outcomes to happen. While it'd be quite the upset if the 1-10 Jaguars emerged victorious over the Titans, I'd be more willing to wager the Colts defeat the Raiders in another close divisional matchup those in the AFC watching.
While no win is simply given in the NFL, most believe the Chiefs are all but set to handle business against the Dolphins on Sunday, ensuring the Steelers qualify for a playoff spot in that scenario. However, with such a tight race between the Steelers and Chiefs for the number one seed, perhaps Steelers fans may prefer Miami pulls off the upset to either distance Pittsburgh from Kansas City or keep them level with the Steelers should they lose Sunday night.
Win probabilities for each team needed for clinching scenario (per ESPN's FPI):
Kansas City: 76.4%
Pittsburgh: 56.8%
Indianapolis: 46.9%
Jacksonville: 23.6%
As the regular season draws to a close, the playoff picture and resulting scenarios will become clearer with more results in hand. While the Steelers have yet to officially clinch a playoff spot, the odds say week fourteen has a good chance of Pittsburgh introducing themselves to the postseason.
Donnie Druin is a Staff Writer with AllSteelers. Follow Donnie on Twitter @DonnieDruin, and AllSteelers @si_steelers.
