Tyler's Takes: Predicting Titans' Ceiling, Floor and Realistic Win/Loss Record
NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans are caught in between two paths forward. They have expensive veterans like Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry on the last year of their contracts, but they haven't built a roster around them that gives them a real chance to win a championship.
On the other hand, the Titans drafted two players in the first three rounds that will back up Henry and Tannehill rather than getting support at need positions while not really using free agency to solve any problems long term.
With that fractured approach to the offseason comes a vast spectrum of outcomes for the Titans in 2023. Let's look at their ceiling, floor and realistic outcome when it comes to wins this season.
The Ceiling - 11 Wins
The Titans have a much easier schedule in 2023 due to finishing in second place in the AFC South. Instead of facing the top teams in the AFC they get to go against the other second-place finishers. After a few years of winning the division and playing other division winners, this is a welcome change.
Not only will the schedule be more advantageous, but the Titans made a change at what I consider the worst spot on the team in 2022, the offensive coordinator. The Titans fired Todd Downing and promoted Tim Kelly. Kelly is in the midst of installing a brand-new offense, not just controlling the offense left by Downing.
If Kelly is the improvement everyone hopes, that alone gives the Titans a chance to be mightily improved. Add in a potential second-year breakout for Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo with a potentially improved offensive line. If all those three things come true and the Titans' defense plays at just their typical level, the Titans should be able to win 11 games and re-take the division crown.
Realistic Range - 7-9 wins
The Titans lost their last seven games of the 2022 season and finished 7-10. They had a league-high 34 players see the injured reserve list throughout the year. Last comes after a 2021 season that saw the Titans lead the league in rostered players at 91. An NFL record as well.
The Titans have consistently been injured and while some call it bad luck, a less optimistic person would say it is a trend. Numerous Titans players have talked about the intensity the Titans practice with during this year's organized team activities. That offseason intensity and the physical nature of the team's play style might be part of the injury issue.
Also, all three factors mentioned above, Tim Kelly's promotion, Burks and Okonkwo's progression and the offensive line's improvement, could not go as well as some hope. If those three things don't go perfectly AND the injuries hit again, the Titans will likely not be able to reach double digits. Even if those three things don't go horribly wrong, just not perfect.
The Floor - 6 Wins
Mike Vrabel has never lost more than 10 games, but this is by far the least talented roster he has had since he became the Titans' coach prior to the 2018 season. The wide receivers are embarrassing. The offensive line looks improved on paper, but the Titans are banking on a lot of things that aren't close to guarantees.
Andre Dillard will most likely be given a chance to play left tackle and while he was a high draft pick in 2019, he was on the bench in Philadelphia and got beat out by a seventh-round pick. There is no guarantee he is a good enough player to be a starter.
Aaron Brewer will move to center from guard, but his size limitations could prevent that from being a solve. Nicholas Petit-Frere struggled in his rookie season at right tackle, so there is a chance he simply isn't a starting-level player.
If all the moves the Titans made don't work and the injury bug returns, the Titans may be in trouble. The defense should be good no matter what, but with Denico Autry hitting the mid-30s and Landry only one year removed from an ACL tear, it's possible the Titans' pass rush isn't as productive as folks hope.
While it would be unfortunate to see, all of these things could not go as planned. The Titans totally ignored wide receiver all offseason and tried to give out no long-term commitments financially. They half-stepped the entire offseason. It could all hit and work out, but it could not as well. The range is 6 wins to 11 wins and it will be exciting to see how things break for them.
Titans Related Stories
Levis Struggles at OTAs: The Tennessee Titans hit the field for another summer practice on Wednesday and one of the biggest stories was the poor play of rookie quarterback Will Levis. Check out highlights, reaction and Levis' personal recap of the day here. CLICK HERE
Kristian Fulton Returns: The Tennessee Titans kicked off their full-team summer practices last week and one notable absence was cornerback Kristian Fulton. Fulton has re-joined the team this week. CLICK HERE
Tannehill or Bust: We've seen them in practice, and it's clear Ryan Tannehill gives the Tennessee Titans the best chance to win games in 2023. CLICK HERE
