Numbers Show Titans' Third-Down Defense Might Be Worse Than You Think
NASHVILLE – Anyone who has seen the Tennessee Titans play this season knows their third-down defense has been (shall we say?) sub-par.
Take a close look at some of the numbers, though. It might be even worse than you think.
Through seven games, Titans opponents have converted 60 times in 97 tries. That is a success rate of 61.9 percent. Three of those teams converted better than 70 percent of the time, five moved the chains on at least half of their opportunities and four were successful on at least 10 tries.
In 2019, no opponent had more than seven conversions in a game and only one did so on more than 50 percent of its chances.
“We got to have 11 guys executing,” coach Mike Vrabel said recently. “We've got it coach better. We've got to execute better. You've got a couple choices, you’re going to play man, you’re going to play post safety zone, you're going to play split safety zone, and pressure. We've got to make sure that we're all on the same page, that we're coaching as well as we can and that we're executing better.”
If they can’t find a solution – or at least a way to get better – the defense will put up some inconceivably bad numbers before all is said and done.
Consider:
• During the Titans era (1999-present), the NFL’s worst third-down defense was that of the 2011 San Diego Chargers, whose opponents converted 49.2 percent of the time. In other words, every defense during that period got off the field more than half the time. Currently, Tennessee has done so fewer than four out of every 10 opportunities.
• That Chargers defense allowed 96 third-down conversions on 195 attempts. At their current pace, the Titans will allow 137, which translates to more than three additional third-down conversions per contest.
• New England had the NFL’s best third-down defense in 2019. Opponents converted just 47 times. Minnesota led the league in 2017 and 2018 and allowed 51 and 58 conversions, respectively. Already, the Titans have allowed more than any of those three.
• The worst Tennessee has done on third down during the Titans era was in 2010, when opponents converted 104 times in all and 43 percent of the time. Those numbers look spectacular compared to the current ones.
• In each of the last four seasons (two under Vrabel, two under former coach Mike Mularkey), the defense allowed fewer than 37 percent conversions and never more than 78 in all.
• No other defense this season is allowing opponents to convert at better than 54.2 percent.
• Just three other teams have allowed more than 50 third conversions in 2020. All three (Dallas, Carolina, the New York Giants) have played one more game than Tennessee.
There is more, of course, but you get the idea.
“It’s the same old stuff that we’ve been talking about,” safety Kevin Byard said. “… But at the end of the day, we just have to be better. If I had the right answer to figure out why we aren’t getting off the field on third down, I would tell you.”
The issue will take on heightened importance Sunday when the Titans face the Chicago Bears at Nissan Stadium.
Chicago leads the NFL in third-down defense this season, having allowed opponents to convert 29.8 percent of the time. Those teams have had 114 third-down snaps against the Bears (17 more than the Titans’ foes) and have moved the chains 34 times (26 fewer than what teams have done against Tennessee).
In the last four games combined, Chicago has given up 13 third-down conversions. The Titans allowed that many in two single contests (Buffalo and Pittsburgh).
“We have to rush better, and we have to cover better,” defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons said. “That’s pretty much what it us. You can get frustrated. During a game it’s like, ‘All right guys, let’s get it going. We’ve got to get off the field.’ Especially if you want to win games, especially against good teams.
“Every week we come in and we’re talking about third down. … That’s in the past. How can we do better on third down this week?”
Traditionally, third-down defense has been a factor in Tennessee’s success.
The franchise has made the playoffs eight times, beginning with the Super Bowl season of 1999. In seven of those the Titans held opponents to less than 40 percent on third down (the exception was 2007), in five they ranked among the NFL’s top 10 and twice (2000 and 2003), had the NFL’s best third-down defense.
“The only thing we can do is come back each and every week and prepare in practice like we’re going to win those situations in the game,” safety Kenny Vaccaro said. “And, hopefully, that’s the case.
“We’ll get it. We’re working hard right now. We’re trying to focus, lock in on the details, make sure we’re communicating, doing all the little things that lead to the mishaps on third down. And I know we’ll get it done.”
