Vikings vs. Redskins Preview: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Vikings need to do to avoid a disastrous upset?

On paper, this shouldn't be close.

The 5-2 Vikings are favored by 16.5 points against the 1-6 Redskins on Thursday Night Football, and for good reason. When the Vikings have the ball, they'll have the advantage. Washington has a respectable defense, but Kirk Cousins is on fire right now for the Vikings offense and has elite weapons in Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs.

When the Redskins have the ball, the Vikings will have the advantage. Case Keenum, returning to U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time, has a very tough task going against a Vikings defense that will want to prove it's better than it looked against the Lions.

One team is, quite simply, miles better than the other.

NFL team EPA per game after week 7. Offense is horizontal, defense is vertical. Up and right are good. Lots of teams along the FLOM (Fisher Line of Mediocrity). pic.twitter.com/r8FefvESsZ

— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) October 23, 2019

But football games aren't played on paper. The last time the Vikings were favored by this much was Week 3 of last season, when the Buffalo Bills came to U.S. Bank Stadium as 17-point underdogs. You probably don't need a reminder that the Bills won that game by 21 points.

So how do the Vikings avoid the upset and get to 6-2 at the midway point of the season? Here are three keys to victory.

1. Don't let Terry McLaurin have a huge game

With all due respect to the 34-year-old Adrian Peterson, the Redskins' biggest offensive weapon is McLaurin, a 24-year-old rookie receiver from Ohio State. He has 419 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns already this season.

Touchdown Terry McLaurin 🔥

(via @Redskins)pic.twitter.com/2EytKp7Z5a

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 13, 2019

McLaurin ran a 4.35 second 40-yard dash at the combine, and has the ability to get up and make contested catches. Given Case Keenum's ability to extend plays (see point number 2) and keep his eyes downfield, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes (or whoever else is in coverage) need to be aware of where the speedy McLaurin is at all times. There aren't many other weapons in this passing game, so he's the clear top priority.

2. Make Keenum uncomfortable in the pocket – but don't let him escape

Vikings fans know all too well how streaky Keenum can be, and how dangerous he can be both when given time to throw and when plays go off script. Behind a raucous home crowd, the Vikings need to make life miserable for Keenum. Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter shouldn't have trouble beating Redskins tackles Donald Penn and Morgan Moses and applying pressure.

What's critical is that once they do, they need to get Keenum to throw the ball away or take a sack. If he escapes the pocket, he is more than willing to take shots down the field or even scramble for a first down. I also expect plenty of disguised blitzes from the likes of Anthony Barr and Eric Kendrick, as Mike Zimmer tries to force Keenum into bad decisions.

The Redskins are going to feed Peterson, but I don't think he'll be able to do much against this Vikings front seven at this stage of his career. Then again, AP isn't someone you want to bet against. If the Vikings can limit the explosive plays from him and force Keenum to sit in the pocket and face the pass-rush, they shouldn't have a hard time putting together a dominant defensive performance against this struggling offense.

3. Keep rolling on offense, even without Thielen, even in primetime

On offense, the Vikings will win this game if they...just keep doing what they've been doing for the entire month of October. That means creative, unpredictable play sequencing from Kevin Stefanski, leaning on Cook, and letting Cousins loose in play-action.

This has a chance to be an extremely run-heavy game for the Vikings offense. The Redskins have a solid secondary, even though they may be missing a few players on the back end. Cornerback Quinton Dunbar is having an incredible season and will make life difficult for Diggs tonight. Safety Landon Collins is a smart, talented football player.

The Redskins have not been able to stop the run this season – they're giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL – primarily due to the poor play of their middle linebackers, Jon Bostic and fifth-round rookie Cole Holcomb. The Vikings will feed Cook and Alexander Mattison all evening.

Most importantly, this offense needs to treat it like any other game. Yes, they're wearing color rush (sorry, "Primetime Purple") uniforms and yes, Cousins is facing his old team for the first time, but the more they can look at this like a noon Sunday game, the better. Don't make it a bigger deal than it is.

It's time for Cousins to start to shake his primetime demons.

Prediction: Vikings 30, Redskins 6