Advanced Stats Like DVOA, EPA Paint Less Disastrous Picture of Vikings' Week 1 Loss
The Vikings' Week 1 loss to the Bengals — a team that won all of six games over the past two seasons combined — has a lot of people already writing them off as a playoff team, much less potential contenders.
That's understandable. The offensive line, outside of Brian O'Neill, was horrific, committing an egregious number of penalties and struggling to pass protect or create holes in the running game. Bashaud Breeland was victimized a couple times in his Vikings debut, while the run defense sprung some leaks in the second half. With three very talented teams up next on the schedule in the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Browns, it's hard to blame anyone who anticipates an ugly season in Minnesota.
Power rankings are a reactionary piece of content that hold little real value, but they do give an example of the national perception of the Vikings. After opening the season in the 15-22 range, the Vikings' loss in Cincinnati dropped them into the bottom ten in the league, with every major outlet putting them between 23rd and 26th this week.
I'm not here to argue that the Vikings deserve to be higher. I just think it's worth pointing out that the advanced stats don't paint quite the same picture of a bottom-ten team.
In Football Outsiders' Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Vikings' Week 1 performance ranked 14th in the NFL. They were 16th on offense, 18th on defense, and second in the league in special teams. The Vikings finished 20th in DVOA last season thanks to the No. 18 defense and No. 31 special teams weighing down the league's 8th-ranked offense.
In Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, the Vikings are also right in the middle of the league after one week, ranking 15th on offense and 14th on defense.
When the Vikings weren't shooting themselves in the foot with penalties that put them behind the 8-ball in terms of down and distance, they played pretty well. They started out well on defense, holding the Bengals to 26 rushing yards in the first half and finishing with five sacks. On offense, they rallied from a 14-point deficit by moving the ball effectively in the second half. If Dalvin Cook's controversial fumble gets overturned, they probably win the game and the conversations this week are much different.
Those are some of the reasons why Mike Zimmer still thinks the Vikings can be a really good team going forward if they clean up the penalties. It was a disappointing opener, there's no doubt about that, and the schedule over the next few weeks is tough. But the underlying metrics show that the Vikings probably aren't as bad as their current national perception — and that they'll have a chance to bounce back and pull off some upsets in the coming weeks if they can correct some of their mistakes.
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